Celtics Roster Battle: Tillman's Chances
Can Xavier Tillman secure the primary back-up center role?
Good morning. I’ve been enjoying the offseason, but now that I’m feeling nice and rested, it’s time to get back into the swing of things with the newsletter. I’ll be upping the consistency back to *near* in-season volume. That means there might be some whacky days. We might have some film studies. And there is certainly scope for as many mailbags as you all want to work through.
Also, for paid subscribers…I will be ramping up the paid content, too. We will be moving to a 50/50 split, and as the season draws closer, we will slowly increase until we’re at normal levels.
For the rest of this week, I will examine ways Xavier Tillman, Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh, Jaden Springer and Baylor Scheierman could earn a legitimate (and consistent) role in the rotation to begin the season.
But first…
🫖 Taylor’s Tea Time
The Tea: Jay Scrubb has signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Boston Celtics and will compete for a roster spot during training camp. He discussed his journey back from a torn ACL during a recent exclusive interview with CLNS Media’s Bobby Manning.
Taylor: After earning a two-way contract courtesy of a strong Summer League, Scrubb’s opportunity was snatched away from him due to an injury sustained during practice. He was subsequently waived by the franchise. Before his injury, Scrubb told me that he was hoping to follow a similar trajectory to Sam Hauser, who has become a core part of the rotation after initially joining the franchise on a two-way contract.
“It’s literally that mentality just coming in and the same way Sam did,” Scrubb said. “Being what the team needs coming in and being that knockdown shooter, being that guy that could come in and guard and come in and be that glue piece. It’s sort of that same mindset just coming in and being that added piece that added boost for the team. That’s the main thing.”
Unfortunately, when I had to rebuild my podcast offering, I lost the video to this interview—and every interview I had ever done, including Gordon Hayward, Grant Williams and countless others—but you can read a write-up on his comment here.
Nevertheless, Scrubb now has a chance to get his career back on track. Earning the final roster spot in Boston’s rotation won’t be easy. Brad Stevens could choose to keep it open, both for tax-saving purposes and for the roster flexibility it provides, and in truth, that’s what I’m expecting to happen. Still, Scrubb is the type of microwave three-level scorer who could entice the Celtics to change their plans if he impresses during training camp, of course.
“They already have guys like [Jayson] Tatum, [Malcolm] Brogdon, [Jaylen] Brown - you know, ball-dominant guys,” Scrubb told me last summer. “So just coming in and being that guy, knocking down open shots whenever they need me to. If they do need me to put the ball on the floor, make sure it’s efficient. Two, three, dribbles, get to the rim. Not doing nothing crazy out there and just letting the game come to me, man. And that’s what’s so special about this team: I have an opportunity to where I can just come in and be that glue guy, and I’m excited for that, man. I’m excited.”
Scrubb faces an uphill battle to prove he’s the missing piece to Boston’s rotation, especially as he’s not viewed as a high-level defender. Still, as a former JUCO player who clawed his way into the NBA and has stuck on the periphery despite being the 55th pick in 2020, it would be foolish to write him off just yet.
The Tea: The Warriors are showing “a strong interest” in Killian Tillie, who performed well for the Celtics in Las Vegas after bouncing back from a 2 1/2-year hiatus from the NBA due to a back injury.
“Tillie returned to Spokane, rehabbed, recovered and ramped up for training camp workouts in the late spring/early summer with hopes he’d latch on with another NBA team,” Theo Lawson of The Spokesman reported. “The 6-foot-9 forward had a number of feelers, with strong interest coming from the Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers in particular.”
It’s worth noting that it isn’t clear whether the interest in Tillie was before Summer League or due to his play for the Celtics.
Taylor: Golden State has lacked genuine size for multiple seasons. Last year, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Kevon Looney were the tallest players on the roster — they’re both 6’10’’.
“Just bringing in somebody who’s tall -- you’ve got to have skill, you’ve got to have feel, you’ve got to know how to play. I think we’ve learned that over the last few years,” Mike Dunleavy Jr. told reporters in 2023. “We’ll always prioritize that, but the taller and longer a player is, the better.”
Tillie wouldn’t solve that issue for them. He’s 6’9’’. However, he does have a skill set that would fit in Steve Kerr’s rotation. Furthermore, the addition of Quinten Post (who is a genuine 7 footer) in the draft should reduce the urgency to add more rotational size — especially while they’re still pursuing Lauri Markkanen.
As the games wore on in Vegas, Tillie showcased his defensive ability for the Celtics and found his shooting stroke.
Similarly to Scrubb, he faces an uphill battle to earn a roster spot but has the sort of offensive game that could appeal to multiple teams around the NBA.
Tillie averaged 8.4 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 48.5% from the floor and 41.2% from beyond the three-point line during his five Summer League games for Boston. He also secured a block per game.
The Tea: In his most recent “Brissy TV” vlog, released Aug. 2, Oshae Brissett discussed a potential return to the Celtics.
“I love basketball. I want to play. I’m still a free agent now, talking to some teams,” Brissett said. “…I loved every single part about being a Boston Celtic, and you know I could go back. Who freaking knows? The door is not closed fully… There is still a spot on the team. Who knows, right? But last season, I loved every single second of that. That was because of you guys. You guys made that possible. You guys made me feel like I won Finals MVP, you feel me?”
Brissett remains an unrestricted free agent. The Celtics still have an open roster spot (which Scrubb is also fighting for.)
Taylor: I won’t lie. I wasn’t very high on Brissett to begin last season. His limited offensive game had me questioning how he would fit into a supercharged Celtics roster and where he could provide value.
It didn’t take long for him to win me over.
He plays high-intensity defense, brings physicality, and is the type of character that can help galvanize a roster when checking into a game. We saw multiple instances of him being an energizer last season. He also earned minutes in 10 of Boston’s 19 playoff games en route to their championship.
I would expect that Stevens would be willing to bring Brissett back if he’s willing to comprise a similar role to last season. Although, I would assume his testing free agency was to try and find some more consistent playing time elsewhere in the NBA now that he has a ring this name.
Still, Brissett filling the final roster spot would complete the championship continuity Stevens’ has prioritized this summer.
🔍 Is Tillman first in line to back up Al Horford?
When Tillman was acquired by the Celtics at the Feb. 8 trade deadline, he was nursing a knee injury that limited him from fully integrating into the rotation during the opening months of his tenure with the franchise.
“I had some swelling going on in there and it was just really painful to bend it,” Tillman told reporters ahead of the All-Star break last season. “So, once I got the swelling out I was good to go.”
Tillman found himself at the back end of a deep and talented big-man rotation. He had Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet ahead of him in the rotation, with Neemias Queta breathing down his neck for the 4th spot in the center rotation.
At first, it was hard to see what Tillman could bring to the rotation. He wasn’t up to speed with Boston’s offense and where he should be during certain halfcourt sets, and his defensive versatility was failing to shine through. However, as he got more accustomed to the system, he began to show signs of being an important role player for the franchise.
For me, one of the most impressive aspects of his offensive approach was his ability to create out of the post.
We’ve previously looked at how Kornet has thrived when operating on the perimeter despite not being a three-point threat. Tillman’s ability to set bone-crunching screens, slip screens, work out of the high or low post and operate in the short roll are all aspects of his offensive game that could earn him consistent minutes.
If you look at the above plays, you will see the poise and patience he approached the possessions with. He didn’t get sped up. He didn’t get pushed off his spots. Instead, he surveyed the floor, found the best option available and made the right and simplest read.
Tillman is also working on adding a three-point shot to his game, although that’s still a work in progress. He went 8-of-28 during his 20 regular season games for the Celtics and was 1-of-1 during the playoffs. Expecting him to be a legitimate perimeter threat next season is unfair, although expecting him to have made strides with his shot is fair.
In truth, Boston needs Tillman to recreate his game-three performance against the Dallas Mavericks. That’s where he shone on both ends of the floor. It’s where he proved he could be an understudy (and potential replacement) for Horford and where Stevens was justified in adding him to the roster midway through the season.
Ok, this clip is from game 4 of the NBA Finals, but the defense is still on point and indicative of what Tillman can provide.
How Tillman can secure a spot behind Horford
Entering the new season, Tillman, Kornet and Queta will be battling it out for the primary bench big role. Porzingis is expected to miss the opening months of the season as he continues to recover from surgery. As such, there are minutes up for grabs.
The most logical expectation is that Mazzulla chops and changes the rotation based on matchups. Still, it’s up to Tillman (and everyone else) to prove they can answer the call, regardless of who they’re matched up against.
Tillman’s biggest advantage over Kornet and Queta is his switchability on the defensive end. He can guard multiple positions when on the perimeter, allowing Boston to produce a stifling switch defense, limiting space and suffocating pick-and-roll creation. He’s also strong enough to handle hulking bigs when tagging the roll man or guarding the post.
According to Synergy, Tillman ranked as a “good” PnR defender, “Average” isolation defender and “excellent” spot-up defender—although all of those categories have small sample sizes due to his limited role in the rotation.
For all the talk of Boston’s elite offense, defense is still their calling card. Shutting down opponents is their identity. That’s why they held opponents to under 100 points in 11 of their 19 postseason games. The Celtics love to play stern defense. They snatch your soul.
According to Cleaning The Glass, the Celtics were +8.5 points better in the 489 possessions Tillman was on the floor last season. Boston was especially good at forcing turnovers, likely due to the increased intensity when guarding the perimeter.
In contrast, the Celtics were +12.7 points better with Kornet per 100 over 1807 possessions.
And they were +21.4 points better with Queta over 537 possessions.
Clearly, Tillman is starting off behind the 8-ball The numbers say he is the least impactful big in the rotation. Part of that is likely due to his bedding-in period with the team and his limited opportunities to build a rhythm. Part is likely due to his lack of size.
That lack of size also limits Tillman’s effectiveness on the offensive glass. He averages 1.5 offensive rebounds per game. Nevertheless, as part of a five-out system, his role is unlikely to crass the boards — not when you have guys like Payton Pritchard and Derrick White who both thrive on hustle boards. Wild how two of the better offensive rebounders are guards, huh?
Still, Tillman can fit into Boston’s system and mindset. He can be the big who gets switched onto a larger guard or wing and forces tough shots with minimal space. He can be the guy who sets monster screens before short-rolling to offer secondary creation. He can be the guy who battles on the boards due to his strength and low center of gravity.
What he doesn’t provide is rim protection. That’s where Porzingis’ defensive impact was so important last season, and it's why both Kornet and Tillman — both 7-footers — have a slight advantage. As such, Tillman must prove capable of controlling angles and forcing offensive players into difficult positions on the court. Horford has excelled in that type of defense throughout his career, and Tillman must learn from him if he wants to overtake Kornet in the rotation.
The same goes for offense. Tillman must show he can be a DHO hub on the perimeter. If the Celtics can trust him to operate as a facilitator and mobile screener, his chances of consistent minutes will increase. Tillman has already proven capable of setting solid pin-downs, flare screens and on-ball screens. But, he must also prove he can pick out the best option when handing the ball off, and position himself to be an off-ball threat immediately after the DHO has taken place.
As such, we should expect to see Tillman initiating some offense as a perimeter hub when given playing time during pre-season. Right now, his role projects to be behind Kornet and potentially ahead of Queta. He must earn his playing time and prove that he is more diverse and valuable than Kornet.
Otherwise, he’s in for another season as a situational rotation player. Fortunately, he signed a multi-year deal with the Celtics this season. As such, he may need another year to study Horford’s approach and how Boston expects him to play. There’s plenty of time for Tillman to prove he’s capable of becoming Horford’s successor.
For now, though, it’s hard to see him dislodging Kornet to begin the season. Stranger things have happened, though.
👁️👂🍬 Eye ‘N’ Ear Candy
With there being very little actual news to dissect, and no Celtics games to break down, we got a little creative with the latest podcast episode.
Tim Sheils and I dove into the butterfly effect of Gordon Hayward’s injury and how it impacted the Celtics timeline on multiple levels. We looked at how it helped develop Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, why Marcus Smart was an unlikely beneficiary, and how it put the franchise on the path to a dynasty.
Check it out. Leave some comments. And subscribe to help the coverage continue to grow!
🏀 Rival Rundown
Golden State
The Lauri Markkanen saga could take a new twist today. If he signs a contract extension with the Utah Jazz before midnight, he will be available for trade on the upcoming Feb. 6 trade deadline. If he waits until tomorrow, he will be ineligible to be traded all season. And if he doesn’t sign at all, expect the rumor mill to heat up.
Why is this important? Because Markkanen could complete the Golden State Warriors re-tooling. He would give Steph Curry an All-Star level second option, while also solving the franchise’s need for size.
According to
, the Jazz sent “multiple coaching staff representatives to Finland to assist Markkanen in workouts with rising Jazz guard Keyonte George.” Stein also shared his own thoughts on what Utah’s decision meant for Markkanen’s availability, an opinion I also agree with. “More than one rival team consulted said it agreed with my personal read that it just got harder to see Utah abruptly turning around and trading him immediately in the wake of helping to facilitate training sessions in faraway Markkanen's home country.”
I’m unsure how long the Warriors will hold out on landing Markkanen. If the deal doesn’t look likely, they may need to turn their attention elsewhere. However, that could mean remaining patient and waiting for an in-season trade to appear or making another move closer to the trade deadline.
New York Knicks
Julis Randle is eligible for a contract extension. He has been named to three All-Star teams since joining the Knicks. He was also the first high-level player to join Tom Thibodeau’s rebuild and has been present for the transformation in the Big Apple. However, New York’s cap situation makes signing him to a max contract a complicated endeavor.
"Unless Randle, 29, is willing to take a substantial discount, it is difficult to find an agreement that makes sense for both sides," Fred Katz of The Athletic wrote. "...The Knicks can’t throw away the gift Brunson gave them. They cannot go above the second apron this upcoming season...It means Randle may have to take far less than $40.5 million in starting salary to entice the Knicks into handing him a new contract this summer.”
Former Knicks GM Scott Perry believes New York should re-sign Randle at the first opportunity. “The Knicks should definitely sign Julius Randle to an extension, and here’s why,” Perry said during Monday's episode of ESPN’s NBA Today. “The Knicks are in desperate need of having that reliable second scorer. We saw that they missed that in the playoffs. [Jalen Brunson] needs somebody to be able to take the load off of him when other teams try to go after him, and double-team him, and scheme him. Julius has a personal connection with this organization. He’s played for Thibs for the last four years. He has a connection with his teammates and the front office. He knows what it’s like to play in New York. He has unfinished business playing in New York."
- of The Knicks Film School newsletter sees three logical outcomes:
1. They will ultimately pay Julius whatever it takes to keep him, knowing that Randle at an unpleasant number is better than no Randle (and no Randle salary slot) at all
2. They will sign and trade Randle for a different star next summer
3. They will move Randle this summer
Randle’s contract situation will be worth keeping an eye on. I have the Knicks as being the second-best team in the East heading into the new season (sorry, Philly). How Randle plays, his level of happiness and his long-term future will all play a part in how successful the franchise can be. After all, if the rumor mill stats churning, and he becomes disgruntled…Well, we all know what an unhappy player can do to a locker room…
That’s all for today, folks. Before you go, I’m still looking for feedback on the new newsletter style and whether you prefer it, dislike it, or don’t really care either way. As always, any shares are very much appreciated!