All Signs are Pointing to Al Horford Finishing His Career with the Celtics

Al Horford's future is a genuine question mark for the Boston Celtics. The soon-to-be 39-year-old (his birthday is on June 3) is heading for unrestricted free agency. Yet, there's no denying that Horford remains one of the most important members of Joe Mazzulla's rotation.

The veteran center is proof that some things do get better with age. Even now, with a championship ring on his finger and his knees undoubtedly starting to creek, he has spellbinding moments of game-changing quality. Perhaps that's why his future is becoming such a discussion point as we slowly edge toward the postseason.

It doesn't help that just two weeks ago, Jake Fischer reported that some opposing teams could be circling Horford once the free-agent market opens up.

“After a tremendous campaign helping to offset Porzingis’ various absences, Horford will be the one rotation Celtic entering free agency this summer,” Fischer reported via a March 28 edition of The SteinLine Newsletter.” Replacing this season’s $9.5 million salary with a minimum contract next season would certainly help with Boston’s tax bill, too...Boston, mind you, has lost Horford in free agency before and more than one rival cap strategist out there has indicated that the 38-year-old could well attract offers starting at the projected $6 million taxpayer midlevel exception.”

Luke Kornet is also heading into the open market.

Both big men have been core components of Boston's big man rotation, impacting games in their own ways. So, the risk of losing them both is a worrying proposition.

Fortunately, we have two reasons to believe that Horford will be sticking around beyond this season. The first came via an interview with Steve Bulpett of Heavy on Sports.

“I want to keep playing,” Horford told Bulpett. "...I just look at the opportunity that’s in front of us now, and, you know, you’ve got to take advantage of this. You play in the league a lot of years, and to be in a team that’s contending and playing at a high level, I mean, it doesn’t get any better than that...Having a group of guys like this, I think we help one another...I feel like we try to make the game easier for each other, and we can lean on one another. We've got a good thing going."

The second came during a sideline discussion with John Fanta shortly after the Florida Gators (Horford's alma mater) won the national championship on Sunday.

"He's (Walter Clayton Jr.) just a winner," Horford said. "He knows how to play. And I know that I'm going to be playing against him next year in the pros, in the NBA. Maybe he'll be with us. Who knows? I'm sure he'll be playing in the NBA."

Both of those comments had one common theme: the use of the words "us" and "we". Horford is still associating his future with the Celtics – whether that's by design or simply a Freudian slip is open for interpretation. Nevertheless, if you're a Celtics fan, then it's fair to try to read between the lines – Horford wants to stick around.

At this point, it's safe to assume most of us are aware of Boston's cap issues and their impending $500 million payroll for next season. It's also a safe bet that we've heard, or read, Wyc Grousbeck's comments on being a second-apron team. Just to be sure, though, here's the portion I'm alluding to.

“You can’t stay in the second apron,” Grousbeck said during an appearance on WEEI. “Nobody will. I predict for the next 40 years of the CBA no one’s gonna stay in the second apron more than two years…It’s not the luxury-tax bill. It’s the basketball penalties, OK? The new CBA was designed by the league to stop teams from going crazy.”

The Celtics roster is going to look different next season. I think it's unavoidable that some players are set free in the search of ducking under the second apron. We will explore which players could potentially be heading for the exit in greater detail once the playoffs have wrapped up. For now, the focus is on winning a championship.

However, I do like the idea of heading into the playoffs knowing that Horford isn't a flight risk. He's too important to Boston, both on the court and in the locker room. His brand of hands-off, lead-by-example-while-allowing-others-to-lead leadership is rare. And his penchant for stepping into a key role when his team is short-handed or has its back against the wall isn't something that's easily replaced or replicated.

Horford is to Boston what Udonis Haslem was to the Miami Heat – only Horford has remained impactful. It's no coincidence that out of the Celtics' seven most-used rotations, Horford is present in four of them – all of which have a positive NetRating this season.

The Celtics championship window is wide open. The rest of the NBA is doing whatever it can to catch up.

• The New York Knicks added Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns this past summer while also re-signing OG Anunoby (who, by the way, is surging right now).
• The Cavaliers acquired De'Andre Hunter at the trade deadline.
• The Oklahoma City Thunder went out and got Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso over the past 18 months.
• The Los Angeles Lakers added Luka Doncic.
• The Golden State Warriors added Jimmy Butler.

Now isn't the time for the Celtics to lose Horford – not if he intends to continue his career. Yes, he isn't a superstar. And yes, he's not a franchise-altering name. Yet, even at the age of almost 39, he's a true game-changer, especially in areas that don't show up on the box score.

"Oldest guy on the team and he had the most energy in the last game of the road trip," Tatum said of Horford following the March 31 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. "We needed him big tonight. That was a special performance."

When it comes to contract negotiations, the Celtics likely won't need to match outside offers at the full taxpayer MLE ($6 million). Given Horford's clear affinity for Boston and his championship aspirations, inking him to a veteran minimum deal could be an option. If not, then maybe something in the $3-$4.5 million range would work on a 1+1 type of structure.

While his next contract with the Celtics will likely represent a pay cut from Horford's current $9.5 million salary, it would give Boston somewhat of a reprieve by lowering their luxury tax bill. For Horford, at this stage of his career, the right situation may matter more than maximizing dollars – especially since he's already earned over $279 million during his career.

Of course, there's also the Kristaps Porzingis of it all. Boston's 'Unicorn' is far from a guaranteed starter during the playoffs, as his health is a consistent concern. He's missed almost half of the season due to injury and/or illness. Therefore, having an elite back-up center such as Horford, who can thrive as a starting big, part of a double-big lineup, or when coming off the bench, is a luxury most teams crave.

Factor in the chance that Porzingis is either injured or moved on next season, and Horford's presence on the Celtics grows in importance.

Ultimately, the Celtics' front office faces difficult decisions this summer as they navigate the punitive second apron restrictions. But letting Horford walk shouldn't be one of them. His leadership presence, playoff experience, positional versatility, and continued effectiveness at both ends of the floor create value that transcends his age and salary.

While some roster changes appear inevitable, the signs point to Horford remaining in green and white.

For a team with championship aspirations, maintaining continuity with key culture-setters like Horford could be the difference between hanging another banner and falling short – Which is likely why Brad Stevens set such a big onus on continuity last summer.

What do you think? Should the Celtics prioritize bringing Horford back? At what price point? And what if it means losing Luke Kornet?

Let me know in the comments!