Celtics 3 Keys to Victory vs. Nuggets

After a tough loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, the Boston Celtics will undoubtedly be eager to bounce back against the Denver Nuggets later tonight. Joe Mazzulla’s team are 2-1 on their West Coast road trip, and have the chance to head back East with a 75% win rate (3-1 record) if they can overcome Nikola Jokic and the rest of Mike Malone’s team.

Denver is fourth in the West with a 20-14 record. Despite its current seeding, Malone’s team has endured some rough patches this season. Nevertheless, the Nuggets’ roster is constructed in a way that could cause Boston problems.

The Celtics haven’t defeated Denver since November 12, 2022.

Let that sink in.

With that in mind, I thought it would be fun to look at three potential ways the Celtics could look to give themselves an advantage during tonight’s game. After all, heading back home after a successful road trip is always a good confidence booster, especially when you’re trying to wash away the sour taste of a difficult December.

1. Pressure the rim

Last season, the Nuggets’ defensive remit was to deter threes and funnel teams toward the paint. This season, it would appear to be the inverse. Welcome (specific types of) threes and keep teams away from the rim.

Therefore, the Celtics should look to make the most of Denver’s defensive change by putting pressure on the rim and creating threes.

No. This isn’t me saying, ‘Oh, they should abandon the three-point line and move away from the system that won a championship just a few months ago.’ Instead, I am saying, ‘There’s a route to hurting this team, and it starts by pressuring the rim protectors.’

Denver is 6th in defensive rim frequency. That means opposing teams are only choosing to use 30% of their offense within four feet of the bucket. In an era where coaches stress threes and layups, limiting opponents to such a low frequency around the cup is impressive.

However, while the Nuggets are doing well limiting those attempts, they’re faring far worse at actually stopping them. According to Cleaning The Glass, Malone’s team is 22nd in the league for defensive field-goal percentage around the cup. 

The Celtics aren’t a rim-attempt-heavy team. They’re 28th in rim frequency, using 26% of their overall offense within four feet of the bucket. However, Mazzulla’s team is at its best when either driving the lane and kicking out to open shooters or when placing someone in the dunker spot to provide some spacing along the baseline.

If you want to hurt this Nuggets team, it makes sense to pressure the rim, or at least the paint. That way, the Celtics can begin rattling Denver’s defensive structure, forcing early help rotations or more prominent collapses as the Nuggets look to pinch at the elbows or funnel ball-handlers into Nikola Jokic.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Celtics need to up their rim-frequency. I mean, it would be nice, but it’s not necessary. Instead, they just need to threaten some interior scoring — and you can do that while still operating on the perimeter.

Why do I think this is important?

Because the Nuggets are good at baiting teams into shooting threes. They’re 16th in defensive three-point frequency, but they’re 9th in defensive field-goal percentage, both from the perimeter and the corners. Instead of taking what the Nuggets defense is willing to give you, it’s better to create your own looks that fit into what your team deems as a high-quality shooting opportunity.

“If you’re getting open threes, but the process is bad in context to how the defense plays you, and what they’re willing to live with, are they still good shots? Or are you playing into their trap?” — This is a question I asked myself after the March. 7 loss last year.

Part of that comes from making the right reads. Part of that will come from poking and prodding at a team's weak point (which, in this case, is defending the rim), and the other part comes from running actions that exploit a defense.

Denver likes to use Jokic as a drop defender. With Aaron Gordon having missed the last six games, the Nuggets will likely be without their best roaming defender. DeAndre Jordan is also a drop big. Dario Saric is a little more versatile, but can be exploited.

The Celtics will undoubtedly want to draw Jokic, Saric or Jordan onto the perimeter and cook them off the bounce. However, that’s something every team will aim for. Instead, Mazzulla’s team should look to manipulate Denver’s drop coverage, either creating additional space on the perimeter and pulling out the big when the time is right so that no one can rotate over, or attacking a defense that struggles to impact interior shots.