Examining the Boston Celtics Offensive Balance and Shot Selection
One possession. That's all it takes to lose a game. Two points. Three points. Maybe even four points. That can all happen in one single possession. Momentum swings happen; it's what makes the game fun. One moment, a team is leading by 18. Four minutes later, they're trailing by 3. It's those moments that keep us coming back for more. The never-say-die aspect of the game of basketball is enthralling.
There's also the side of the story when players come into a game and can't put a foot wrong. They hit almost all of their shots. Make the right read every time. They outperform expectations – irrespective of how lofty those expectations are. On the flip side, you can have under-performers, too. Nothing goes to plan; shots clank off the front iron or smash off the back.
The Boston Celtics rode those rollercoasters on Friday. Their two best players struggled to reach their usual production levels. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic couldn't put a foot wrong. And they lost the game by two points, which is, one offensive possession.
You can point fingers all day long.
"Joe Mazzulla should have adjusted the offensive game plan."
"Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown don't have the clutch gene."
"The bench production was abysmal"
I've seen them all. As always, there's probably some truth within those statements born out of frustration. But there's also the flip side to consider. Boston, with their two best players struggling, held the Nuggets to 102 points. They lost to the reigning NBA Champions by one offensive possession.
So, what happens when Tatum and Brown are playing at their best? Because we've just seen the Nuggets stars throw their haymakers. There's hope. Of course, the Nuggets can raise their level. But guess what, so can the Celtics. A potential NBA Finals series between these two teams would be fascinating.
I'm all for it.
Should the Boston Celtics be attacking the rim more?
One of the bigger questions that came out of the Celtics' loss to Denver was whether they should be getting downhill more.
Mazzulla's team took 89 shots during that game. 22% of those shots came at the rim. 15% were in the short mid-range (I like to call this the floater area), and 32% came in the long mid-range. The remaining 46% of their shot profile was from the perimeter.
Almost half.
That's every other shot coming from three-point territory. In fairness, this was slightly more than average. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics lead the NBA in three-point attempts, with it comprising 43.5% of their total shot attempts this season.
Seeing those numbers got me thinking...Where do the other top teams in the NBA (by record this season) rank in three-point attempts?
Shooting frequency from three this season
Milwaukee Bucks - 7th (38.2%)
Philadelphia 76ers - 27th (32.5%)
Minnesota Timberwolves - 20th (34.2%)
Oklahoma City Thunder - 19th (34.2%)
Denver Nuggets - 26th (32.5%)
Even some of the recently surging teams aren't living and dying by the three as much as the Celtics are.
The Utah Jazz rank 9th in three-point frequency, with perimeter shots making up 37.9% of their total attempts. The LA Clippers are 14th with 35.7%. – the list continues.
There are some important caveats here:
Boston has a roster full of three-point shooting threats. Everyone in their top-8 rotation can knock down threes at an above-average clip.
“None of their core players are great 3pt shooters”
Holiday: 42% career 37%
White: 41% career 36%
Brown: 36% career 37%
Tatum: 37% career 37%
Porzingis: 34% career 36%
Horford: 41% career 38%
Literally every single core player is a career above average 3pts shooter and KP is… https://t.co/IzHWVznErI— Corey B (@CoreyB08) January 20, 2024
They have a top-3 offense, with an offensive rating of 120.3
The entire offense is predicated around five-out spacing. They consistently generate high-quality shots from deep, which means they take high-quality shots from deep.
The Celtics are joint fourth (with the Indiana Pacers) in the NBA for 3-point percentage, shooting 38.9% on the season.
Would I prefer the Celtics got downhill more? Of course I would. They're 6th in the league for conversion rate within four feet of the bucket, hitting 69.5% of their shots. It makes sense to get to spots where you convert at a top-10 clip.
This isn't the late 90's or early 2000's, though. Perimeter play is a core part of how teams approach their offense. Mazzulla's team is winning far more than they're losing, too.
We've also seen them adjust their play when threes aren't falling. We've seen them incorporate rim-heavy offense at times. We've seen them go to the post. And we've seen them take advantage of the mid-range.
The numbers I shared above are based on the season to date. Things look different on a game-to-game basis.
To add things into better perspective, for every 1000 shots the Celtics take, 435 are from deep. That means 565 are coming from the two-point range.
Yes, there could be a bit more balance here. Other contending teams are favoring different shot profiles, and it's working...for them...which doesn't mean it would necessarily work for the Celtics.
With that in mind, I'm choosing to trust Mazzulla and his coaching staff. The system they have in place is working, and it's working well.
I mean, Boston lost their 10th game of the season in late January.
One loss, by a single offensive possession, to the current champions, with Tatum and Brown both having off nights, should not be the recipe for a total overhaul of the offense. Not by a long shot.
It's disingenuous to act like this offensive system is flawed when we've been riding the wave all season. Sure, it's ok to want it to be better. Perfection is a flawed ideal that doesn't have a place in reality. Nothing is perfect. Nothing. So, yes, there are ways to improve.
I'm not going to believe that abandoning what's been working is the key to a championship...the Celtics have a whole team of analysts and world-class basketball minds to decide that stuff. I trust them. They've given us no reason not to.
Still, at least we explored the numbers a little deeper. – I would explore some film here too, but for some reason, it's not available on the NBA website, so I can't dive into that with you today, which sucks.
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Richard White keeps the Boston Celtics season in perspective
Last week, Richard White joined the Green With Envy podcast. I was unable to make the recording, but my co-hosts, Will Weir and Greg Maneikis, held it down. For those of you who don't know, Richard is Derrick White's dad. He has also become a voice of reason within Celtics circles on X, formerly known as Twitter.
One thing I really liked from the episode was how Richard pointed out the success the Celtics have had this season and why it's nonsensical to be looking for flaws in a team that is leading the NBA.
"If you look at it through the lens of how you portray the Celtics, whether that be national media or whatever, even local Celtics media, it's Celtics Twitter," White said. "It's like, what are you really complaining at? Because, at this point, there's not another team that's playing better than them."
If you have the time today, I would highly recommend checking out the full interview. There's a cool segment where Richard breaks down some of Derrick's film from the first half of the season and shares his insight into the growth he's seen in his son's game since he joined the Celtics.
I'm not always wearing green goggles
Please don't think I'm unwilling to criticize the Celtics or anything they do. I'm more than willing to share data or film-backed talking points when I think they're warranted. What you're not going to get from me or this newsletter is hot takes or emotionally driven analysis.
Sure, I might joke around with some stuff from time to time, but I'll make sure it's clear I'm operating from a satire standpoint. The world has enough hot-take artists and talking heads. I could probably be far more successful if I adopted that style of content production, too.
That's not me, though. I love this team. I love basketball. I won't do either of those things a disservice in a feeble attempt to go viral or become a go-to source of irrational negativity. Nope. I want to be proud of what I produce. And that means looking at things rationally.
I'll also get things wrong. I'm human. And sometimes, we won't agree. I look forward to those debates. We can all learn from each other.
Anyways, to sum up, yes, I would like to see slightly more rim attempts, but no, I don't think it's a glaring issue or something that needs to be rapidly fixed. The Celtics didn't amass a league-leading record by second-guessing their approach, and I doubt they're about to start now.
Finally, if you haven't already, check out the Discord channel!
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