Ageless-Al is still fighting
Is Al Horford washed? That seems to be a question floating around at the moment.
Horford turns 38 in 20 days. June 3, to be exact. He’s been coming off the Celtics bench for most of the season. With Kristaps Porzingis out of the rotation due to injury, Horford has been thrust into the starting lineup. Except for Saturday’s win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Joe Mazzulla has kept Horford’s minutes within the same range as when he was coming off the bench to begin the postseason.
The problem — if there even is one — is that Horford is a high-level backup at this late stage of his career. He isn’t a starter anymore. He can hang in spot starts.
Exploring Horford’s defense on Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell found success against Horford on Saturday. He shot 6-of-11 when matched up with the Celtics big man. Four of those shots came from the perimeter. However, the numbers don’t tell the whole story — at least, not those numbers.
Yes, Mitchell got his shot off, and yes, 54.5% of those shots (when facing Horford) went through the net. But no, he didn’t have the easiest of times. Horford stayed connected to him and had a hand in his face on each of those shots.
The Cavs wanted the Mitchell-Horford matchup on the above play. They got the switch, and their star guard tested the veteran’s lateral quickness. Horford stayed in front of Mitchell for the entire time. He contested the shot and allowed minimal space. Mitchell got the bucket, but how much of that is down to him being one of the best-scoring guards in the NBA? And how much of it is on Horford?
On Saturday, Mitchell took 22 shots. 12 of them were on the perimeter. According to NBA Stats, 3 of those looks were tightly contested, 7 were tightly contested, 8 were open shots, and 4 were wide-open shots.
Here’s how he fared.
Very Tightly contested: 1-of-3
Tightly contested: 5-of-7
Open: 7-of-8
Wide Open: 1-of-4
Having gone back and watched all of Mitchell’s shots when matched up with Horford (which you can do by clicking here), it’s safe to assume most of those “very tightly contested” and “tightly contested” shots were against the aging big man.
The above clips show the most open shot Mitchell got against Horford. Once again, Cleveland wanted the switch. They ran a side PnR to get a matchup they deemed favorable. A quick step back created some separation. Nevertheless, Horford, being the veteran he is, quickly recovered. His footwork allowed him to give a slither of space so he could contain a potential drive before he pushed off his back foot to close out on the shot and get his hand into Mitchell’s shooting motion before the release.
What more can you ask for?
Your 38-year-old backup big answered the call and played tough defense on the opposing team's best player despite the offense hunting that matchup to try and expose his old legs.
Is Horford running out of gas?
Clearly, Horford’s problem isn’t on the defensive end. At least not when being hunted for favorable matchups, when operating as a drop defender or when switching on the perimeter. However, his offensive output has been patchy to say the least.
During Saturday’s matchup, Horford went 1-of-7 from the floor, missing all 6 of his perimeter jumpers. That’s where the Celtics need him to be better. He isn’t big enough to offer a vertical threat as a roll man. He isn’t mobile enough to veer from screen to screen on a consistent basis. And he isn’t explosive enough to continually punish close-outs. The Celtics need him to knock down his pick-and-pop opportunities.
I’m not concerned about a bad shooting night. They happen. Especially when you’re living and dying by the three-point line. What does concern me, is that Horford’s offensive struggles could be a sign that his legs are getting heavy. He’s being relied on to play a big role. He’s guarding some of the best scorers in the league. And he’s playing in a team that likes to push the tempo. Eventually, that will wear down an aging body.
Playing in Mazzulla’s five-out offense means that Horford has to be confident when taking those perimeter shots. His willingness to let them fly will ensure there’s enough gravity around him on offense that the defense has to respect him. It’s worth noting that during the 2022 playoffs, he shot 48% from deep on 4.3 attempts per game — however, last season, he shot 29.8%, and currently, he’s shooting 30.3%.
Boston needs a little bit more consistency from him on the perimeter. My issue is that it’s unfair to ask that of him when he’s already giving you everything he’s got on defense and on the glass.
That’s why…
I would prefer to see Mazzulla tweak his big-man rotation. Luke Korent has been hit-and-miss in this series. He doesn’t project as the ideal big for dealing with Darius Garland and Mitchell as they get downhill or for the movement of Evan Mobley. Perhaps leaning into Xavier Tillman’s skillset could make sense.
Tillman plays a brand of basketball similar to Horford. He’s a solid switch defender. Has the physicality to guard and attack on the block. It is a reliable screener. Makes smart reads and is a capable passer. And is willing — but not consistent — when shooting the three.
If Mazzulla likes what Horford is bringing to the table, then bringing Tillman off the bench is the best way of keeping a similar style of play while not overworking a player who is flirting with his 40th birthday. To me, that makes sense. I mean, we’re only 12 months removed from Tillman giving Anthony Davis fits during the postseason. He’s also shown that he can fit in Mazzulla’s defensive system and has the movement and basketball IQ to thrive as an offensive threat.
The reason I am leaning toward Tillman over Kornet as the primary backup big, is because of how Mitchell looks to manipulate drop coverage. In the above clip, watch his final dribble before he jumps to make the pass for Mobley. See how he escapes and dribbles by one step to his dominant hand? Now, watch it back and pay attention to how it manipulates Horford’s positioning.
The one escape dribble pulls the defending big out of position, opening up the pass to the roller. Imagine that happens higher up the floor, with Kornet as the big man. Do you feel confident Kornet could flip his hips and recover before the shot gets off? Me neither. However, I do feel that Tillman has the hip mobility and lateral quickness to at least provide some rear-view pressure on similar plays.
Of course, Mazzulla could shun Tillman and lean into Neemias Queta as a primary backup. However, I think if we were going to see that experiment, it would have happened already—and I’m talking outside of garbage time.
Another option would be to slide Tatum to the five and run some small-ball lineups. I have some thoughts about that in today’s YouTube video and might expand on them if we see anything semblance of that rotation in the coming games.
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