Celtics Have Three Reasons For Concern

If the Celtics want to win another championship, they need to fix some stuff.

Good morning! I hope you’ve all enjoyed the last few days, or at least most of it.

I spent Christmas and Boxing Day with family. There was lots of food, board games, and movies. This is not great for someone trying to cut weight after piling on the pounds over the last few years, but I’ll never pass up an opportunity to make memories with loved ones.

However, Christmas Day had a two-hour (ish) window during which things were far from perfect. I would assume yours did, too, regardless of whether or not you celebrate. Why? Well, if you’re subscribed to this newsletter, then I think it’s safe to assume that you were glued to a screen as the Boston Celtics faced the Philadelphia 76ers.

I was, too.

Unfortunately, rather than seeing the Celtics at their best, with a nationally televised game against a fierce rival coaxing an elite performance, we saw a disjointed, lackadaisical performance. The real Celtics showed up for the final 3 or 4 minutes of the game. Until that point, it was false dawn after false dawn.

Fortunately, we got a bounce-back on Friday, as the Celtics dismantled the Indiana Pacers relatively easily. However, it would appear that game was a false dawn, as that same Indiana roster sliced open Boston’s defense with regularity last night.

Joe Mazzulla’s team appears to be stuck in the mud. We get a string of good performances and then a couple of stinkers. December has been a rough one, though. The Celtics are 8 - 6 on the month.

I don’t know about you, but Boston flirting with a .500 record to close the year was not on my vision board. Despite my desire to remain calm and understand that rough patches are inevitable, a few issues are starting to bother me—or at least draw a reasonable (I hope) amount of concern.

Let’s look at my three biggest worries as we close out 2024.

#1. A Lack Of Wing Depth

Sam Hauser has missed seven games this season. All of them have been linked to lower back spasms. When he has played, his production has been inconsistent — which is understandable. Back issues are rough. They can limit your range of motion. They can make flying over screens incredibly difficult, especially when trying to square your body while shooting on the move. Also, changing direction or absorbing contact on defense becomes increasingly harder.

Yet, unlike last season, where Oshae Brissett or Svi Mykhailiuk were behind Hauser in the depth chart, the Celtics are awfully thin. Without Hauser at his best, Mazzulla is flitting between more double-big lineups and some Jordan Walsh Minutes.

As with anything, there are pros and cons to running double-big rotations. You get additional size — pro. You lose some of the fluidity in transition - con. And so forth.

Al Horford is at the four for most of Boston’s double-big possessions. Those possessions have been an overall positive for the team, with the Celtics outscoring opponents by +10.4 points per 100 across 688 possessions. Here are the most-used double-big rotations involving Horford.

Having the additional big man depth allows the Celtics to play with two bigs whenever necessary. However, Mazzulla’s team is at its best when running with one center, allowing them to be fluid in transition and in the half-court. Outside of Porzingis, any double-big lineup involving Horford lacks perimeter threat at the five, which can cause some issues with spacing and generating additional driving lanes.

What other choice does Mazzulla have, though? He doesn’t have a Brissett who can defend multiple positions, crash the offensive glass with physicality and power his way around the rim. Nor does he have a Svi, who can provide some microwave catch-and-shoot scoring to fill some of what you get with Hauser.

Instead, Mazzulla has Jordan Walsh, a second-year pro who is still developing his overall skill set and continues to look like a raw prospect. Look, credit where credit is due: Walsh has looked solid in his two outings against the Pacers and has also enjoyed some bright moments during the season. But is he really someone you can rely on throughout the season, or worse, in the playoffs?

Walsh is still a year or two away from potentially becoming a core rotation player. Now, don’t get me wrong, he’s shown some upside as an athletic slasher and as a catch-and-shoot threat. There have also been times when he’s looked good at attacking and creating off the bounce.

Yet, for a contending team, it’s hard to see him providing valuable minutes in a pinch. After all, the intensity is only going to increase as we get closer to the stretch run and into the postseason.

So, ask yourself, if Boston finds itself short-handed on the wing — due to injury, rest, or whatever — how comfortable are you having Walsh eating minutes off the bench in a playoff series?

Fortunately, the Celtics have an open roster spot and a tradable contract in Jaden Springer. Brissett is also still a free agent. Brad Stevens does have some options available.

#2. Injuries/Health

Okay, this builds on the last point. However, it’s a big enough concern to warrant its own segment.

Let’s start by putting everything in perspective.

• Kristaps Porzingis has missed 21 games (and counting) this season.

• Hauser has missed seven games (and counting).

• Jrue Holiday has missed six games and has shown regression on both sides of the floor.

• Al Horford is almost 40.

• Jaylen Brown is consistently dealing with knee tendinitis.

• I’m sure I’ve missed a few, too.

Now, let’s add some more context.

Last season, Mazzulla’s core starting five of White, Holiday, Brown, Tatum and Porzingis played 1,293 regular-season non-garbage-time possessions together. Boston had a total of 7,646 non-garbage-time possessions throughout the 2023-24 regular-season. Therefore, the math has the Celtics starting unit being on the floor for 17% of the team’s total possessions.

Almost one in five possessions had that five-man combo on the court—the same lineup that was the most dominant in the NBA.

This season, that five-man lineup has 187 possessions together out of a possible 2,948 — once again filtering out garbage time. That works out to just 6.3% of the time.

We’ve rarely seen this Celtics team at full strength, and we’re already 32 games into the basketball year.

How many times have we heard a former championship team rue missed opportunities in the regular season? You know, stuff like building winning habits, getting continuity with rotations and lineups, and building resilience in challenging moments.

Yes, Stevens may have opted for roster continuity this summer, but each season is its own entity. Those winning habits, culture and resilience all need to be built year-on-year. Derrick White had a great quote last night:

“You’re creating habits all year,” White said. “Obviously, you want to win every game and be first place, and do all those things…These habits will carry over, so we’ve gotta correct the quickly.”

Right now, the Celtics aren’t getting that opportunity, and it’s starting to show in their inconsistent performances.

"Every season has its own challenges,” Jaylen Brown said after last night’s loss to the Pacers. “Every season presents its own adversity. You gotta meet it. You can't think that last year is this year or this year is gonna be last year. You’ve gotta come out ready to play basketball — whatever happens, happens. I think we’re all set thinking like everything is supposed to go how it went last year. It’s not gonna be the case. It’s different. You gotta be able to meet that level and grow as a team.”

It’s difficult for the Celtics to build as a unit when they consistently play short-handed and try to put out rotational fires. Until they get a steady stretch of games, with the complete 8-man rotation in check, it will be hard to gauge where this team is and how they’ve improved as a unit.

Injuries have been an unspoken issue all season. Now that the Celtics are starting to lose games, they’re becoming more of a talking point—and rightly so.

#3. Defensive Inconsistencies

“I don’t want to say effort, I would say there are definitely low points,” Derrick White said on Sunday. “…Some possessions we’re flying around, then the next possession we give up a layup or whatever it might be.”

To begin the season, it was transition defense. Then, it was containing penetration off the drive. Then, it was defensive rebounding. And now, it’s a smorgasbord of issues that morph on each possession.

Against the Pacers on Sunday, the Celtics were cooked on off-ball movements and by poor decision-making when guarding the roll-man.

Defensive breakdowns like this one — especially when early in the game — cannot happen. They didn’t happen to last year’s team. What’s more frustrating is that for every collapse, we see some lock-down possessions like the one below.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I don’t care about the threes, I don’t care about the ball movement, or anything else…The Celtics’ identity is built on the defensive end. They’re a much scarier unit when they’re playing elite defense — far more than when they’re having a hot stretch on offense. Why? Because eventually, bad shooting nights or weeks will happen. Defense is the bedrock that success is built upon.

I mean, there’s a reason why the Celtics won a championship while holding teams to under 100 points in 11-of-19 postseason games.

For every brain fart that sees an off-ball cutter shake loose, missed rotation, or overall defensive collapse, there’s a possession where the Celtics lock in and shut down every possible angle. The defensive juggernaut from last season is still in there somewhere. They just need to tweak their approach and how they’re trying to control the game on that side of the floor.

"We've got to pay attention to the tendencies," Mazzulla said on Sunday. "And we have to know where we can help from and force more kickouts...It starts at the point of attack."

…..It starts at the point of attack….

So, what’s changed?

Well, for starters, Brown hasn’t been the consistent ‘I’m shutting down your best player’ threat this season. He’s had his nights like that, for sure, but it hasn’t been anywhere near the consistency of last season — where he was Boston’s leading point-of-attack defender.

Then, you can add in Holiday’s struggles, and his occasional absence. Suddenly, a lot is falling onto Derrick White’s shoulders, and when there’s only one POA defender operating at a high level, everything becomes far easier to manipulate.

Of course, there are more issues than just the point-of-attack, but to build on what Mazzulla said, the key to a good defense is setting the tone at the line of engagement. Then, the onus falls onto your off-ball defenders, helpers, and rim-protectors. It takes a village. And right now, most of that village is staying indoors, waiting for the storm to pass, rather than getting outside and chucking water with the rest of the population.

Defense has been a talking point for most of the season. It’s likely going to be a concern until we see consistent signs of growth. This isn’t about effort or hustle. It’s about execution and getting back to the identity that helped bring home a championship. Forget what defensive rating this team has (they’re eighth at the time of writing this) there are issues that need to be addressed — fortunately, it sounds like the team is taking the slide seriously, and that’s encouraging within itself.

So, those are my three concerns right now. Let me know in the comments what has you worried, or why you’re choosing to remain calm! As always, I appreciate all of you!