Beat. The. Heat.

A deep dive scouting report ahead of game-one against the Miami Heat.

We finally know who the Boston Celtics will face in the opening series of the playoffs. A Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat somehow managed to maul the Chicago Bulls and earn themselves an eighth seed. That means the Eastern and Western Conference have repeats of their conference finals matchups in the opening round.

There’s something eerie about Miami. This is how their Cinderella run started last season. Except instead of Butler going down hurt, it was Tyler Herro. The difference is that this isn’t last year’s Celtics team. Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis have added multiple dimensions to the roster. What was once a cuboid is now a dodecagon. The combinations and substitution patterns available to Joe Mazzulla make the Celtics a tough puzzle to try and solve.

In what has become an early tradition of this newsletter, I want to examine what makes the Heat tick and what we can expect heading into the game.

Let’s dive in and ensure we have clear eyes ahead of Sunday’s game one.

Miami: By the numbers

The Heat ended the regular season 16th in the league for offensive rating, averaging 113.3 points per 100 possessions. That leaves them 8.9 points per 100 behind the Celtics per 100. That offensive slump is a key reason the Heat had to endure a play-in tournament battle to qualify for the postseason.

On the other hand, Miami ranked fifth in defensive rating, limiting teams to 111.5 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics were -0.9 points per 100 better off than Erik Spoelstra’s team throughout the season. As such, there was only a marginal difference in how the teams fared when looking to shut down the opposition and control the game's tempo.

With the offensive and defensive ratings set, it’s clear that the Celtics were winning games by a larger margin. They ended the season with a league-leading Net Rating (which is offensive rating—defensive rating) of +11.7 per 100 possessions compared to Miami’s +1.8. The battle, then, will be whether the Heat can impact the Celtics' offense enough to limit their elite-level scoring or whether the Celtics can assert their will on Spoelstra’s team.

Let’s start peeling off some additional layers. All data, unless stated otherwise, is courtesy of Cleaning The Glass.

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is where Miami’s offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Heat are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.

• Around the rim - 28.5%, 28th in the league

• Mid-Range - 35.6%, 1st in the league

  • Short mid-range - 27.1%, 1st in the league

  • Long mid-range - 8.5%, 17th in the league

• 3-Point range - 35.9%, 15th in the league

  • Non-corner 3’s - 24.9%, 22nd in the league

  • Corner 3 - 11%, 3rd in the league

Offensive Shot location accuracy

This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court - the higher the league ranking, the better the Heat are at scoring in those areas.

• Around the rim - 63.1%, 25th in the league

• Mid-Range - 45.3%, 7th in the league

  • Short mid-range - 47.4%, 4th in the league

  • Long mid-range, 38.6%, 23rd in the league

• 3-Point range - 37.5%, 12th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 36.5%, 13th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 39.7%, 12th in the league

Putting that into context

This is a Heat team that struggles getting to, and finishing at the rim. Part of that is likely due to their lack of on-ball creation. And part of it is likely due to Erik Spoelstra’s system. Instead, the Heat favors the mid-range, specifically the short mid-range. That is usually where we see floaters, low-block fadeaways, push shots and step-throughs.

There’s a clear focus on limiting long mid-range jumpers. The likelihood is that most of those shots come via attacking closeouts on the perimeter. What is clear, though, is that the Heat likes to spray the rock out to the corners. They’re a top-10 team in both attempts and conversions.

Bam Adebayo is usually utilized as an offensive hub. He often works around the elbows and the free-throw line. In terms of shot location, the mid-range is the biggest weapon in Miami’s toolbelt. It will be interesting to see how that fares against a drop defense with multiple versatile bigs who can shuttle between the helplines, switch, and provide rim protection with size and length.

Defensive shot location frequency

This is where opposing teams look to generate their offense against the Heat’s defense - the lower the league ranking, the more frequently teams are attacking those spots.

• Around the rim - 28%, 2nd in the league

• Mid-range - 32.4%, 22nd in the league

  • Short mid-rage - 24.3%, 24th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 8.1%, 8th in the league

• 3-Point range - 39.6%, 28th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 28.1%, 24th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 11.5%, 28th in the league

Defensive shot location success rate

This is where opposing teams find success on offense - the lower the league ranking, the more successful teams are from those spots.

• Around the rim - 67.6%, 23rd in the league

• Mid-range - 46.2%, 29th in the league

  • Short mid-rage - 47.1%, 29th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 43.5%, 26th in the league

• 3-Point range - 35.7%, 3rd in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 35%, 5th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 37.6%, 8th in the league

Putting that into context

The Heat like to bait teams into taking a lot of threes. They rank among the worst teams in the league for threes allowed per game but are top-five in defensive field goal percentage on the perimeter. They set a consistent trap, and teams fall right into it. Part of that is likely due to Miami's success in limiting rim attempts, ranking second in the league for shots allowed at the rim per 100.

Interestingly, the Heat’s biggest weapon on offense is also their primary weakness on defense: the mid-range. They’re 22nd in the league for attempts allowed and 29th in the league for defensive field goal percentage.

Clearly, the Heat’s focus on impacting perimeter jumpers and removing the rim is leaving the mid-range area wide open. For most teams, not being able to play “Morey Ball” is a death knell. For Boston, it’s an invitation to get into their post-offense and lean into some of the screening actions they’ve been cooking teams with all season.

Setting the Stage for the Celtics: Dominate the mid-range

Mazzulla’s team has been working toward a series like this all season. The Cerberus of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis have all developed their mid-range offense this season. Brown has become one of the most dangerous mid-range weapons in the NBA, using his pull-up jumper to counter the defense. Tatum’s post-work has seen him become a fearsome player on the high, low and mid-block.

Porzingis’ size, limitless scoring range and ability to shoot over the defense have made him a zone-busting, mid-range-cooking, perimeter-bending Dumbledore within the offensive system.

Between the three of them, with Jrue Holiday operating as an inverted screener and dunker spot threat and Derrick White being the defacto connector, the Celtics should have no problem getting any shot they want in the mid-range.

I think this clip does a great job of showing the Heat’s perimeter pressure and how Brown has added the mid-range jumper as a counter against being played tightly with helpers digging.

In the above clip, Kyle Lowry is playing some intense on-ball defense. Adebayo stunts toward the ball as Brown penetrates, providing some nail help. Brown counters by spinning away from the dig, gathering the ball and shooting over the top of Lowry. That spot is one of Brown’s go-to’s. He’s comfortable there. He’s developed multiple ways of getting to his shooting pocket when being guarded tightly. You’re usually confident that he will win this kind of battle.

Tatum’s ability to work his way into the post, bully his way to his spots and then attack via spin-offs, fadeaways, passing out to open shooters or facing up and taking guys off the dribble, will also be a solid weapon in the middle of the floor.

In the above clip, we can see Tatum draw two, spin to split the defense and nail a floater against a rotating defense. Miami is allowing 47.1% on short mid-range shots, remember. These type of plays fit perfectly into areas the Heat struggle to defend.

As you can see in the above clip, the Celtics have no problem showing patience in the half-court as they look to work the ball into the post — either the high, mid or low. Here, it’s Porzingis who is fighting for a dominant position around the elbow, where he can use his size to shoot over a smaller set of defenders.

Payton Pritchard struggles to generate an angle that he’s happy with, so he feeds Al Horford, who then finds the angle and makes the post-entry pass. Porzingis faces up on the defense and shoots over two guys in his grill to nail the jumper. Credit to the Oklahoma City Thunder for fronting the post-up to deny the bounce pass, and credit to Porzingis for sealing his man to ensure the pass can be made. A good battle all around.

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Why is winning the mid-range battle so important?

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is where Boston’s offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Celtics are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.

• Around the rim - 29.1%, 26th in the league

• Mid-Range - 27.1%, 29th in the league

  • Short mid-range - 18%, 29th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 9.1%, 14th in the league

• 3-Point range - 43.7%, 1st in the league

  • Non-corner 3’s - 33.8%, 1st in the league

  • Corner 3 - 9.9%, 12th in the league

Offensive Shot location accuracy

This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court - the higher the league ranking, the better the Celtics are at scoring in those areas.

• Around the rim - 70.5%, 4th in the league

• Mid-Range - 44.6%, 12th in the league

  • Short mid-range - 44.7%, 13th in the league

  • Long mid-range, 44.2%, 9th in the league

• 3-Point range - 39.3%, 2nd in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 38.1%, 8th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 43.6%, 1st in the league

The Celtics don’t take a lot of mid-range shots. It’s not somewhere their offense comes from on a consistent basis — yes, it’s an area they work out of, mainly to create looks elsewhere. Still, they’re a borderline top-10 offense in the mid-range area. The Heat wouldn’t be expecting Boston to put a heavy focus there to begin the series.

Miami looks to limit shots at the rim and bait well-contested shots on the perimeter. The best way to level out their resistance is to hurt them where they’re most vulnerable. If the Celtics consistently cook Miami in the mid-range, the Heat will be forced to adjust. Perhaps they send two into the post, which, when you have as many threats as the Celtics do, is ideal for opening up high-quality looks from the perimeter.

Maybe they switch their defensive system away from a drop, thus opening up more opportunities around the rim. After all, the Heat are among the best in the league at limiting those shots but among the worst in the league at defending them once they occur.

The mid-range should be used as a vehicle to break the traps Spoelstra is trying to set. That’s what playoff basketball is about, right? Making the opposite team blink first, taking the advantage to get one step ahead — then the battle becomes staying there.

Based on the data we’ve looked at so far, the Celtics’ best chances of implementing their offensive system, is by working out of the post early and often and they attacking the gaps that will inevitably form down the line.

Do the shuffle

Throughout this season, you’ve all read (or heard) me talking about slice and wedge actions. You can find a deep dive I did on some of the Celtics’ go-to plays out of those sets here.

Depending on what coaching tree you come from or what terminology set you subscribe to, those two sets of screens can also be called shuffle screens. The only thing that’s different is the name. The action itself remains the same.

Nevertheless, regardless of what you call those screens, the cut that occurs after the screen has been set is known as a shuffle cut. If you’ve been watching a lot of the home feed on league passes this season, you’ve undoubtedly heard Brian Scalabrine reference these occasionally.

Tatum is the one making the shuffle cut on this action. The Celtics reverse the ball to generate a second side action and force a defensive rotation. Holiday sets the slice screen (a backscreen on the wing to get the screen receiver into the post.) The cut itself is known as a shuffle cut — because, it comes via (what some would call) a shuffle screen.

To help illustrate this further, here is an annotated version of the play.

If the Celtics are going to dominate the mid-range game against the Heat, shuffle cuts will be the battering ram that opens the door. A considerable amount of Boston’s mid-range and interior offense has come courtesy of this cutting movement via slice and wedge screens.

It’s a staple of how the Celtics look to generate interior ball pressure and scoring opportunities. The Heat will likely struggle to defend these actions if they’re hyperfocused on protecting the rim and over-pressuring the perimeter.

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Setting the Stage for the Celtics: Funnel to the rim

Defensive shot location frequency

This is where opposing teams look to generate their offense against Boston’s defense - the lower the league ranking, the more frequently teams are attacking those spots.

• Around the rim - 29%, 3rd in the league

• Mid-range - 33.7%, 26th in the league

  • Short mid-rage - 23.6%, 22nd in the league

  • Long mid-range - 10.1%, 27th in the league

• 3-Point range - 37.3%, 20th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 8.1%, 4th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 29.2%, 28th in the league

Defensive shot location success rate

This is where opposing teams find success on offense - the lower the league ranking, the more successful teams are from those spots.

• Around the rim - 63.6%, 5th in the league

• Mid-range - 42.8%, 13th in the league

  • Short mid-rage - 43.2%, 13th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 42%, 12th in the league

• 3-Point range - 36.1%, 6th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 36.4%, 2nd in the league

  • Corner 3 - 36%, 13th in the league

The Celtics are third in the league for limiting shot attempts around the rim, with opponents getting just 29% of their offense within four feet of the basket. Unlike the Heat, the Celtics are among the league leaders in defensive field goal percentage around the basket, too, ranking 5th in the league by limiting teams to 63.6%.

Miami likes to work in the mid-range, both via drives and via post-ups. The Celtics will let the Heat run as much offense as they want in the middle of the floor — not because they underestimate the value of mid-range scoring, but rather that they’re a reliable defensive team when guarding middies.

The Heat will be aware of Boston’s defensive prowess and how they do almost everything at an above-league-average level. Given the Celtics’ sturdy perimeter defense, and the Heat’s tendency to look for corner shooters, it makes sense for the Celtics to funnel Miami’s on-ball offense toward the rim. The Celtics will be confident of containing those looks and, given their top-5 corner-three defense, will undoubtedly be willing to live with the result of a drive-and-kick offense from the Heat.

Of course, the potential absence of Butler will further blunt the Heat’s offensive upside, especially when working in the mid-range or looking to force defensive collapses on drive and kick actions. Worst of all, though, the Heat lose their battering ram when trying to go through the defense and generate the rim pressure they need to get Duncan Robinson some clean looks on the perimeter.

A quick look at the Zone numbers

It wouldn’t be a scouting report for the Celtics/Heat if we didn’t at least take a quick gander at some numbers on how Miami’s zone has fared this season and how the Celtics have coped with scoring against those styles of defenses this year.

According to Synergy, the Heat have run zone for 1,054 possessions during the regular season. Teams have scored an average of 1.04 points per possession when facing the Heat’s zone system, ranking Miami’s zone in the 60th percentile of all defensive systems in the NBA this season. Overall, opposing teams are shooting 45.4% against their zone defense, with a slight increase when looking at effective field goal percentage — that number sits at 53.9%.

On the flip side, the Celtics have seldom been forced to break down a zone defense throughout the year. They’ve faced that type of defensive coverage for a total of 173 possessions. They’re averaging 1.12 points per possession against the zone. They’re shooting 47.3% in terms of FG% and 57.5% in terms of eFG%.

Overall, the amount of perimeter shooting, post-scoring and off-the-dribble creation the Celtics have on their roster has likely deterred teams from throwing too many zone looks at them. Setting perimeter screens to get Porzingis, Tatum or Brown onto the block via shuffle cuts is a quick way to blow the zone wide open.

Miami will undoubtedly try to muck things up by throwing out some janky zone system. At times, it will work — it’s what the Heat do — and it’s why they’re so hard to beat. Yet, overall, there’s a reason the Celtics haven’t seen much of zone defenses, and that’s because they’re a team that’s constructed to carve them wide open. The only concern will be whether a steady diet of zone defense will seem alien to them, which could take a couple of beats to adjust to.

Three questions I have heading into the game

1. Where is Miami’s on-ball creation going to come from?

   1. Terry Rozier missed both of the Heat’s play-in tournament games. Jimmy Butler is out with an MCL issue. Josh Richardson is dealing with an injury, too. That leaves Tyler Herro as the primary on-ball creation, with Bam Adebayo providing secondary creation via DHOs and screening actions. Boston’s defense is too good and too versatile for Herro and Adebayo to be enough when trying to break them down in the halfcourt. How Spolestra attacks that problem will go a long way to deciding how many games this series stretches out to.

2. Can the Celtics put last year’s series to the back of their minds?

   1. The Miami Heat have been a thorn in the Celtics’ side for years. In a decade or two, the battles these two rosters have endured will be stuff we discuss while sitting at the bar. For now, this is a fierce rivalry. The Celtics are coming into this series as heavy favorites, with a considerably more talented roster and the momentum that comes with owning the best regular-season record in the NBA. Still, last season’s ECF exit will be fresh in Boston’s mind. They will need to find a way to lock those memories away, use them as fuel, and stay focused on the task at hand. The Heat will be physical and combative. The Celtics must stick to the game plan and look to get the series wrapped up as quickly as possible.

3. How much of a factor will Spoelstra be?

   1. Spoelstra is arguably the best coach in the NBA. He’s the guy I class as the best coach in the NBA. No matter what roster he has, he finds a way of making it work. He finds a way of making the Heat competitive, especially in the postseason. Against Mazzulla and the Celtics, Spoelstra will need to dig deep into his stockpile of pixie dust. His team is outgunned and out-skilled. The only advantage Miami has coming into this game is on the sidelines. How Spoelstra coaches throughout this series will be a major factor in the Heat’s chances of forcing Boston into deep waters — especially without Butler.

Do the Celtics have any major weaknesses?

Earlier this week, myself and Greg Meneikis were joined by The Volume’s Jason Timpf to discuss the biggest questions surrounding the Celtics on-court execution heading into the postseason. If you’re looking for additional X’s and O’s discussion points, this Green With Envy podcast episode is for you.

Wrapping it up

Some of us wanted this series. Some of us wanted to avoid it like the plague. None of that matters anymore. Miami is the first team standing in the Celtics way. They’re a speed bump en route to the NBA Finals.

Miami won’t be an easy out. They never are. However, if you want to be the best team in the league, you’ve got to beat the other great teams. This season, the Heat haven’t been a great team. Yet they always find a way to turn it on in the playoffs.

If the Celtics can come out of this matchup unscathed, the win will strap a jetpack on their backs. Beating the Heat got them to the 2022 NBA Finals. It ended their 2023 playoff run. Now, it could propel them to a 2024 championship. This is the first step. This is where the legend (hopefully) begins.

Let’s get it.