The Celtics Should Pass on Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard is the type of ball-dominant guard the Celtics have struggled to integrate during the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era.

Damian Lillard is a free agent. He was shockingly and unceremoniously waived and stretched by the Milwaukee Bucks. What doesn’t sit right with me, is how the Bucks did that to him after he tore his Achilles Tendon while playing for the franchise.

Now, Lillard has a choice to make.

He can either control his own rehab or he can sign with a team and work with their medical staff as he continues his recovery.

The problem is, any team that signs him will be doing so knowing that he’s unlikely to play in the upcoming season. At the very best, he’ll be cleared down the final stretch.

According to Sam Amick, Eric Nehm and Joe Vardon of The Athletic, the Celtics are among a handful of teams that are already showing an interest in adding Lillard to their roster.

“League sources say Lillard received calls from several contending teams quickly after the news of his Bucks’ ending broke,” The trio reported. “League sources say the Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers are known to be among the many teams that would have interest in doing a deal sooner rather than later.”

For Boston, the problem is that by acquiring Lillard now, they would be committing two of their 15 roster spots to players with long-term injuries.

The same injury, to be exact.

Is eating a dead roster spot worthwhile, considering the return is Lillard?

I don’t think so.

Lillard is 34 years old. His two seasons with the Bucks amounted to nothing. And furthermore, his defense is porous enough to be a genuine hindrance during the playoffs.

Look, I get the appeal…Lillard is an elite guard. One of the best. However, his style of play leaves questions regarding how he’d slot into a rotation that already boasts Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Throughout his career, Lillard has been among the most heavily used players on the offensive end. Even when next to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lillard accounted for a 30.6% usage rate in 2023-24 and a 30.1% usage rate in 2024-25. Those numbers are still those of a star-level talent leading the way.

He also sat 2nd on the team for touches per game, averaging 78.9 in 2023-24. Then, in this past season, he averaged a team-high 85.9 touches per game.

When Tatum is healthy and on the court, those touches don’t exist. Lillard would either need to embrace a more off-ball role, or his ball-dominant style would cost someone else time with the ball in their hands.

Unlike the Bucks, Mazzulla runs a more equal opportunity offense. Still, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a hierarchy in terms of who dominates the rock.

As you can see, Tatum leads the way with 84.9 touches per game, which is less than the number of touches Lillard has this season. White ranks second in Boston, then Brown, Payton Pritchard and Jrue Holiday are bunched together.

Finding touches for Lillard would mean eating away at the depth chart. Pritchard won Sixth Man of the Year, in part, due to his improved off-the-dribble game. Yet, you need touches to score off the dribble. The Bucks ran a two-headed monster and fell at the first hurdle. Boston has more faith in its rotation.

It’s unlikely Lillard would walk into the Celtics rotation and oust Tatum as the lead ball-handler. Perhaps he could take over White’s spot and also take a few more touches away from Brown, Pritchard and whoever else. But is that really how the Celtics want to play?

My issue isn't that Lillard would dominate the ball; it's that, by nature, he's a scorer more than a playmaker. Touches indicate how often a player handles the ball and initiates offense. The more touches a player has, the more they're relied upon to get things started.

The higher a player's usage rate, the more frequently they're tasked with ending offensive possessions. When both touches and usage rate are high, that player is dominating the ball while leading the offense. They're handling the rock and looking for their own offense rather than creating for others.

As you can see from the above graph, Lillard was the most ball-dominant member of the Bucks roster last season. Not only did he lead in touches, but the rock stuck to his hands at every turn.

Boston has tried the ball-dominant scoring guard idea before. Both Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker were failed experiments.

Graph via CourtSketch

I don’t see how adding Lillard to the Celtics rotation makes sense for how Mazzulla likes his roster to play basketball. Sure, Lillard has shown an ability to work off-ball. You can see in the above graph that 10% of his offense came via hand-offs last season, with an additional 10.4% via catch-and-shoot opportunities. But in truth, he needs the ball to be at his best.

Asking him to make such drastic changes to his play style could backfire. Not because he’s unwilling or unable, but because at this stage of his career, he is who he is. Factor in the defensive concerns, and the partnership projects as a difficult one to sell yourself on.

Lillard is an elite guard. There’s no question about it. Unfortunately, he’s the type of guard Boston has tried to slot between Tatum and Brown in the past. Stevens was forced to coach those teams. He knows how difficult it was to get the best out of everyone involved.

It’s no coincidence that once he took over the President of Basketball Operations role, he moved to add two-way guards who can operate with or without the ball. And lo and behold, a championship soon followed.

I have no doubt that Lillard will land with a contender. I just hope it’s not the Celtics. We’ve seen this story before. We know how it plays out. I don’t want to see the latest reboot when the premise is likely to remain the same.