Deep diving into JJ Redick's comments on Kristaps Porzingis
Porzingis has become a huge X-Factor for the Celtics this season.
Yesterday, JJ Redick had himself a day. Multiple clips of his appearance on ESPN’s First Take went viral. He called out Doc Rivers. He argued with Pat Bev. And…he called Kristaps Porzingis the ‘absolute difference-maker’ for the Boston Celtics.
Obviously, I liked the segment about Doc and couldn’t really care less about the beef with Bev — it’s fun to see unfold, though — and I loved the segment about Porzingis. Redick made some good points. He called Porzingis ‘the most important third option in the NBA.’ He noted how Boston’s post-up game was a vehicle to attack mismatches and punish cross-matching defenses. It was a great segment with a genuine data-led opinion.
If you haven’t seen it, here it is.
"This guy is a total difference-maker for them," Redick said. "He has given them a new dynamic for their offense. And he's providing essentially the same defense that Robert Williams was giving them...Right now the Celtics have essentially tripled their frequency in post-ups. They're hunting mismatches. Kristaps Porzingis unlocks their defense (meaning offense, Redick mis-spoke)...He's having the most efficient season posting up the basketball in the past 10 years...He's the most important third option in the NBA."
Cook, JJ. Cook.
After watching this, I thought to myself, ‘You know what would be fun? Running with this and taking a deeper dive into Porzingis’ overall impact on the Celtics.’
Let’s get started.
Post-up’s
Playing out of the post has become a genuine weapon for the Celtics. Jayson Tatum has been feasting since incorporating more post-work into his offensive game. Jaylen Brown has shown he can bully his way from the post to his mid-range spots. Porzingis, on the other hand, well he likes to shoot over his man and punish mismatches with regularity.
Oh, then there’s Jrue Holiday and Al Horford, who can both do work in the post, too.
With so many post-up options, it’s logical to expect the Celtics to increase their post frequency, right? Let’s take a look at the last three seasons.
This season, the Celtics are second in post-up frequency, averaging 8.1 possession per game (7.3% of total possessions.) Out of those post-ups, Boston ranks first in the NBA for scoring with 1.17 points per possession.
That’s 58.4% shooting on 5.9 field goal attempts. They’re also drawing shooting fouls on almost a quarter of their post-ups (19.7%.)
Last season, the Celtics were 24th in post-up frequency. They averaged 3.1 possessions per game. They averaged 1 point per possession, giving them a 50.3% field goal percentage, which ranked 13th in the league.
They drew shooting fouls on 15.7% of their post-up plays and converted and-1s on 4.3% of those foul calls.
Under Ime Udoka, in the 2021-22 season, Boston ranked 13th in post-ups. They averaged 1.02 points per possession. They shot 51% from the field. They drew fouls on 14.5% of their post-ups.
So, yes, it’s true, not only are the Celtics going into the post more, they’re having significantly better success from that area of the floor. Porzingis is a huge part of that. Here are his numbers out of the post this season.
3.1 possessions per game, 1.41 points per possession, 68.8% shooting, 27% fouled frequency. 98th percentile, 10.7% turnover frequency.
Where do those numbers rank among Porzingis Celtics teammates, though?
Tatum: 2.5 possessions per game, 1.16 points per possession, 56.4% shooting, 20.9% fouled frequency. 82nd percentile.
Brown: 1.9 possessions per game, 1.07 points per possession, 56.8% shooting. 13.8 fouled frequency. 65th percentile.
Holiday: 1.1 possessions per game, 1 point per possession, 52.6% shooting. 9.3% fouled frequency. 26th percentile.
Clearly, Porzingis is the Celtics’ most efficient scorer out of the post, with Tatum coming in second. That tracks with what see during games and when breaking down film. The only factor that needs to be pointed out here is that Tatum is a more versatile post threat, as he can create for himself off the dribble, bully his way through traffic when facing up, and is a gifted and continually improving passer out of double teams.
Still, in terms of straight-up bucket-getting, Porzingis is your man in the post.
Let’s look at a couple of clips.
This clip is the ideal depiction of what Redick is talking about. Porzingis has a mismatch with Duncan Robinson. Naturally, the ball finds its way to him in the post. The Miami Heat send help to pressure Porzingis with the double-team. Rather than panic, he brings the ball up high, turns, faces the basket, and shoots over the top of the defense. His size difference gives him a clean look at the rim, limited shot pressure on the release, and an easy bucket out of an otherwise difficult scoring situation.
This time, we have Porzingis operating on the elbow as he looks to attack out of a high post-up. You can see him jostling for position, sealing his man off to create a passing lane and give himself room to face up. Once again, a double team comes to pressure his decision-making. And once again, he faces up and shoots straight over the defense.
Having a 7’2’’ big man, with Porzingis skillset, surrounded by other All-Star-level talents, is a cheat code. No wonder the Celtics are spamming it whenever possible.
Outside of the post, Redick also noted that Porzingis was succeeding as a roll man and floor spacer. Again, both of these things can be confirmed when watching games and doing some film work. However, if we want to look at things statistically, we can. Let’s take a quick gander.
As the roll man,
Porzingis is averaging 3.3 possessions per game, 1.32 points per possession, 56% shooting, 9.9% foul frequency, and 7.6% turnover frequency. 78th percentile.
When discussing Porzingis as a roller, we quickly arrive at the discussion surrounding his versatility, both as a scorer and a screener.
Here, he is operating as a drag screener — which is a screen set in transition that creates an early offensive advantage by forcing a switch before the defense is fully set. After setting the screen, he slows down his roll, mirrors Jrue Holiday’s pace, and offers a passing outlet. Porzingis waits for Holiday to draw two defenders, then slips toward the rim. It's almost impossible to defend once he gets the pass inside the restricted area.
Here, Boston goes to an empty-side pick-and-roll. This was a staple action for Mazzulla’s team earlier in the season, although they’ve moved away from it as the basketball year has progressed. Nevertheless, having the empty side, meaning no corner defender suits Porzingis’ skillset as a roller. He has great hip flexibility. He can change directions quickly and for his size, is incredibly mobile.
This play works because the defensive big has to contain the dribble before recovering to the roller. Here, you see Mitchell Robinson position himself at the nail for a couple of beats. That gives Porzingis time to roll out of the screen and into the space created by the empty side. From there, it’s a simple pocket pass to split the defense, and KP is back at the rim for another dunk.
As a Spot-up shooter,
Porzingis is averaging 3.3 possessions per game, 1.08 points per 100, 38.2% FG, 0.8% turnover frequency, and 7.6% foul frequency. 58th percentile.
Most of Porzingis’ perimeter shots come via spotting up. He’s either spacing the floor as a stationary shooter, or he’s popping out of screening actions before setting his feet and receiving the ball. Either way, those shots are likely being tracked as spot-up opportunities. His perimeter game has also been key in unlocking the Celtics offensive system.
Here, you have Porzingis operating as the second screener in a “Ram Pop” action. Once he screens for Tatum, he pops out to his spot above the break, spots up, receives the pass and nails the three. There’s value in this type of movement from your big man, especially when putting him in action with a genuine All-NBA talent. The defense has a tough choice:
Switch and give Tatum the mismatch
Keep two on Tatum and risk Porzingis getting wide-open
Rotate the defense and leave a gap elsewhere on the court — most likely in the weakside corner
None of those options are ideal. It’s a quandary for the defense. That’s what having Porzingis on the floor is giving the Celtics. Just to note, I would like to see Porzingis utilized as the “popper” in stack actions more often, too. He has the mobility, screening skill, and shooting ability to be a real weapon there.
There are multiple other avenues in Porzingis that are impacting Boston’s offensive structure. His work as a hand-off hub. His off-ball screening. His offensive rebounding. His post-playmaking. His success in delay actions. I could go on for 4,000 or 5,000 words just on his offense. That’s not the point of today’s newsletter, though. Instead, we’re focusing on the areas Redick pointed out and going deeper.
I like Redick as an analyst. He’s an ex-NBA guy. He knows the game inside and out. He’s fair in his criticism and his praise. That’s why his comments piqued my interest. And it’s why we’re going into his take with a magnifying glass.
Porzingis’ defense
When it comes to defense, my primary metric is defensive field goal percentage. I think it’s easy to understand and paints the clearest picture. So, with that in mind, Porzingis boasts a 42.5 DFG percentage this season. He’s shooting 48.9% on offense. That gives him a 6.5% point difference when on the floor.
Let’s take this a step further.
Porzingis is holding opponents to 37.2% shooting when guarding on the perimeter. He’s guarding those shots with a 30.6% frequency. Primarily, though, that’s not his role. He needs to be switched out to that distance or is closing out to plug gaps. Mazzulla is rarely tasking his star big with operating that high up the floor.
Instead, Porzingis spends most of his time operating in drop coverage. On average, he’s guarding 13.3 2-point shot attempts per game. He has a 44.8 DFG percentage. Going another step deeper, 7.7 of those defensive shot attempts are coming within 6 feet of the basket — which is essentially in or around the restricted area.
Of those 7.7 attempts, he’s limiting guys to 48.2% shooting. Conversely scores 63.4% of his looks from the same distance on offense. That makes him a +15.2% swing factor in terms of interior scoring. Jrue Holiday is second for the Celtics in this aspect, holding guys to 58.8% and scoring 64% — that’s a 10% drop in interior scoring. That’s how effective Porzingis is.
This example is a great way to see how Porzingis can stay in front of guys on the perimeter and use his size when dropping to protect the rim. Granted, he’s guarding Gradey Dick (a rookie), but the example still stands. Just watch how easily Porzingis stays with his man, times his block, and then recovers to contest the second shot before ending the possession with a rebound.
Jakob Poeltl gets the bucket in the above clip. I wanted to add one where Porzingis is scored on, as you can’t stop every bucket. I chose this play because it shows Porzingis defending through contact, staying with his man, and using his length to increase the degree of difficulty on Poeltl’s shot.
One of the biggest criticisms regarding Porzingis as a defender is that he struggles against physicality. To an extent, that’s fair. We’ve seen him struggle against the league's Andre Drummonds and Mitchell Robinson. However, we’ve also seen him give 100% effort on those defensive possessions and use his size to ensure he’s still a viable cog within Boston’s defensive system.
Finally, I wanted to share my thoughts on Redick, stating that Porzingis is providing a similar defensive impact to Rob Williams. Overall, I agree. The rim protection is arguably better. Porzingis is also more reliable when closing out to perimeter shooters. The primary difference that gives Porzingis the edge in terms of shot contests and shot deterrents is that he stays on his feet.
Williams was, and still is, prone to being over-reliant on his leaping ability. He bites on up fakes too often. And, if you sell it just right, you’ve taken him out of the play, then he’s relying on his explosivness to recover. It makes for great highlights, sure. But, give me the big that can contest shots at a high clip while staying in the play and not adding pressure to help defenders paper over the cracks.
Some more thoughts on Redick’s comments
To add another dimension to this overall deep-dive, I jumped on a podcast with Will Weir and Greg Meneikis — we like to call ourselves “The Three Man Weave” — for an episode of the “Green With Envy” podcast. We explored Redick’s comments and discussed the two-way impact the OG Unicorn has made since arriving in Boston. You can watch the full episode below.
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