Don't Fear the Dear

A preview heading into the Celtics/Bucks game.

There aren’t many big matchups left in the Boston Celtic’s schedule. In total, 14 games are remaining. Two are against the Milwaukee Bucks, one is against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and one is against the New York Knicks. Sprinkle in the surging New Orleans Pelicans, and you have some fun games to watch.

If we’re being honest, tonight’s game against the Bucks is arguably the biggest matchup left on the calendar. The closer we get to the end of the season, the less likely we are to see Joe Mazzulla stick to a full-strength rotation. However, after the Bucks blow-out win earlier in the season, the Celtics have every reason to come into this game looking for blood.

As is becoming customary in this newsletter, I want to examine what makes the Bucks tick and what we can expect heading into the game. However, I do want to provide a slight disclaimer. Unlike the other big games we’ve examined, the Bucks have changed coaches this season. The numbers we will look at are a total sum of their performances this season, so there will undoubtedly be some on-court variance between what we find and what we see tonight.

At least we will head into the game with our eyes wide open, right?

Milwaukee: By the numbers

The Bucks are fifth in the league for offensive rating, averaging 118.8 points per 100 possessions, shy of four points per 100 behind the Celtics. However, their defense has struggled this season, ranking 16th in the league, giving up 115.4 points per 100, making them a middle-of-the-pack defensive team. Those numbers put the Bucks ninth in the league for NetRating with a +3.3.

We’ve all seen, heard, and likely read about the Bucks’ defensive issues this season. Adding Damian Lillard has created some issues for the coaching staff, as they look to lean into his offensive brilliance while hiding his defensive flaws. That is still a work in progress. Losing Jrue Holiday has been a major blow to the team’s defensive identity, as has the gradual decline of Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez.

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is where the Bucks offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Bucks are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.

• Around the rim - 32.7%, 19th in the league

• Mid-Range - 28%, 27nd in the league

  • Short mid-range - 17.8%, 30th in the league

  • Long mid-range - 10.2%, 6th in the league

• 3-Point range - 39.3%, 6th in the league

  • Non-corner 3’s - 28.5%, 8th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 10.8%, 6th in the league

Offensive Shot location frequency

This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court - the higher the league ranking, the better the Bucks are at scoring in those areas.

• Around the rim - 71.3%, 2nd in the league

• Mid-Range - 43.7%, 14th in the league

  • Short mid-range - 43%, 16th in the league

  • Long mid-range, 44.9%, 5th in the league

• 3-Point range - 38%, 10th in the league

  • Non-Corner 3’s - 36.7%, 13th in the league

  • Corner 3 - 41.6%, 6th in the league

Putting that into context

The Bucks offense is designed around a heavy dose of perimeter shots. The aim is to likely stretch out the opposing defense to provide driving lanes for Giannis Antetokounmpo to exploit.

There will be an interesting matchup around Bosotn’s rim. The Celtics are 3rd in the league for defensive field goal percentage around the cup, limiting teams to 63% shooting and 3rd in defensive rim attempt frequency.

Boston will allow the Bucks to shoot their hearts out from the perimeter, knowing they have a top-3 perimeter defense with a defensive field-goal percentage of 35.6%. One thing the Celtics will need to watch out for is how the Bucks like to attack defensive close-outs on the perimeter by taking one or two dribble pull-ups from the long mid-range—where they’re shooting 44.9%.

We’re also going to witness a solid battle in the corners. The Bucks are generating a high portion of their 3-point offense on the sides of the floor, whereas the Celtics are 5th in the NBA for limiting those attempts. Whoever wins that battle, will likely control the half-court tempo around the C’ basket.