Celtics vs. Magic Playoff Primer

The NBA playoffs are here, and the Boston Celtics are set to battle the Orlando Magic in a Round 1 showdown.

This is the same Magic team that’s 6-4 against Boston over the past two seasons.

The same Magic team that took two of three matchups this year.

But this is the playoffs — where the defending champs unleash Jayson Tatum, who sat out both of those losses and will undoubtedly be ready to dominate from opening tip.

Setting the stage

Coming into this series, there will be a lot of focus on the Magic's defense. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando leads the league in defensive 3-point frequency. That means they're limiting opposing teams from taking shots on the perimeter, with just 35% of their opponents' offense coming from deep.

Orlando also finished the season with the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. But that got me wondering, how much does that defensive rating change when they're facing a top-10 offense? The answer? It doesn't. Orlando remains the 2nd best defense when facing an elite offensive team in the NBA.

The only difference is that they allow roughly 3 points more per 100 possessions when guarding a top-10 offensive threat. The Magic are going to be one of the hardest tests Boston's offense has faced in a while. Figuring out how to break down Orlando's half-court defense may lead to some scrappy runs of play. However, this is exactly the sort of test you want early, as it will force Mazzulla's team to shift into a higher gear.

Another reason to remain confident is that Boston sits third in the NBA for offensive rating when facing a top-10 defense. They average 117.5 points per 100 possessions. Furthermore, they're shooting the rock at a 55.3 effective field goal percentage, ranking them sixth in the NBA.

We can also flip this on its head and look at how the Magic fare when facing an elite defense. I mean, the Celtics finished the season in the top five for defensive rating, and Orlando has one of the worst offenses in the NBA.

Orlando participated in 22 games against teams with a top-10 defense this season, struggling mightily. They were shackled across the board, ranking 28th in the NBA for points per 100 (105.2), 29th for eFG% (49.2), and 18th for turnover percentage (15.6%). To add further context, the Magic have a -6 NetRating when facing one of the league's better defensive teams.

It's here, when diving deeper into the weeds of each team's production, that the Celtics' analytical edge shines through. Yes, the Magic are an elite defensive team, but Boston has been cooking those all year. And yes, the Magic are a poor offensive roster, but things become even more bleak when faced with a defense as talented as Boston's.

Before we even get into the matchups, Xs and Os, or anything else, it's clear why the Celtics will be favorites heading into this series.

Talking of which...

The Top-3 Matchups

Let's start with the one everyone is excited about:

Jayson Tatum vs. Paolo Banchero

As you can see from the above graphic, Tatum has edged out Banchero in all but one statistical category this season. The Celtics superstar will be the best player in this series, as will likely be the case all the way through the playoffs (or at least until the Finals.)

There's also the added spice of the friendship between Banchero and Tatum, and how both are looking to put that to one side once they step between the lines.

Here's what Banchero said about the impending matchup.

“I’ve known Jayson since I was going into college,” Banchero said, via Masslive. “I see him every summer. A guy that I’m very familiar with. One of the guys I go to for advice and stuff like that. Obviously, now, we’re competing. The best way for me to show my respect is to give him my best effort and go at him as much as I can. I’m excited for the matchup and I’m just excited to be in the playoffs in general.”

And here's what Tatum had to say:

"He's trying to lead his team," Tatum said. "...It's just shifting your mindset to, 'it's the playoffs.' No friend out there. Nothing else matters except doing everything I can to help my team."

The matchup between these two Duke products projects to be a blockbuster. Banchero is the more physical, and Tatum is the more skillful and diverse. Furthermore, Tatum has significantly more postseason experience than his Magic counterpart. He knows how to win, he knows what it takes to be a star, and he's a threat to drop a 50-point triple-double on your head.