Celtics vs. Magic Playoff Primer
The NBA playoffs are here, and the Boston Celtics are set to battle the Orlando Magic in a Round 1 showdown.
The NBA playoffs are here, and the Boston Celtics are set to battle the Orlando Magic in a Round 1 showdown.
This is the same Magic team that’s 6-4 against Boston over the past two seasons.
The same Magic team that took two of three matchups this year.
But this is the playoffs — where the defending champs unleash Jayson Tatum, who sat out both of those losses and will undoubtedly be ready to dominate from opening tip.
Setting the stage
Coming into this series, there will be a lot of focus on the Magic's defense. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando leads the league in defensive 3-point frequency. That means they're limiting opposing teams from taking shots on the perimeter, with just 35% of their opponents' offense coming from deep.
Orlando also finished the season with the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. But that got me wondering, how much does that defensive rating change when they're facing a top-10 offense? The answer? It doesn't. Orlando remains the 2nd best defense when facing an elite offensive team in the NBA.
The only difference is that they allow roughly 3 points more per 100 possessions when guarding a top-10 offensive threat. The Magic are going to be one of the hardest tests Boston's offense has faced in a while. Figuring out how to break down Orlando's half-court defense may lead to some scrappy runs of play. However, this is exactly the sort of test you want early, as it will force Mazzulla's team to shift into a higher gear.
Another reason to remain confident is that Boston sits third in the NBA for offensive rating when facing a top-10 defense. They average 117.5 points per 100 possessions. Furthermore, they're shooting the rock at a 55.3 effective field goal percentage, ranking them sixth in the NBA.
We can also flip this on its head and look at how the Magic fare when facing an elite defense. I mean, the Celtics finished the season in the top five for defensive rating, and Orlando has one of the worst offenses in the NBA.
Orlando participated in 22 games against teams with a top-10 defense this season, struggling mightily. They were shackled across the board, ranking 28th in the NBA for points per 100 (105.2), 29th for eFG% (49.2), and 18th for turnover percentage (15.6%). To add further context, the Magic have a -6 NetRating when facing one of the league's better defensive teams.
It's here, when diving deeper into the weeds of each team's production, that the Celtics' analytical edge shines through. Yes, the Magic are an elite defensive team, but Boston has been cooking those all year. And yes, the Magic are a poor offensive roster, but things become even more bleak when faced with a defense as talented as Boston's.
Before we even get into the matchups, Xs and Os, or anything else, it's clear why the Celtics will be favorites heading into this series.
Talking of which...
The Top-3 Matchups
Let's start with the one everyone is excited about:
Jayson Tatum vs. Paolo Banchero
As you can see from the above graphic, Tatum has edged out Banchero in all but one statistical category this season. The Celtics superstar will be the best player in this series, as will likely be the case all the way through the playoffs (or at least until the Finals.)
There's also the added spice of the friendship between Banchero and Tatum, and how both are looking to put that to one side once they step between the lines.
Here's what Banchero said about the impending matchup.
“I’ve known Jayson since I was going into college,” Banchero said, via Masslive. “I see him every summer. A guy that I’m very familiar with. One of the guys I go to for advice and stuff like that. Obviously, now, we’re competing. The best way for me to show my respect is to give him my best effort and go at him as much as I can. I’m excited for the matchup and I’m just excited to be in the playoffs in general.”
And here's what Tatum had to say:
"He's trying to lead his team," Tatum said. "...It's just shifting your mindset to, 'it's the playoffs.' No friend out there. Nothing else matters except doing everything I can to help my team."
The matchup between these two Duke products projects to be a blockbuster. Banchero is the more physical, and Tatum is the more skillful and diverse. Furthermore, Tatum has significantly more postseason experience than his Magic counterpart. He knows how to win, he knows what it takes to be a star, and he's a threat to drop a 50-point triple-double on your head.
Jaylen Brown vs. Franz Wagner
I've been a big Franz Wagner guy for a minute. I really like his skill set and play style. I do think that his slight edge in most statistical categories this season comes from him having less of a supporting cast to carry some weight. Still, Wagner has performed well and could be a legitimate problem for Brown.
Of course, the biggest question with this matchup is what version of Brown the Celtics are going to get. He is currently dealing with a bone bruise and has looked a shadow of his usual self. The most notable areas where his injury is hindering him are in transition, when cutting to the rim, and when tasked with guarding in space or navigating screens.
“He looked great today,” Horford said on Tuesday. “I was very happy to see him out there doing everything. It’s a really good sign for us. To answer your question, it’s tough. I feel like there’s a lot of things that he kind of has to deal with when you’re in that position. Jaylen is very strong mentally. I feel like he finds a way. He’s the type where he’s out here, putting in the work and trying to get himself ready to go. He understands what’s in front of us. I know that, mentally, he’s going to be in a good place. I’m just excited to see him go from this point forward.”
Wagner is no easy mark. He will attack any weakness he finds in Brown's game – on either side of the floor. He's talented enough to counter what the Celtics throw at him, and is one of the more experienced tournament players on Orlando's roster, courtesy of his exploits in the FIBA World Cup.
When healthy, Brown would have his hands full with Wagner. With an injury, he's facing a tough series. Even if Mazzulla puts someone else on Wagner, the Magic will likely hunt Brown in those matchups, at least until he proves that he's still his usual lock-down self on defense.
Kristaps Porzingis vs. Wendell Carter Jr.
I think this could be a really fun battle. Porzingis has struggled when facing bigger, stronger big men throughout his career. Carter will struggle to deal with Boston's spacing on the perimeter, pulling him away from the basket and forcing him into some uncomfortable situations.
These matchups are never straightforward. The Celtics will hunt mismatches and the Magic will plug-and-play their best defenders depending on the situation at hand. Still, I think Porzingis dominates in terms of big man production. The three-level scoring, shot deterrence, and rim protection are all huge swing factors in Porzignis' favor.
Carter Jr. is good enough to cause some problems, but he's a level or two below Porzingis, and may even find himself being outplayed by Al Horford and Luke Kornet (I know, my Kornet propaganda has to stop...or does it?)
Series Predictions
I'm going to keep this nice and simple. I've got the Celtics winning in five. I think Orlando is good enough and aggressive enough to win a game, with that win most likely coming at the TD Garden, because that's been the Celtics' MO for the past few seasons.
Is there a chance that Orlando pushes this to six games? Sure. Seven? I mean, people win the lottery all the time. I really like what the Magic are building, the talent they have, and the direction they're heading in, but they're still two or three years away.
I also expect Tatum to lead the series in scoring and playmaking. I think he's going to relish the challenge of facing Banchero and will want to send a statement that he's still hungry for more championship success. Banchero is going to be an amazing player – and to be fair, he already is – which I think could force Tatum to raise his level, and if that happens, the Celtics will be borderline impossible to stop.
The final prediction I'm going to make is that Boston outplays the Magic on defense. Last season's championship run was predicated on a lock-down defenisve system. I've said it all year, and I'll say it one more time, for all of the threes, the screening actions and the drive-and-kick playmaking, Botson's true identity resides on the defensive side of the floor. They will have a point to prove against Orlando.
To channel my inner Shannon Sharpe, "Clam Chowder, Jae Crowder, April Shower...Celtics in FIVE."
Here are 3 Plays I Like From the Celtics/Magic Regular Season
When we talk about Brown being healthy and what he can bring to the rotation, this sequence from the final game between Boston and Orlando perfectly illustrates what I think we all mean.
I like the following play because it's built off a staple of the Celtics' early-action offense (quick fist). The Celtics find a way to quickly generate a lob pass out of what is usually just an entry action to force a switch or initiate a second-side possession.
Credit to Payton Pritchard for dragging his dribble, keeping the perimeter defense engaged, allowing for Kornet to roll to the rim unimpeded. Brown being in the corner put Caldwell-Pope in a bind; he couldn't tag because it would have left Brown wide open.
The movement on the following play was great and really fun to watch. Kornet is in the thick of things, executing a chin action with Payton Pritchard before veer screening for Sam Hauser. Pritchard ultimately isolates in the corner and gives Anthony Black that work.
Peel switching has been a big part of the Celtics' defensive approach since acquiring Holiday in the summer of 2023. I'm curious to see how they use peel switches to keep Banchero and Wagner on their toes.
And finally, if you haven't seen much of the Magic this season, I think the below defensive possession is indicative of what we can expect to see throughout the upcoming series.
Now it's your turn!
That's it for today! Now that the move to Ghost is fully complete (it took a while for some backend stuff), I want to start making use of the comments section, as that will be a great way to start building community!
If you've recently left a comment, I'll be getting back to you today, and I have set up email notifications so I never miss one.
Which brings us to today...Let me know your thoughts, predictions, fears/concerns, or areas of excitement for the upcoming playoff series. We've waited months for this, and now it's just a few days away!