Celtics Mailbag: Can Hunter Slow Down the Cs? + Should Kornet Shoot Threes?

Part 1 of this week's mailbag!

The All-Star break was very much needed for the Boston Celtics and myself. I’m two-thirds of the way through my first season covering the team via this newsletter. I’ve made some mistakes, hit some bumps in the road in terms of consistency, and adjusted goals and expectations along the way.

In many ways, those two-thirds of the season have mirrored the Celtics’ own journey, which is kind of cool. Still, I’ve got lots of room for improvement, and that’s perfect because there is always a way to improve and reach new levels.

Anyway, forgive my anecdotal start to today’s post. Sometimes, it’s easier to reflect this way — plus, I like bringing you all on the journey with me.

Earlier this week, I put out a mailbag request to help get the engine revving again ahead of the season ramping back up. I had five great questions. So, rather than trying to cram my answers into one post, I’m going to split them over today and tomorrow, that way, I can provide more in-depth answers — rather than keeping them short or inundating you with 3000-5000 words.

Let’s dive in!

✉️ Daniel Pak asks: In terms of matchups, do you think Deandre Hunter causes problems for Boston in an ECF series?

🗣️ My take: Wording this is hard. Hunter, as a player, isn’t going to drastically raise the Cavaliers ceiling. However, his addition is built on a ‘the whole is greater than the sum of its parts’ thought process, and I agree with that mentality.

Hunter excels at guarding on the perimeter, specifically when matching up 1-v-1 in isolation. Boston is currently third in the NBA in isolation possessions per game, and the team shoots a 47.3 effective field goal percentage.

He’s got great size, footwork and athleticism. He can guard multiple positions, too — but he’s at his best when picking up threes and fours, two of Boston’s strongest positions due to Tatum and Brown.

Things get a little trickier for Hunter when switched onto guards — which accounts for 41.38% of his total defensive possessions. Still, I think it’s fair to say that Hunter is among the more versatile defenders in the league at present — and that has value. A lot of value.

What’s interesting to me is that Hunter is also a reliable post-defender, which could come in handy against Boston, especially as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have both emerged as scoring threats in post-ups under Joe Mazzulla. Defensively, Hunter should shore up some of the Cavaliers’ weak points, allowing Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley to execute their roles in protecting the rim without being forced into help scenarios as regularly.

It’s also worth noting that Hunter is going to have better defensive players around him in Cleveland, which should allow him to execute his role without being overstretched. The Atlanta Hawks have struggled to develop a defensive identity during the Trae Young era, so I feel like we haven’t seen the best version of Hunter as a three-and-d wing yet.

Talking of offense, Hunter’s value comes on the perimeter and in the long mid-range — meaning he’s highly reliable when attacking closeouts off the bounce. According to Cleaning The Glass, Hunter’s knocking down 40% of his non-corner three-point attempts this season and is hitting 39% of his corner threes, too. He’s also draining 54% of his long middies, although that is a small sample size of 41 shots.

When answering this question, I did get curious regarding Hunter’s overall value as a three-point threat. I think the below chart from The Basketball Index paints a perfect picture and shows how Hunter’s floor spacing can be a serious weapon for a Cavaliers team that has Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Allen all capable of slicing through a stretched defense.

So, to answer your question, yes, I do think Hunter can cause some issues for the Celtics in a playoff series, both as a defender and a perimeter threat. Still, I think his impact comes with how he will elevate the Cavaliers as a unit rather than his individual skill set being a major issue for the Celtics. Nevertheless, Cleveland won’t be an easy out, that’s for sure.

✉️ Rui Monteiro Mascarenhas asks: I was made aware recently by

Ricardo Brito Reis

that that T. Craig only started getting his 3-point shooting after 5 years or so in the NBA - he added it to his “bag”. When do you reckon the Celtics should allow Luke to do that as well? We know we can do it but when will his role evolve? Like Al, for example?

🗣️ My Take: I found the tidbit about Torrey Craig quite interesting, so I went back and looked at his shot profile in terms of frequency and accuracy over his career. Here’s how his three-point attempts look in graph form.

I’ve accumulated his shot attempts and makes for the 20-21 and 21-22 seasons, during which Craig split time between two teams and then calculated his overall shot percentage for each season.

As this graph shows, Craig has also been a medium-high-volume three-point shooter. His perimeter-scoring success rate hasn’t swung too much, though. These numbers do have a garbage-time filter.

As for Kornet, I’m not sure we will see him operating with a green light from deep, at least with the Celtics. That is because of how well he plays his current role. Kornet has found his niche within the Celtics roster, and that niche has carved out a significant bench role for him despite the increasing challenge from Neemias Queta over the past 18 months.

According to Synergy, Kornet is assisting someone on 27% of his total possessions, giving him a 1.62 points per possession rating and a 3.6 AST/TOV ratio, which is ranked as excellent. Furthermore, 67.1% of Kornet’s assists result in three, which is why his points-per-assist sits at 2.7.

In fact, Synergy has Kornet ranked SEVENTH in the NBA for possessions + assists. When you set a minimum of 100 possessions to filter out low-usage players, Kornet jumps to third behind Tre Jones and Chris Paul.

I digress.

Watch the above clip. It’s a simple elbow DHO into a short roll allowing Kornet to create for Derrick White after drawing in the defense with his paint touch. To me, this is where Kornet’s value is.

On offense, Kornet’s role is simple:

• Be a willing and diverse screener

• Provide playmaking out of the short roll

• Use your size to pressure the rim

• Be a DHO creation hub

• Provide spacing in the weakside slot

• And challenge for offensive boards on short rebounds

If the Celtics were to ask Kornet to begin taking threes, it would likely impact his off-ball movement, thus lowering his screening volume and deterring him from being a threat when rolling to the rim. Rather, he would become more stagnant on the perimeter and stick to pick-and-pop actions — which the Celtics already have enough of.

Kornet’s value is that he brings something different to the rotation, and he does it at a high level. Now, this isn’t to say that Kornet isn’t capable of becoming a reliable perimeter threat — we’ve seen a small sample size that tells us there’s something there that could be developed.

Instead, I’m saying that, in terms of his role on the Celtics, asking him to let it fly from deep is counterproductive.

Perhaps things will change if he sticks in Boston long-term. Or, maybe another team would prefer to have him threatening perimeter shots while working out of delay actions.

All of this is to say that I’m not expecting to see Kornet’s role evolve any time soon, at least not on this version of the Celtics. And in truth, I think that’s probably a good thing. The upside is that Kornet has another dimension of his game to develop in the background that could potentially add multiple years onto the backend of his career. I expect him to be a valuable role-playing big for years to come, and for a guy who was clawing to stay in the league a few years ago, that’s a major win.