Mailbag Part 2
Wrapping up the mailbag questions from last week.
Last week, I asked for mailbag questions. Knowing there was a slight dead period in the schedule, I decided to divide the mailbag into two parts. Originally, I planned to post ‘part 2’ over the weekend. However, after extending my daughter’s birthday celebrations, I pushed it until today.
So, let’s dive into the remaining questions.
PattyJahnks asks: I'm wondering your thoughts on the "championship hangover' now that we're about a quarter through the season. When the season started, I think a lot of us expected there not to be much of one. But I think it shows a lot in our defensive effort. Curious about your thoughts!
My response: I’ve been asking myself a similar question, too. I mean, on paper, the Celtics are handling their business. They’re currently second in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating. To me, that’s a fairly well-balanced team. Especially when considering they sit third in Net Rating, too.
Of course, we also have to consider that Kristaps Porzingis has been out of the rotation for most of the season so far, and multiple other guys have missed games. Now, I’m not trying to make excuses, but that is certainly an important factor.
Still, there has undoubtedly been some defensive slippage—even if the numbers say otherwise. I’m not sure whether that’s due to a ‘championship hangover' or personnel issues or whether the team has simply been reducing possessions, knowing there’s a long season ahead.
Right now, I’m trying to stay even-keeled. Yes, there have been some questionable defensive possessions. But those bad possessions often stick out so much due to how solid the Celtics have been in recent years. It’s easier to pinpoint the mistakes when we’re so used to seeing borderline perfection night after night.
So, I expect to see a course correction as the season progresses and the team (hopefully) gets healthy. After all, we’re judging the Celtics based on their performances from last season, so it’s only fair to wait until they have similar circumstances—a healthy roster, rotation continuity, etc.
I know this is kind of a non-answer, but, I feel like it’s a fair one. I agree that there has been somewhat of a regression on defense. Be it rebounding, when to send weakside help, or even containing dribble-drive pentration. However, we’ve also seen countless examples of elite defense and lock-down possessions. So, now, we wait to see how things shake out with a fully healthy rotation that has a string of games together to figure things out.
Seth Hippli asks: How would you compare last years team to this years team? Stats and numbers wise but also the biggest strengths and weaknesses you see could help us or hurt us in our journey to repeat.
My response: First of all, go show the
substack some love!I’m going to shoot down the question about stats and how this iteration of the team stacks up against last year — because the Celtics’ best starting five has less than 150 possessions together. It’s unfair and disingenuous to make comparisons when one area has an enormous sample size, and the other has barely enough possession-by-possession data to quantify.
In terms of strengths and weaknesses, I think we’re pretty much where we were last season. The Celtics still have the strongest starting five in the NBA — although the margin is slimmer thanks to the New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks (maybe) and Cleveland Cavaliers. And, the Celtics still have the deepest top-8 or top-9 rotation in the league.
Couple that depth with elite scoring, ball-handling, processing speed, and defensive talent at every position, and the Celtics still have a ton of things going in their direction.
Now, in terms of weaknesses, I think losing Charles Lee, Blaine Mueller, and Jermaine Bucknor has been an underrated discussion point. Last season, the Celtics had arguably the deepest coaching roster in the NBA. Lee, Sam Cassell and M.azzulla were an elite trio. Having Jeff Van Gundy in an advisory role was also an important part of the team’s setup. So, without four of those guys, there has undoubtedly been a talent drop-off on the sidelines and behind the scenes.
Don’t get it twisted; Boston still has an elite coaching roster. But you can’t deny there was a legitimate talent drain over the summer. For me, this under-discussed area is a potential weakness this season, especially in terms of defensive coordination and the number of elite voices sharing their perspectives.
Michael Ouyang asks: What’s with Jrue Holiday’s corner 3 this year?
My response: I wrote about this recently—well, kind of. Here’s the article I’m referring to.
The article was based around the Memphis Grizzlies decision to leave Holiday wide open in the corner. We’ve hardly had any game since I wrote that piece, so not much has changed.
Honestly, I’m not sure what’s happened to Holiday’s corner three-point jumper — or whether its something that will bounce back as the season continues.
The other way of looking at this is perhaps Holiday hasn’t regressed as a shooter but has leveled out to his career average. Last season was a significant outlier compared to the rest of his tenure in the league. Now, the correction has been massive, and right now, it is one of his worst shooting seasons from the corner. Still, I would expect him to end the year between the 37-40% mark, which is still good and closer to his career average — but it’s not the 60% flamethrower we saw last season.
Holiday is getting and taking good shots. The Celtics, as a unit, primarily take open or wide-open threes. Therefore, Holiday is still getting high-quality looks. Honestly, I’m not sure what’s caused the regression, but I would hope that things start to level out in the coming months, or at least after the All-Star break. Having him in the corner, nailing catch-and-shoot threes was a legitimate weapon last season, and one the Celtics are missing right now.
I’ve had fun working through all these questions! If you didn’t participate this time, I would be running these with some regularity over the course of the season, so hopefully, we can have some back-and-forth.
With that said, I’ll catch you all tomorrow as we continue waiting for gameday!
Enjoy the rest of your day, everyone.
Good feedback.
If the Celtics had come up empty last year, I think we'd all be in a different place with regard to analyzing each performance. But this team has demonstrated its flexibility and versatility, and earned the benefit of the doubt. They can win with defense. They can win with offense. They can win with any one of 5-6 players being their top scorer. They can with Tatum operating primarily as a scorer or as a facilitator.
Despite the fact that they're professional athletes earning millions of dollars, the players don't operate on unlimited energy. Not going to fault them for allowing the Pistons to shoot 55%...or whatever...because they didn't need to expend that sort of defensive energy to still win the game. We have to trust that they'll be able to "bring it" when the playoffs begin.
The #1 factor that's going to impact 2025 playoff success is health. Period. End of story. And we're still 4 months away from knowing what the roster will look like in April and beyond.