Control the Pace(rs)

A scouting report on the Indiana Pacers ahead of the Eastern Conference Finals

For the second straight series, the Boston Celtics found themselves waiting around to find out who their next opponent would be. The Indiana Pacers secured a Game 7 win over a hobbled and battle-beaten New York Knicks team to progress onto the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Pacers are a fun young team. They like to run. They play a high-paced offense. And they will be a different type of challenge for Joe Mazzulla’s team. Boston will open the series against the Pacers on Tuesday.

In what has become tradition, let’s examine what makes the Pacers tick on both sides of the floor so we know what to expect come opening tip.

Indiana: By the numbers

The Pacers ended the regular season with the 2nd best offense in the NBA, sitting directly behind the Celtics for offensive rating, averaging 120.5 points per 100 possessions. They boast the best offensive rating in the playoffs, averaging 121.7 points — Boston is directly behind them in second place.

Things look drastically different on the defensive end, though. Indiana was ranked 24th in defensive rating during the regular season, allowing 117.6 points per 100. Boston was second, allowing just 110.6. The Pacers are 13th out of all playoff teams on defense, too, with a defensive rating of 118.1 — The Celtics are third with 106.1.

Indiana’s defensive issues will be a major weakness against the Celtics. At some point, the balance of a team’s approach will be a factor in their chances of success. For the Pacers, it looks like that point will be in the conference finals.

The Celtics aren’t a team you want to get into a shootout with — they’re just as talented on offense but have a far more dominant rearguard, which should prove to be the difference maker.

Let’s start peeling off some additional layers. All data, unless stated otherwise, is courtesy of Cleaning The Glass. I have stuck with regular-season data because it has a bigger sample size and paints a clearer picture.

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is where Indiana’s offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Pacers are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.

• Around the rim - 35.5%, 3rd in the league

• Mid-Range - 29.1%, 23rd in the league

  • Short mid-range - 22.2%, 17th in the league

  • Long mid-range, 7%, 25th in the league

• 3-Point range - 35.3%, 18th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 26.3%, 16th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 9%, 23rd in the league

Offensive Shot location accuracy

This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court - the higher the league ranking, the better the Pacers are at scoring in those areas.

• Around the rim - 68.4%, 8th in the league

• Mid-Range - 48.7%, 1st in the league

  • Short mid-range - 47.8%, 2nd in the league

  • Long mid-range, 48.7%, 1st in the league

• 3-Point range - 37.9%, 10th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 36.8%, 12th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 41.1%, 6th in the league

Putting that into context

The Pacers like to pressure the rim. Over a third of their offense comes within four feet of the cup, and they finish at a high rate. That approach has stayed true during the postseason. They attack the rim 32.9% of the time in the playoffs and hit 67.8% of their interior looks.

Without Kristaps Porzingis in the rotation, Mazzulla must find a way to limit Indiana’s ability to generate offense in the paint. Drop defense may not be the best approach, either. While the Pacers don’t take a ton of mid-range shots, they’re among the best teams in the NBA at converting those attempts — again, that has stayed true during the postseason, hitting 48.7% from mid-range.

As such, we may see the Celtics playing up-to-touch on screens, or they may adopt a heavier focus on switching actions to try and limit the space in the mid-range while also impacting downhill drives. Should Porzingis return during the series, moving back to drop would be logical due to the rim protection he provides.

The Pacers are also a threat on the perimeter. They ended the regular season as a top-10 team from deep in terms of conversion rate. However, their overall volume is lower than I would have expected. That volume has slightly increased during the playoffs, with it jumping to 37.8% of the offense, placing them 7th among postseason teams.

Boston must be smart in how the pressure the perimeter. Close-out too hard, and the Pacers will cook you on one/two dribble pull-ups or drive right by you to attack the rim. Sag off, and they’re more than confident enough to let that thing fly.

As such, we could see the Celtics implement some higher pick-up points or perhaps throw out some curveballs with their 2-1-2 press defense from time to time — that’s something we haven’t seen much of during the playoffs, but it is certainly in their back pocket.

Defensive shot location frequency

This is where opposing teams look to generate their offense against the Pacers’ defense - the lower the league ranking, the more frequently teams attack those spots.

• Around the rim - 37.6%, 30th in the league

• Mid-range - 32.9%, 25th in the league

  • Short mid-rage - 24.5%, 26th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 8.4%, 4th in the league

• 3-Point range - 29.5%, 1st in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 22.3%, 1st in the league

  • Corner 3 - 7.2%, 1st in the league

Defensive shot location success rate

This is where opposing teams find success on offense - the lower the league ranking, the more successful teams are from those spots.

• Around the rim - 65.6%, 9th in the league

• Mid-range - 46.6%, 30th in the league

  • Short mid-rage - 42.1%, 28th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 47.1%, 28th in the league

• 3-Point range - 36.9%, 16th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 35.9%, 11th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 40.3%, 22nd in the league

Putting that into context

The Pacers want to funnel you toward the paint. They ended the regular season as the top-ranked team for limiting shot attempts from the perimeter but the bottom-ranked team for shot attempts around their rim. However, they were 9th in defending those rim attempts.

Carlisle’s team will pressure ball-handlers on the perimeter. However, they may come unstuck against the Celtics. Mazzulla has multiple slashers and post-scorers to call upon. Running actions out of the post should pull Indiana’s perimeter defenders away from the three-point line, allowing kick-outs to find open shooters.

Essentially, how the Pacers defend lends itself to how Boston likes to attack. The only question coming into this series will be whether the Celtics continue getting downhill early in games to try and get themselves going. Most importantly, the Celtics can’t get caught in the trap of trying to beat Indiana’s perimeter defense with an overcorrection on the perimeter. They have to stick to their game and generate quality shots.

Another interesting caveat here is that the Pacers have one of the best mid-range defenses in the NBA. Considering the Celtics have embraced that area of the floor during the postseason—with Brown and Tatum leading that charge—this could be a battle between high-level scorers and a high-level defense; if the Celtics can control the midrange, they could force the Pacers’ defense to bend, at which point cracks will quickly show.

Setting the Stage for the Celtics: Control the tempo

The Pacers finished the regular season ranked 2nd in pace. Boston was 19th. In the postseason, Indiana is 9th in pace with the Celtics sitting dead last at 16th.

The Celtics must find a way to control the tempo of the game. That should start on the glass.

Since the playoffs began, Indiana has averaged 40.9 boards per night, ranking them 12th in the postseason. The Celtics are pulling down four extra rebounds (44.9) and sit 3rd in the playoffs and first among the remaining teams. Mazzulla will need his team to up that average in this series.

The more the Celtics can grab defensive boards, the more they can set the tempo and terms of engagement. If Boston limits second-chance opportunities and the Pacers find themselves in a one-and-done situation on most trips down the court, they may look to slow down their offense to find the best available shot. If the Celtics can force Indiana into that style of play, they’ve taken control of the game.

Or, the Pacers, being a young team, could over-correct and look to get shots up quicker, leading to a disjointed approach and thus shooting themselves into a slump. Either way, controlling the tempo of a game starts on the glass; everything else stems from there.

Tatum, Brown, Horford, and, to a lesser extent, Holiday and White are all solid defensive rebounders. If they can find a way to keep Myles Turner out of the paint and they box out high and early, there’s a strong chance the Celtics can own the boards. Of course, as the series wears on, adjustments will be made on both sides and controlling the tempo is only one part of the task that Boston is facing.

Setting the Stage for the Celtics: Opening up the perimeter

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is where Boston’s offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Celtics are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.

• Around the rim - 29.1%, 26th in the league

• Mid-Range - 27.1%, 29th in the league

  • Short mid-range - 18%, 29th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 9.1%, 14th in the league

• 3-Point range - 43.7%, 1st in the league

  • Non-corner 3’s - 33.8%, 1st in the league

  • Corner 3 - 9.9%, 12th in the league

Offensive Shot location accuracy

This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court - the higher the league ranking, the better the Celtics are at scoring in those areas.

• Around the rim - 70.5%, 4th in the league

• Mid-Range - 44.6%, 12th in the league

  • Short mid-range - 44.7%, 13th in the league

  • Long mid-range, 44.2%, 9th in the league

• 3-Point range - 39.3%, 2nd in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 38.1%, 8th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 43.6%, 1st in the league

We’ll examine this in four sections: Spray Threes, Post Creation, Screening Sequences and Slot 5.

As a quick reminder, the Pacers were the best team in the NBA at limiting shot attempts on the perimeter, but were middle-of-the-road in terms of impacting those shots when they occurred.

Spray threes

“When that ball comes to me and I got a guy closing out to me, now that’s when the snap drive is available,” Sacramento Kings head coach Mike Brown said back in March. “The snap drive is not always just available for me to score it because they may still be there from collapsing the first time, but the snap drive may now be I take one, two (dribbles), get in that paint, and now I spray it, and now that guy maybe kicks it.”

Essentially, a spray three is a drive and kick that ends up in the hands of a shooter. My good friend - and occasional podcast co-host - Brenden Nunes did a great dive into Brown’s comments, which I linked in the quote.

A significant chunk of the Celtics offense is built on spray actions. During the regular season, the Celtics averaged 39.9 drives per game. They passed out of those drives 34.6% of the time. Of course, not every pass was to the perimeter, some could have been wrap-arounds or dump-offs. Some could have been to a secondary cutter. But, for the most part, they were to shooters spacing the floor.

Boston led the NBA in catch-and-shoot scoring during the regular season, averaging 35.5 points per game. They shot 40.6% on C&S attempts from the perimeter with 28 of their 29.3 C&S attempts coming from deep.

Boston’s five-out offense is predicated on having shooters at every position. They also have multiple guys who can forcefully drive the rock and make reads as the defense collapses. Indiana will have a tough decision to make: do they collapse their defense on drives? Or do they stay home on shooters around the perimeter?

Collapse and the Celtics will fire spray passes to open shooters all night long. Stay home, and there’s enough scoring talent to feel confident that there will be a steady flow of interior offense to keep Boston in the game.

It doesn’t matter if these opportunities come in transition or in the half-court. Boston will find ways of getting paint touches, and when they do, they will attack whatever crowd you’ve sent at them. Such is the beauty of their roster construction: there are no weak links.

Post creation

The Celtics like to post up. They run multiple actions to get Tatum, Brown, Porzingis or even Holiday into the post. They draw double teams. They attack off the bounce. Or, if possible, they shoot right over the top of the defense. It’s part of their system, and it’s a part that could be impactful against Indiana.

The Pacers defend the mid-range. That means they’re digging, trapping, and rotating. Having a scorer in the post will generate gravity. Those scorers being reliable passers is where the Celtics often find an advantage.

Take the above play, for example. Horford’s cut pulls Bam Adebayo away from the perimeter. Duncan Robinson is over-helping off the weakside corner. Tatum makes the read, hits the cross-court pass, and boom, an open three.

Here’s another example of the Celtics using a quick post-entry to create offense on the perimeter. Derrick White’s drive to the nail draws the defense. A pass to Horford forces a collapse before White relocates above the break and nails a catch-and-shoot three.

Running some post-creation is an option the Celtics can use to help counter the perimeter pressure the Pacers like to apply. The fact that Mazzulla has multiple post players to rely on only further strengthens the argument to lean into some post offense if Indiana’s perimeter defense is proving problematic during games.

Screening sequences

As we’re all aware, the Celtics love to hunt mismatches. They do this by running screening actions to force switches and generate favorable matchups on the perimeter, often leading to isolation or drive-and-kick offense.

Not every screening sequence will be designed to generate a three. Some will be to allow an easier path to the rim — which could end in a kick-out, or it could end in a bucket. Some will open up secondary actions elsewhere on the floor. The point is, it puts the defense in rotation, and when that happens, you’re attacking off the front foot.

Take this clip for example. The Celtics run a shallow ‘ram’ action around the nail. The result is a switch that allows Tatum to bully his way to the rim. The screening sequence generate the mismatch, it opened up the middle of the floor and generated the necessary space for the Celtics offense to thrive.

Here, the Celtics flow into a ‘chest’ action which is a ghost screen followed by a flare screen. In the clip I’ve chosen, Brown doesn’t flare into space for the catch-and-shoot bucket. He continues to curl toward the rim operating as a stampede cutter and pressuring the rim. This sequence gave the Celtics floor spacing with Horford popping onto the perimeter and one of the best slashers in the league cutting toward the bucket.

Watch how the offense then gets the ball in motion. Brown’s cut forces a collapse. A kick-out gives Horford a chance to attack a close-out, and the ball starts to ping around until a good shot opens up. These sequences are what generate open looks against a tough defense and will be a core part of the Celtics overall offensive approach.

We’ve spent a significant amount of time looking at Boston’s screening-based offensive system over the past few months, so I’m not going to dive too deep here. We get the idea: screen, force mismatches, create rotations, drive, pressure, find space and exploit.

5 Slot

Before we look at this, I’ve got to credit Bowser2Bowser from Twitter. He put together a great video on Boston’s ‘5 slot’ adjustment following Porzingis’ injury, which I personally learned a lot from. You can watch that video here.

I’ve taken this screen grab from Bowser2Bowser’s video, as it illustrates the concept well. Kornet is the player in the 5 slot in this instance. The idea is that by placing your big in the slot, it drags the x5 (5 man defender) higher up the floor. Yes, they can 2-9 in the paint, but when they cleanse, they’re doing so by stepping toward the five men, creating additional space in the middle of the floor.

Boston used this concept throughout their series with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Running some ‘5 slot’ against the Pacers could force them to alter their defensive principle of funneling teams toward the rim. If Turner is being pulled to the weak slow, there’s no rim protector in or around the paint, thus negating the benefit of encouraging teams to attack downhill.

Furthermore, as the big rotate to defend the rim, they’re leaving a big open, which can lead to kick-outs or secondary cuts, like this one from Kornet in game five vs. Cleveland.

Celtics vs. Pacers: The Matchups

Matchups are always fluid. Mazzulla has shown a willingness to be experimental throughout games and the lifespan of a series. For example, he could choose to cross-match Holiday with Turner to limit the impact of a Haliburton/Turner pick-and-roll. Or he could opt to have Tatum pick up Haliburton on the perimeter to throw some additional length to try and slow down the playmaking wizardry.

If I had to hazard a guess, I would expect the opening matchups to be something like

Haliburton - Holiday

Nembhard - White

Nesmith - Tatum

Siakam - Brown

Turner - Horford

Typically, Tatum has drawn the Siakam matchup, especially when Siakam was with the Toronto Raptors. However, Brown has been vocal about guarding the opposing team’s best player throughout the season, and Siakam would give him a different kind of test. With Game 1 scheduled for Tuesday, we won’t have long to wait to find out how the initial matchups end up looking.

Let me know your thoughts on the potential matchup combinations in the comments section!

Three questions I have heading into the game

1. Will we see some Xavier Tillman?

   1. The Pacers have shooting at every position. Kornet’s effectiveness as a rim protector could be compromised if Carlise’s team looks to run delay actions and feed the big men on the perimeter. Tillman’s ability to guard on the perimeter, switch actions, and provide physicality around the rim may be better suited to containing Indiana’s offense and controlling the glass. What the Celtics would be giving up in size, they would be getting in versatility and physicality. That could be an acceptable tradeoff if Kornet finds himself getting exploited when checking into games.

2. When will we see Porzingis?

   1. “Porzingis has been making progress in his recovery from a soleus strain of his right calf, ramping up his on-court activity for an anticipated return in the conference finals, but still needs more time for a return to play, sources said,” Adrian Wojnarowski has reported. “He is likely to miss the opening two games of the East finals, scheduled for Tuesday and Thursday in Boston.”
      
      That doesn't mean we can bank on Porzingis being back for Game 3. It means that he is definitely not back for the opening two games. The Celtics must be cautious with bringing back their star big man. They’re going to need him deeper in the series and in the NBA Finals. Still, with Porzingis on the floor, the Celtics are at their best. His presence would help them push for a shorter series against a well-drilled, doe-eyed young roster.

3. Will the Celtics embrace a shoot-out?

   1. The Celtics are one of the only teams in the NBA the Pacers should avoid getting into a shootout with. Boston has more scoring, more shooting, and more top-end talent. They can thrive in space. They can cook from all three levels. Indiana’s run-and-gun offense could wind up being their undoing. However, the Celtics should be cautious about building their game plan around going toe-for-toe with a team that’s too young to realize it’s outmatched. Still, I wouldn't be shocked if we see the Celtics beat — or at least match — the Pacers at their own game for stretches of games during this series.

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Wrapping it up

The Pacers will be coming into this series after a grueling battle with the New York Knicks. However, they showed their resolve and their impressive talent as they overcame Tom Thibodeau’s team on their home floor. The Celtics aren’t in for an easy ride in this series. Carlise’s team is fun, abrasive, and talented.

Still, the Celtics are on the verge of returning to the NBA Finals. They’ve won 3-of-5 against the Pacers this season. And they have the more talented team. They will want to continue working toward their goal of winning a championship this season, the Pacers are just the latest hurdle in their way.

As always, I’m excited to see the series get underway and for the Celtics to get back on the floor.

If you’re new here, thanks for stopping by! I hope you choose to stick around. If you’re a subscriber, I appreciate the support and your choosing to rock with the newsletter. Catch everyone tomorrow.