Can Lonnie Walker IV Fit into the Boston Celtics' System? A Deep Dive

Lonnie Walker IV signed an Exhibit 10 deal with the Boston Celtics on Wednesday

In typical fashion, I was asleep when the news broke. It was around 2 a.m. Henry, my 18-month-old English Bulldog, woke me around 7 so he could go to the bathroom. As I opened the door to the backyard and turned on the kettle to brew my morning coffee, I scrolled my Twitter feed, checked my Slack messages, and logged into Substack’s chat notifications.

Lonnie Walker IV. That’s pretty much all I saw, no matter where I logged in. It took a moment for everything to click…sometimes my brain has cobwebs first thing in the morning. Sure enough, it dawned on me: Boston had signed Walker to an Exhibit 10 contract.

And that’s where we’re going to start.

What is an Exhibit 10 contract?

“An Exhibit 10 contract is a one-year, minimum salary agreement that isn't guaranteed. It can also include an optional bonus of up to $75,000 that will be rewarded if a player, after he's waived, spends at least 60 days with a team's G League affiliate.”

This excerpt is from a recent article in The Oklahoman by Justin Martinez. Every year, teams around the league use an Exhibit 10 contract to take a closer look at players during training camp. If the player doesn’t stick, the team can funnel them toward their G-League affiliate, allowing them to continue developing the player with an option of signing them further down the line.

Using Exhibit 10 is a no-risk strategy. It adds nothing to your cap sheet. You can waive the player at any point. You can evaluate some of a player's intangibles—how they interact with the rest of the team, what they perform like in practice, and whether they mesh well…lots of answers without committing money.

Most of the time, teams will waive their Exhibit 10 player before the season begins. However, if the franchise chooses to keep that player heading into the season, their contract will become fully guaranteed on opening night.

“If a player on an Exhibit 10 contract is kept on the 15-man roster past the start of the regular season, his contract becomes a standard minimum deal. This is the only time it'll have an impact on the team's salary cap, since Exhibit 10 and two-way contracts don't count.”

It’s also worth noting that Exhibit 10 deals can be converted into a two-way contract.

What does that mean for Walker?

He’s going to be with the Celtics during training camp. While there, he will be able to compete for the 15th and final roster spot. If he’s successful, his contract will become fully guaranteed on October 22, when the Celtics open their season against the New York Knicks.

If Boston opts to waive Walker, they will likely try to funnel him into the G-League. As he’s ineligible for a two-way contract, Walker would be free to discuss terms with other NBA teams at any point. However, Boston would have the opportunity to keep developing him within their system while paying him a bonus for being in Maine.

Should Walker not make the 15-man roster, Boston could circle back around to him closer to the trade deadline, as his cap hit would’ve decreased, and he would be far more familiar with the system.

Thoughts on Walker’s fit with the Celtics

Here’s how Walker’s career minutes have been distributed.

Before anyone points this out, I’m aware this totals 99% — These numbers were taken from Basketball Reference, so it’s not my math.

Primarily, Walker will play either the 2 or the 3 for Boston. That means he’ll likely be fighting with Payton Pritchard, Baylor Scheierman, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Derrick White and maybe Jayden Springer.

Walker doesn’t perfectly fill the void left by Oshae Brissett or Svi Mykhailiuk, but he is positionally versatile and can slide around in the rotation. Nevertheless, there are some clear question marks surrounding Walker’s defensive skillset.

The 25-year-old has struggled on the defensive end throughout his career, which can sometimes negate his offensive impact. As you can see from the graph below, Walker is at best a net neutral on defense, and that has only occurred once.

As such, there will be a heavy focus on what he brings to the table on the offensive side of the floor.

Last season, Walker averaged 9.7 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 58 games off the Brooklyn Nets bench. He shot 38.4% from deep on 4.7 attempts per game. According to Cleaning The Glass, the lion’s share of his perimeter shots came around the perimeter rather than in the corners.

According to Cleaning The Glass, 40% of Walker’s entire shot profile came via non-corner threes last season — meaning the shots came from the wing, the slot or above the break.

Of the 371 jump shots Walker took last season, 192 of them came off the catch - meaning a player had found him and created a potential assist. He converted 39.6% of those shots, with 191 of them coming on the perimeter — similar to the video shown above.

Walker also took 179 jumpers off the dribble, hitting 36.9%. 81 of those shots came from two-point range, and 90 came on the perimeter.

Herein lies the central question…Will Walker have enough scope to create for himself off the dribble? Or will he be consigned to a spot-up role on the perimeter?

For me, the answer is simple: Walker will be a spot-up and movement threat off the catch. Unless he’s attacking close-outs with a one or two-dribble pull-up, there’s very little reason to put the ball in his hands and ask him to create. The Celtics have enough on-ball creators in their roster. Furthermore, Scheierman will need some reps handling the rock off the bench and has a more complete game than Walker.

That type of limited role would accentuate Walker’s strengths while allowing the Celtics to gameplan on how to limit his weaknesses. However, some sections of the fan base may expect him to be more than a spot-up shooter.

I highly doubt that Walker gets the on-ball reps he was afforded in Brooklyn — neither in transition nor in the half-court. I’ve spent the past hour or two re-watching every one of Walker’s layup attempts from last season. A significant portion came via screen or DHO, with him having the freedom to attack the rim off the bounce.

Walker won’t have that level of freedom in Boston. Put bluntly, there are better options on the roster. Instead, he must find ways to pressure the rim as an off-ball cutter, knowing the rock might not find him anyway.

Fortunately for Walker, he’s shown that he can attack on the rip-through or via stampede cuts. Take a look at the below clip. Walker positions himself to offer a release valve. Once he receives the ball, he stampedes toward the rim on a 45 drive, using his angle to create a scoring opportunity at the rim.

If the defense slides over, Walker is a capable enough scorer to counter with a pull-up in the mid-range. However, depending on how much time is left on the clock, his remit will likely be to swing the ball back out and reset the action.

Overall, Walker could thrive in a refined role off the Celtics bench. However, his impact will be one-sided due to his defensive limitations. Joe Mazzulla may not lean into his three-level scoring, instead preferring him to focus on driving and kicking or knocking down spot-up threes.

The fit is clear. His potential role makes sense. Whether Boston will use their final roster spot to tie him down for the upcoming season is a little murkier, though.

The argument for signing Walker to a Vet Min

There was no rhyme or reason for why Walker was still sitting on the free agent market. He’s proven himself to be a viable bench scorer at the NBA level and has shown he can get buckets across all three levels. That type of production, especially deep in the rotation, is highly valuable.

The more momentum shifters the Celtics can have on their bench, the more options Mazzulla has throughout the season. Walker’s versatility in playing either the 2 or the 3 would give the coaching staff some wiggle room when exploring potential substitution patterns or combinations.

Walker is 25 years old. Multi-level scorers with room to continue growing their game are rarely available this late in the summer — especially ones with 322 regular-season NBA games under their belt.

Brad Stevens saw an opportunity to take a closer look at a player who could improve the roster and took it. There won’t be many better options to round out the roster in the coming months. If Walker doesn’t stink up the joint or cause drama during training camp, there are plenty of compelling reasons to let his Exhibit 10 deal convert in October.

The argument against signing Walker to a Vet Min

The Celtics are stacked in his position. I get it; Walker would be the 15th man. He would be joining the team at the back end of the rotation. Any notion of him immediately leapfrogging Payton Pritchard in the rotation is short-sighted, especially considering Pritchard excels at everything Walker does, only to a higher level.

What made Brissett so valuable last season was his energy and ability to generate hustle plays out of nowhere. He was also a reliable defender who added physicality and urgency to the rotation. While Walker’s scoring would be a valuable counterpunch, losing the galvanization that Brissett added would be a tough adjustment.

Despite Walker’s clear offensive talent, there may be a better option to help replicate what Brissett brought to the table. The Celtics have enough offense already.

Some more thoughts on Walker’s addition

Earlier today, I released a quick 15-minute podcast on Walker’s addition to the Celtics. I shared some thoughts and concerns and explored his fit.

You can watch the episode via either of the links below.

You may notice that the podcast looks different…I hate change. Since leaving the Green With Envy podcast late last season, I’ve been toying with different options to figure out where I sit in the podcast space…It’s the first time I’ve been a podcast free agent in years.

What I’ve come to realize is that my workload is different now. My focus on building my own coverage has taken precedence. And due to all of this, consistently scheduling across timezones has become problematic — sure it works for guest spots and stuff — but multiple times per week is tough.

So, I’ve gone ahead and launched a solo podcast. The YouTube channel remains the same; it's just a rebrand. While the audio feed is new — unsubscribe from the others, this one is here to stay.

Sorry for all the chopping and changing, but after a summer where I’ve made a few career changes, I wanted to test the waters before making a final decision — which has now been made.

Share your thoughts!

Ok, so I’ve shared my thoughts on Walker’s potential fit with the Celtics and why the move makes sense in terms of being low-risk, high-reward. Now, I’m curious to hear how you all feel about hit! Let me know in the comment section, and I’ll make sure to get back at everyone!