Sifting Through Boston Celtics Trade Rumors Before the February 8 Deadline
When you wake up tomorrow, it will be precisely three weeks until the February 8 trade deadline. This time last year, there was a quiet hope that the Boston Celtics would find a way to add some insurance behind Robert Williams. In came Mike Muscala.
Fast forward 12 months, the Celtics are top of the Eastern Conference, undefeated at home, and hold the best record in the NBA. Any moves Brad Stevens makes in the coming weeks will be supplementary. Boston has an open roster spot. They have a $6.2 million Traded Player Exception from the Grant Williams sign-and-trade in the summer. And they have a plethora of second-round picks to play around with.
There's scope to make a deal if the right one becomes available. It might be sacrilegious to do this, but Nick Nurse had a great quote about upgrading a contending roster earlier this month, which also applied to the Celtics.
“I think you’ve always got to be in the mindset to upgrade at all times,” Nurse added. “Whether I was coaching the Iowa Energy or coaching the Sixers, like there’s always places. Can you improve 10 through 12? Can you improve eight through 10? Can you improve three through five? I think you’re always trying to do that, or are you getting assets so you can do something else."
That's where the Celtics are right now. We know they don't need to upgrade one through six. We know that Sam Hauser is proving himself to be a valuable member of the rotation and is unlikely to be moved. We know that Payton Pritchard is emerging as a core part of the puzzle and has snapped out of his slow start to the season. Luke Kornet has been reliable in his minutes off the bench.
That gives us nine guys.
Nine guys most of us trust to be highly effective in the postseason.
Beyond that, though, there are 6 more spots on the roster. Osahe Brissett, Lamar Stevens, Svi Mykhailiuk, Delano Banton, and Jordan Walsh make up the other five guys under a full-time contract. Then, we have the open roster spot.
Let's get real for a moment.
Joe Mazzulla will run with a tight rotation when the playoffs eventually roll around. We're talking seven or eight guys. Maybe nine at a stretch. Beyond that, everybody else is insurance.
We can talk all day about how Brissett and Stevens struggle to score the ball. How Svi is a defensive turnstile, or how Banton hasn't looked like a difference maker in his limited minutes on the court.
The fact is, if Boston is forced to rely on any of their deeper bench guys, something went wrong. I mean, something went really wrong. The only time we will see those guys check into a game is if:
A: It's a blow-out, one way or the other.
B: Somebody is out of the rotation, most likely due to injury.
That's it. Those are the only logical reasons the Celtics would be relying on a 10th/11th/12th man to make an impact in the playoffs.
Nurse is right, though. You should still look for opportunities to upgrade. There's nothing wrong with a smaller move that consolidates the bench, even for a "break glass in case of emergency" scenario.
Over the past few weeks, there have been multiple names thrown around as potential targets for the Celtics ahead of the trade deadline. I thought it would be fun to take a look at each of them.
The rumored Boston Celtics targets
Let's start with a name that began surfacing on social media toward the end of last week.
Boston Celtics rumored target: Gordon Hayward.
“Gordon Hayward is absolutely for the taking, that on an expiring contract has more likelihood than ever to get moved…
A lot of teams are also looking at Hayward as a buyout possibility.”
(via @JakeLFischer) pic.twitter.com/ni8rBhOIV7— The Trade Deadline (@_TradeDeadline) January 13, 2024
In a podcast episode with Kevin Gray, who covers the Dallas Mavericks for 97.1 The Freak, Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports revealed that multiple teams around the NBA are waiting to see whether the Charlotte Hornets buy Hayward out of the final few months on his contract.
Of course, when that hit the newsfeed, some Celtics fans began to concoct notions of a potential return to Boston. After all, Hayward is loved by Stevens. He has unfinished business with the Celtics. He would be a major addition to the Celtics' bench rotation major addition to the Celtics bench rotation.
Well, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but that deal is not happening. How can I sound so sure? Because the new Collective Bargaining Agreement makes it impossible for the Celtics to pick him up on the buyout market.
The Celtics are a second-apron team. According to the new rules, any team at or above the second apron cannot sign a player on the buy-out market who was earning above the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. Hayward is earning $31.5 million this season.
No bueno.
It's not just Boston who can't sign Hayward. The LA Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, and Golden State Warriors also have the same restrictions. If I had to hedge a bet, I would guess he ends up in Miami.
Verdict: Not possible
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Boston Celtics rumored targets: Mike Muscala & Danilo Gallinari
Two former Celtics players. Both were sent to the Washington Wizards as part of the deal to acquire Kristaps Porzingis. Both were then sent to the Detroit Pistons as part of the deal that sent Marvin Bagley II and Isaiah Livers to the Wizards.
Welcome to D.C., @MB3FIVE. 🤝 pic.twitter.com/eBUS2QZqpu
— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) January 14, 2024
Within minutes of the trade being announced, chatter once again emerged on social media about the Celtics potentially re-acquiring one of their former floor spacers.
In terms of league rules, it's allowed. Keith Smith confirmed as much shortly after the trades took place.
Yes, Boston could now reacquire either Gallinari or Muscala. https://t.co/qUaKiGILmI
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) January 14, 2024
Just because the Celtics can bring back one of Gallinari or Muscala doesn't mean they should, though.
I get it. They're veterans. They can be relied on to provide a consistent-ish impact when called on. And neither would have significant gripes about a bench role for the remainder of the season. That's not my issue.
My issue is that how is Gallinari or Muscala a legitimate upgrade at this point in their respective careers?
What do they bring to the table that Brissett, Svi, and Stevens don't? They're both single-skill players at this point in their careers. Yes, Gallo is a sharpshooting forward with great size, but his years of playing any form of high-level defense are long gone.
Let's look at how each player is performing this season.
According to Dunks and Threes, which provides data on a player's estimated plus/minus, Gallinari is a career-low -1.6 in defensive EPM.
He's not fairing much better offensively, either.
The same can be said for Mike Muscala. Here's his defensive EPM
And here's his offensive EPM.
For anybody wondering, I tend to follow these guidelines for how a player ranks in EPM.
DEPM:
+2.5 = Elite defensive impact
+1.5 = Great defender
+0.5 = Above average
0.0 = Average
-0.5 = Below average
OPEM
+2.0 or higher = Excellent scoring impact
+1.0 to +1.9 = Great scoring help
0 to -0.9 = Below average scoring help
-1.0 to -1.9 = Poor offense
-2.0 or lower = Very bad for scoring
Note that EPM also takes a player's box score data into account, so assists, rebounds, etc, are all quantified.
Moving on from the numbers.
It's fair to assume that Gallinari and Muscala have been victims of their situation. The Wizards are a rebuilding team and have struggled on both sides of the court this season. Their numbers are unlikely to improve with the Pistons, too, after all, the team has hardly won all season.
Still, given the type of versatile defense the Celtics play, the fluidity in their offense, and how they like their players to be active when off-ball, it's hard to understand how either Muscala or Gallinari would upgrade the roster outside of being a recognized name.
Verdict: Pass
Boston Celtics rumored target: Nick Richards
Last week, Fischer joined me for a quick chat about the Celtics' potential moves ahead of the trade deadline. The conversation was live-streamed on X.
Trade Deadline Preview w/ Jake Fischer https://t.co/CFuP3Ztm0g
— Adam Taylor (@AdamTaylorNBA) January 11, 2024
During the conversation, Fischer noted how Hornets big man Nick Richards could be a potential target for the Celtics. Richards, 26, is in his fourth NBA season. He's started 18 games for Charlotte this season, but for the most part, is a back-up big man.
Richard's is a throw-back type of big man. He doesn't stretch the floor, and he doesn't have much of an off-the-dribble game. However, he's a solid screener and has a reliable scoring package around the rim and in the paint.
In the above clip, you can see Richards operating in a "veer" action on the wing. He sets an off-ball pin-down and then a veer screen as the Hornets go to a hand-off action from their 21 series. The veer part is where Richards sets an off-ball screen and then flows into some on-ball screens.
He then relocates into the paint, where he receives a post-entry pass from Cody Martin. A turnaround jump hook gets the Hornets two points on the board.
Nothing Richards does is flashy. However, he is a reliable rebounding presence that can also give you rim protection and some interior scoring off the bench.
Richards is, however, a slightly less impactful player than Kornet on both sides of the ball.
At which point, you wonder why the Celtics would give up assets to acquire him when Neemias Queta is also waiting in the wings. Again, there could be an argument that Richards would be vastly more impactful with the Celtics' spacing around him, and his presence in the dunker spot could improve the bench's vertical spacing.
Again, though, Queta can also offer that without giving up assets and with adding more size to the roster.
Verdict: Pass
Boston Celtics rumored target: John Konchar
This seems to be the most prevalent rumor out there. Boston has been linked with Konchar since November 2023. The Memphis Grizzlies wing is the type of low-risk addition the Celtics will likely focus on heading into the trade deadline.
The initial report came via Michael Scotto of HoopsHype.
"Reserve forward John Konchar is also a candidate to be dealt before the February trade deadline," Scotto reported. "The Celtics, Warriors, and Lakers are among the teams who’ve kept tabs on Konchar’s situation from afar, HoopsHype has learned."
Honestly, I haven't seen enough of Konchar this season to provide any legitimate analysis. Think of that what you will, but I would prefer to be honest than try to wing it and get stuff wrong. He plays in the Western Conference; I cover a team in the East, and navigating a time difference hamstrings me. The Grizzlies have not been high on my watch list this year.
Boston Celtics news and notes
Derrick White's dad, Richard White, joined the Green With Envy podcast earlier this week. I was gutted I couldn't be there. Still, my cohosts, Will Weir and Greg Maneikis, held it down and conducted a great interview. You can watch that below.
We also have a discord channel – if you want to join, the link is here:
Join the Green With Envy Discord Server!
Injury report: The Celtics face the San Antonio Spurs later today. As always, the team released a tentative injury report last night.
#NEBHInjuryReport for tomorrow vs. San Antonio:
Jrue Holiday (right elbow sprain) - QUESTIONABLE
Kristaps Porzingis (right knee inflammation) - QUESTIONABLE
Derrick White (left ankle sprain) - QUESTIONABLE— Boston Celtics (@celtics) January 16, 2024
The hope is that all three of Holiday, White, and Porzingis are cleared to play. However, it's understandable if the Celtics decide to sit one or more of the trio. This game is the halfway point of the season. They have the best record in the league and are facing a rebuilding roster. Focusing on long-term health and availability is the most important thing
HOWEVER! The Celtics have the chance to extend their unbeaten home run. Tonight's game officially marks the halfway point in the season. I, like most of you, will want them to take care of business and continue ensuring the TD Garden is a fortress.
According to the Spurs' official injury report on NBA.com, they will be missing Charles Bassey, Sidy Cissoko, and Zach Collins.
That means Victor Wembanyama should be making his first trip to Boston. He will be experiencing the Celtics crowd for the first time.
If you're attending the game, send me some photos for the next newsletter...I would love to find ways to incorporate the readers into each edition's segments.
My favorite Celtics meme this week (so far)
Jaylen Brown shoulda done it… pic.twitter.com/6rAAsdHtFx
— simba entei james (@EnteiSimba) January 15, 2024
If you read Monday's edition of this newsletter, you will know the battle with anxiety I've been dealing with. Well, almost directly after posting that edition, the battle started again.
"No one is going to subscribe"
"You're not good enough"
"You're wasting your time."
As I said in that edition, I'm not letting that story be my story. But now, I'm facing another internal battle I've been going back and forth on for over a year.
Twitter or Meta?
For as long as I've been covering basketball, Twitter has been the hub. It's where the news is, where the analysts are. And where you can grow a following. Then, last year, I gave IG a shot. I quickly jumped to 11K followers in under 10 months. Now, I'm torn about which one to hyperfocus on – with the growth of this newsletter front and center.
If you have any thoughts on this, I'm all ears.
Also, as I wrote on Monday, I have no idea how this newsletter is going to look or evolve. It wants it to be organic. I want it to happen naturally. Today, it's was a high-level view of some trade chatter. Next time, it could be a deep dive into some offensive or defensive actions the Celtics are running.
Let me know what resonates with you. That way, we can steer this ship together.
And as always, if you enjoyed this edition, please share with family, friends, co-workers, and online. Word of mouth is the most powerful advertising.
From Grief to Growth: A Personal Basketball Content Journey
Until next time...
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