Celtics vs. Knicks: A Crossover Conversation with Jonathan Macri
A chat with Jonathan Macri ahead of tonight's Celtics/Knicks matchup...Could this be an Eastern Conference Finals preview?
**This post was scheduled to run before the Jrue Holiday news broke. I will have some coverage of his contract extension later today…Now, onto the good stuff!**
Later today, the Boston Celtics will face the New York Knicks in their last “big” game of the season. This will be the fifth game between these two teams, courtesy of the inaugural In-Season Tournament. Boston has a 4-0 record in this series.
Nevertheless, the Knicks have been impressive all season long. They’ve improved their roster with smart trades and have seen developmental jumps from some of their younger guys. After joining the Golden State Warriors in free agency, Donte DiVincenzo has also been a major storyline for New York. He’s thriving under Tom Thibodeau and has played a huge role.
Let’s face it. For the Celtics, this game has no meaning. There’s nothing on the line. There’s no pride at stake. Yet, for the Knicks, there’s still a reason to bring their A-Game. They currently sit 1.5 games behind the Milwaukee Bucks in their chase for the second seed.
With very little skin in the game, it didn’t make sense for me to dive into a game preview. So, I reached out to
of to do a Q&A ahead of the game. The questions are broader than just the upcoming game. It was fun to chop it up with someone I have collaborated with countless times on multiple projects.Jon is incredibly smart, has a great outlook on the game, and writes in a distinct and entertaining voice. I’m extremely pleased to be able to bring this crossover post to all of you. Anyway, this discussion is split into two parts, each five questions long—the first five are questions I asked Jon, and the second part is the questions he asked me.
5 Knicks Questions for Jonathan Macri
1. You guys are tied with the Orlando Magic for the 3rd seed and are one game behind the Milwaukee Bucks for the 2nd seed. When factoring in potential opponents and how the East is shaking out, what would you envision as the best path over the final few games?
Life comes at you fast, Adam! Since you wrote this to me, the Knicks now have sole possession of third (although by the time you read this email, they might be tied with the Magic again. Crazy times, these are!)
As far as their most ideal path, every time I think about a team I feel like the Knicks would do well against, I find the little voice in my head saying "be careful what you wish for." The Cavs would seem to be the team most vulnerable at the moment because of Mitchell's knee and their general malaise over the last 1-2 months, but I worry about them like a kid who's been picked on one too many times.
Eventually, the bullied will become the bully. Does Cleveland have that in them? Maybe, maybe not, but I bet that would be a harder series than many Knicks fans would imagine. Getting into a track meet against Indy scares me, but I'd feel confident we'd come out on top, albeit probably in a long series. Orlando would be a war, but I think their youth and offensive struggles would ultimately do them in, even if they can probably give Jalen a harder time than any other team in the East. Who knows what state Giannis will be in by round two, if the Bucks even get that far
Final answer: Cavs in round 1 in the 3/6, followed by the winner of Magic (2) / Heat (7) in round 2. Is that even possible? Who the hell knows.
2. This will be the fifth game between Boston and New York this season (thank you, Play-in tournament). What adjustments are you looking for from the Knicks?
I'm looking forward to OG Anunoby stepping foot on the court and playing the game which we know as basketball whilst wearing a Knicks uniform, which is not something that has ever happened before.
I'm sure you've seen the Anunoby plus/minus numbers (but in case your readers haven't, New York is out-scoring teams by 22.5 points per 100 possessions when OG is on the court). Obviously the vast majority of that rating was compiled when Julius Randle was healthy, but even in the 199 minutes Anunoby has played since Julius went down, the Knicks have a positive 17.4 net rating.
I'm curious how Thibs deploys OG against you guys on defense (I'm assuming he'll just get the Tatum matchup, as Thibodeau is usually pretty straightforward when it comes to stuff like this), but also how his presence impacts how Boston guards us. In the one game we played following the OG trade (but with OG injured), there were 25 minutes of the non-shooting Precious Achiuwa at the four, and the vast majority of those came with Josh Hart also on the court. Now, Deuce McBride has emerged as even more of a floor-spacer than he was then, so if Hart is having one of his hesitant games, New York can pivot to some more 3-guard lineups with McBride and DiVincenzo flanking Brunson.
Does Thibs take that risk against Boston's size? It's something I'll be watching.
3. When looking at the defensive play-type data on Synergy, the Knicks seem to be a robust defensive team with limited weaknesses. Things look different on offense, though. What would you say the team's biggest weakness is, heading into the postseason?
Again, I think everything needs to be put into context. This team has been running some patchwork lineups over the last few months, but even with the loss of Julius and, until recently, OG, and with the underwhelming play of the Pistons imports, when JB (Jalen Brunson) shares the court with Hartenstein and Donte, the Knicks have put up 125.7 points per 100 possessions since Randle's last game.
That said, the offense can still bog down, not only when Brunson isn't on the floor (although those minutes have been better the last couple games), but if their shooters are having off nights and teams feel more comfortable loading up on Jalen a bit. But even then, DiVincenzo and McBride both constantly fire away without hesitation, and they're each above 40 percent from downtown on real volume.
4. The Celtics have had some issues controlling their defensive glass and limiting scoring off DHOs - how much do you think that will play into the Knicks gameplan on Thursday?
Offensive rebounding isn't as vital to New York's offense as it was last year, but it's still probably the easiest way for them to beat teams. They're the best offensive-rebounding team in the NBA by percentage, but interestingly enough, they are only 4-12 this season when they grab at least 16 offensive boards.
As for DHOs, that's become such a big part of New York's offense with Isaiah Hartenstein as the starting center. Fans in other cities may not realize how big a part of the puzzle he's become, especially with the continued perception that Mitchell Robinson is the better big man. Mitch can do some special things when he's going right, but he's incredibly limited on offense and hasn't been quite the same defensive force since returning from injury. In short, one of the ways that New York has limited the amount of on-ball creation they need from Brunson is by running him in more off-ball stuff, and I-Hart is usually at the center of that with DHOs.
5. When the Knicks added OG, Bojan and Burks earlier this year, I was high on them being a contender to make the ECF -- given their injury issues, where are you ranking those chances? And how do you think they would fare vs. Boston in a 7-game series?
I think I'd probably pick them to win against any team besides Boston and maybe Philly, because Joel Embiid scares the daylights out of me. The Celtics are just such a bear. They have no weaknesses other than the ones they impose on themselves, at least as far as I can tell. I'd like our chances in the last 5 minutes of a close game, but keeping it close for 43 minutes is like ice skating uphill.
Any weak spot you present, they will find it and exploit it. Deuce has been awesome, but he's 6'2", and your wings will hunt that matchup. Bogey must look like a walking pile of chop meat to Tatum and Brown. Trusting Mitch to make the right decisions against a stretch big is always dicey. Precious at the 4 is spacing death.
All of the sudden, you're left with 5 guys you feel truly comfortable with if you're Thibs (and really 6 if they can align Deuce's minutes with the moments one of Tatum or Brown sits). Maybe Robinson is the wild card. If he can get back to being the player he was at the beginning of the year, he can still be incredibly disruptive, even if I don't love this matchup for him.
Gun to my head, I think the Knicks find a way to push it to a 6th game, which would be at MSG, so who knows. If nothing else, I think it would be a fun series.
5 Celtics Questions for Adam Taylor
1. How do Celtics fans want Joe Mazzulla to approach the end of this regular season? Push for 66 wins (or possibly 65 by the time you answer this)? Keep everyone in bubble wrap? Something in between?
There are two camps here.
The first camp wants Mazzulla to pull the plug on the remaining games, rest as many stars as possible, and keep everybody fresh for the postseason. The issue is that the Maine Celtics are in the G-League final, so there aren’t enough players on the bench to sit the primary rotation against the Knicks —some guys will have to play.
The question then becomes, who do you sit? Who can you afford to risk? And if some players will suit up, why not just run a full-strength lineup and keep the rust off, at least for one more game? After the Knicks game? Sure, sit as many players as you can without risking the wrath of the league office and keep everybody healthy for the postseason run.
The second camp is concerned about rust. They would rather the Celtics keep their foot on the gas. Approach every game like there’s still something left to play for and keep building momentum based on high-level execution on both sides of the ball.
For this group, the risk of losing some of the edge that has seen the Celtics dominate all season is worth betting on the roster's health. Even after we saw Giannis go down with a minor injury on Tuesday, there is still a vocal section of the fanbase keen to see Boston keep their foot on the gas.
I sit firmly in the first group. I think it’s far more prudent to protect the primary rotation over the last three games. There’s nothing to play for. Any discussion of playing for pride can quickly be hushed by pointing to the team’s record and the gap between the Celtics and the chasing pack. Bubble wrap. Lots and lots of bubble wrap.
2. Where do you stand on Tatum's MVP candidacy? We're stanning pretty hard for a Brunson 5th place finish over here. How important has Jayson actually been to Boston's overwhelming success?
This is a tough one. I get where the naysayers are coming from. Tatum isn’t dominating the scoring charts. He hasn’t been lighting the league up in terms of highlights. And he’s on a team full of All-Star-level talent with multiple future Hall of Famers around him. However, despite all of that, he’s still shone as the Celtics’ most complete player.
Tatum is 7th in points per game, 26th in rebounds per game, and in the 97th percentile for Estimated Plus Minus with +4.8 (which is my impact metric of choice.) Most importantly, the leap he’s taken as a facilitator has unlocked a new dimension to his game. Tatum is assisting on a career-high 21% of his teammates' buckets this season. He’s making incredible reads out of double-teams. He’s finding swing passes to the weakside corner with consistency. And he’s cut down his turnovers to 2.5 per game which is solid considering he leads the Celtics in touches.
On defense, Tatum has thrived as a weakside helper while proving he can consume some on-ball reps as part of Mazzulla’s switch 1-through-4 system.
The bigger issue is that the Celtics are incredibly deep. Everyone on the roster has had to sacrifice aspects of their game. Tatum has been no different. And it's that sacrifice that will likely cost him any real chance of being a frontrunner in this year’s MVP race. I’m not too concerned, though. Boston’s championship window is wide open, so that’s where the focus has to be. The fact he’s in the discussion is proof that the Celtics have the top-tier player you associate with a championship-caliber roster.
3. I posited during the season that no team in recent memory had more pressure on them to win it all (or at the very least, get to the Finals). I think the reasons are obvious - relatively weak East, possible difficulties paying your roster long term, some core members on the downside of their career - but do you agree with that assessment? Would a hard fought loss to the Nuggets feel like it isn't a failure, if not an outright success?
I agree with your assessment, Jon. There is significant pressure on the Celtics to win a chip. I would postulate that we’re looking at a two-year window here. Three is the chips fall right. Can you guarantee another healthy season like this one? Can the Celtics continue to dominate the way they have this year? Will everyone continue to buy into reduced roles for the chances of championship success? And will Brad Stevens be able to rebuild the bench during the summer when some tough decisions will likely need to be made?
As with any championship-level team, there are countless variables that can factor into an opportunity to compete at the highest level. I would point to the LA Clippers and Kawhi Leonard’s injury issues in recent years. The same with Paul George. Or to the Milwaukee Bucks, who have two All-NBA talents but are struggling with the supporting cast.
You can have all the talent in the world. You can make it work. But every season is its own entity. The Celtics have a chance to win now. Making excuses that the next season or the one after that could provide the same opportunity isn’t going to cut it. So yeah, I would say the pressure is firmly on…And I think the season the Celtics have enjoyed has only raised that platform and the scrutiny they will be under.
4. What (or who) is your biggest internal concern heading into the playoffs?
That’s easy. Nikola Jokic. He’s the best player in the world. The Denver Nuggets are bonkers good. They’re a product of patience, familiarity, exceptional coaching, and a resilient hunger. If Boston gets to the NBA Finals, and the Nuggets are staring back at them, I’m going to have a fair amount of butterflies.
Outside of Jokic and Denver, the Clippers are a team I think is getting slept on right now. They’ve endured a slide recently. But, despite the aging talent on their roster, I think Ty Lue is an incredible coach — up there with Erik Spoelstra — and I fear any team with James Harden, Leonard, George and Russell Westbrook in the rotation. I know their names are bigger than their games at this point, but in this league, on the biggest stages, experience matters. And they ooze experience.
5. Which East team (or player) worries you the most, and how would you grade that level of concern on a scale of 1-10?
No, I am not saying this to appease your readers. I have receipts. Go back and listen to any of my podcasts since February 8. The Knicks, when (or at this point IF) healthy, are one of my biggest concerns in the East. Generally, they play the Celtics well. Adding OG Anunoby has ensured you guys have the wing defense to compete against the Tatum and Brown pairing. Brunson is having an Isaiah Thomas-level impact on your offense, and I freaking love Josh Hart. I think you guys could be a problem in the postseason if you’re healthy — I’m just not sure it will be this postseason.
Of course, outside of New York, I would be foolish to count out the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat. Both reasons are obvious here. I want to face Miami early in the playoffs to exorcise those ghosts and remove any lingering doubt.
I’m bullish, though. I think it’s fair to say the Celtics are the best team in the East by a comfortable margin. Whether they can prove that in a seven-game series against a motivated Knicks/Bucks/Heat team remains to be seen.
If I had to rank coming into this playoffs, in terms of an “o-shit-o-meter” this would be my choice (note I’m purposely leaving Philadelphia off this list, as I’m not sold that Embiid is playoff ready. If he is, they quickly beat out the Magic and take the place of the Cavs.)
1 - Bucks
2 - Knicks
3 - Cavs
4 - Heat
5 - Magic
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