Bostons' Bounce Back: Breaking Down the Tactical Battle vs Phoenix's Starpower

This is the first meeting between the Celtics and Suns this season. There's a lot to learn.

I enjoyed deep diving into the Denver Nuggets’ offense and defense on Thursday. I won’t always send out game previews, but for the big matchups, it makes sense and is a lot of fun.

Two losses. That’s the longest losing streak of the season. It’s happened twice now. First, in November, losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Philadelphia 76ers. And then, it happened over the last two games with losses against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets.

For us, that’s as bad as it’s gotten this season—two pesky losses. Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons dropped 27 straight games, making history for how much they stank. We’ve been fortunate to have such a talented roster to root for.

However, tonight, we could be entering unchartered territory. There's a chance we could see Boston...gasp...gulp...clutches pearls...suffer the unimaginable horror of...dun dun dun...losing three straight games. Could you imagine the online reaction? Three. Straight. Games! Mail it in. The season’s over.

The Phoenix Suns are no joke. Their star trio of Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell, and Bradley Beal can give you buckets in bunches. The Celtics will need to tighten up their defense to keep their losing streak at two and get back into the win column. After all, this is another national TV game. This is where you’re supposed to build your brand, proving to everyone that the NBA Finals are already a forgone conclusion.

Ok, enough of the hyperbole.

Shutting down the Suns' potent offense has to be the primary objective heading into tonight’s game. Forget the hand-wringing about the Celtics’ late-game execution. The best way to avoid those clutch stretches is to shut down your opponent's offense and chip away at building a lead.

Let’s start with the numbers before moving on to potential coverages and looking at doing some film work.

Phoenix: By the numbers

The Phoenix Suns rank 12th for offensive rating, averaging 117.1 points per 100 possessions. They’re 12th for defensive rating, too, holding opponents to 114.1 points per 100. That gives them a net rating of +3, tied with the Sixers for 10th in the league.

Phoenix had a tough stretch to begin the season. Booker and Beal had injury issues, leaving Durant to carry the load. So, keeping pace with a near top-10 offense is impressive and expected. Yet, it’s the defensive numbers that have caught my eye. Frank Vogel is a defense-first coach. He’s found a way to get his offensive-minded stars performing on both sides of the floor.

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is where the Suns offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Suns are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.

• Around the rim - 30.9%, 25th in the league

• Mid-Range - 35%, 2nd in the league

  • Short mid-range - 22.2%, 16th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 12.8%, 1st in the league

• 3-Point range - 34%, 21st in the league

  • Non-corner 3’s - 25.1%, 20th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 9%, 20th in the league

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court - the higher the league ranking, the better the Suns are at scoring in those areas.

• Around the rim - 67.2%, 11th in the league

• Mid-Range - 47.2%, 2nd in the league

  • Short mid-range - 47.3%, 6th in the league

  • Long mid-range, 47%, 3rd in the league

• 3-Point range - 38.5%, 6th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 37.7%, 8th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 40.5%, 10th in the league

Putting that into context

The Suns have a balanced shot diet. They slightly favor the mid-range game, likely due to their ability to attack close-outs on the perimeter and the space left by a dropping big man. In terms of accuracy, the Suns are a top-10 offense from almost every spot on the floor. Defenses have to pick their poison and decide what they want to try and take away vs. what shots they’re willing to live with.

For Boston, they may be smart to follow Denver’s defensive game plan in this game and try to funnel the Suns toward the rim, which appears to be their least favored area on offense. The Celtics rank 3rd in defensive rim attempt frequency and accuracy, so finding ways to guide Phoenix’s offense into the restricted area while limiting mid-range counters could be a fun game within the game.

Ok, now let’s look at how the Suns operate on defense.

Defensive shot location frequency

This is where opposing teams look to generate their offense against the Suns’ defense - the lower the league ranking, the more frequently teams are attacking those spots.

• Around the rim - 33.6%, 17th in the league

• Mid-range - 29.8%, 11th in the league

  • Short mid-rage - 21.1%, 11th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 8.7%, 18th in the league

• 3-Point range - 36.6%, 15th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 26.9%, 17th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 9.7%, 19th in the league

Defensive shot location success rate

This is where opposing teams find success on offense - the lower the league ranking, the more successful teams are from those spots.

• Around the rim - 65.1%, 10th in the league

• Mid-Range - 41.2%, 4th in the league

  • Short mid-range - 41.7%, 6th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 40%, 4th in the league

• 3-Point range - 36.6%, 10th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 36.9%, 19th in the league

  • Corner 3’s - 35.9%, 2nd in the league

Putting that into context

Opposing teams have to run a varied offense to find consistent success against the Suns’ defense. It would appear that attacking the rim has been a core strategy as teams look to expose Jusuf Nurkic’s lack of lateral quickness and hip flexibility. Phoenix does a reasonable job of defending threes, but they don’t look to discourage teams from taking them. They sit dead in the middle for three-point frequency. They also struggle with perimeter-based jumpers that aren’t situated in the corners.

Expect Boston to run some stagger actions, slot DHO’s and possible some floppy actions to get movement shooters such as Sam Hauser going against limited defensive impact.

Overall, the Sun's defense lends itself to Boston's usual offense — high-quality threes and rim pressure via cuts and bully drives. As such, the Celtics won’t need to make too many adjustments to their offensive game plan. However, it will be interesting to see how well they fare when playing out of the post, as the Suns are among the best mid-range defensive teams in the league. Perhaps the Celtics use the post more for secondary creation than we do for generating offense.

Setting the Stage for the Celtics