Exploring the Celtics advantage vs. the Knicks
The New York Knicks have a depleted center rotation
One more sleep.
Every season, on the night before the Boston Celtics play their opening game, I sound like a kid at Christmas. Something about the opening week or two of a season always captivates me. Perhaps it’s the chance to dive into a new or revamped playbook. I’m not sure if I’ll ever know. What I do know is that I enjoyed the WNBA this year. Shoutout to the New York Liberty for their championship win yesterday.
However, while the Liberty celebrated their success, the New York Knicks were frantically running simulations. Tom Thibodeau must find a way to protect the rim when Karl-Anthony Towns is off the court.
Why?
Yesterday, Stefan Bondy of The New York Post reported that Precious Achiuwa had suffered a hamstring injury. He is expected to be out for 2-4 weeks. We’re not new here. We know hamstring injuries can last longer than that…But in truth, that’s not our problem…That’s New York’s problem…That’s KNICKS FANS’ problem.
Achiuwa’s absence does pose an opportunity for the Celtics, though. You see, he isn’t the only big on New York’s injury report. Mitchell Robinson has been ruled out until November/December/January — somewhere around that time. As such, Thibodeau doesn’t have many options in the middle of the floor.
Jericho Sims is the most logical choice. He played in 45 games for New York last season. However, he didn’t suit up in any of the games against Boston, so we don’t have any data on how he matches up with some of the bench bigs available to Joe Mazzulla.
Sims averaged 13 minutes per game when he saw the floor, guarding an average of 2.1 shots per night. Despite his limited contributions on the glass, the Knicks went 30-15 in his games.
Unlike Robinson, who is a traditional drop big, Sims could give the Knicks’ second unit some defensive fluidity. He’s mobile enough to guard up on the perimeter, has good lateral quickness, can stay in front of his man, and has better-than-expected timing in shot contests.
Take a look at the above clip, where Sims starts by defending Myles Turner, who is in the delay. Sims doesn't bite on the keep action but takes a step off the perimeter to give himself time and space, giving himself an extra beat to react as the play unfolds. As Indiana moves the rock around the perimeter, Sims switches before going into an up-to-touch coverage on the second side PnR. He splits the roller and ball-handler before timing his shot contest and getting the block.
Here’s another example of Sims guarding up to the perimeter. This time, Nic Claxton looks to test Sims’ ability to stay connected on drives. When the young Knicks big beats him to his spot, Claxton tries to spin off, only to find himself met by Sims’ long wingspan and bouncy shot contest.
However, like most young big men, Sims tends to bite on pump fakes, which can leave him susceptible to leaving his feet — creating easy scoring or passing opportunities while potentially allowing him to fall into foul trouble.
So, what does this mean for the Celtics?
Sims will be a valuable member of the Knicks bench unit. He will provide legitimate rim protection and some reliable PnR defense. However, he can be exploited. He’s still young and has a slight frame. Someone like Neemias Queta should have no problem dislodging him or owning him on the interior around the rim. Of course, Neemy would need to showcase an aggression we’ve yet to see from him if he wanted to dominate that matchup.
Nevertheless, I think Neemy is a solid counter to what Sims provides on defense. Neemy is mobile, athletic, tall, strong and has an endless motor. He’s a solid rim-runner who can bully around the post while controlling the offensive boards.
I do wonder how much playing time Al Horford gets, considering he only played in one of the preseason games. Perhaps he splits some bench minutes with Neemy, allowing Kornet to run with the starters. Horford would be a nightmare matchup for Sims due to his three-level scoring, ability to control the angles, willingness to play through his defender and overall basketball IQ.
If Horford starts, Kornet could potentially be the one who tests Sims ability to contain the short-roll and call out passing lanes for his teammates to close down.
No matter what, there’s a reason Sims wasn’t part of the Knicks rotation during the five games they played against Boston last season. Considering Thibodeau doesn’t have a trusted third big to fall back on, and the team currently has just 12 players on its roster — 15 if you include their three two-way guys.
For what it’s worth, Ariel Hukporti could also see some playing time, but from where I’m sitting, Thibodeau may be better suited to going small if Sims struggles…Maybe Josh Hart at the five? Who knows, but it could get funky.
My project approach to New York’s current issues would be as follows
Kornet — Starter.
Horford — First big off-bench, limited minutes
Neemy — Fill the minutes Horford is giving up as he works back to fitness
Tillman - will likely play more 4 than 5, which is why I haven’t factored him in here.
Mazzulla will likely experiment in the opening game anyway, so showing Sims and the rest of the Knicks’ defense multiple different looks would be a smart move.
How do you think the Celtics will approach the game, and do you see Achiuwa’s absence as a potential advantage for the Celtics? Let me know in the comments.
The Mailbag - Part 1
Yesterday, I sent a note out via the Substack app asking for mailbag questions…If you don’t have the app, I recommend downloading it, as I will be ramping up the community chats during the season, along with regular mailbag requests.
A few questions were sent in, so I’m going to answer two today and cover the rest tomorrow…
Basile Geneve asks:
What do you think the most substantial changes in the Celtics' offense will be, aside from who is playing at center? They had a couple of base actions they initiated from a lot in the regular season and then moved to Tatum/Brown directly driving more in the playoffs. Do you think the regular season-based actions will change a lot?
My take:
I don’t think we see too much change. Rather than implementing new actions, I would assume Mazzulla has some additional concepts he will want his team to deploy along with some new variations. In truth, we saw some plays during the preseason that we didn’t see much of last season and some actions that became common toward the end of the season.
For example, I recently wrote about the Celtics leaning into a play I dub “Flex Gut Exit,” which is a derivative from Spanoulis. We saw Boston increasingly lean into this as the season wore on last year. I would expect that to become a staple of their approach this season, primarily as an entry rather than a scoring play.
An example of something new, that we haven’t seen much of during Mazzulla’s two years on the sidelines is the “Elbow Split” Baseline Out Of Bounds action they ran against the Denver Nuggets in their second meeting of the preseason.
I always find these questions super fun but also quite difficult at this time of year. I’m the first to admit that its all guesswork on my part, as we don’t have anything to lean on or draw conclusions from…In terms of the biggest change, I’m not expecting much to be different. I think they run a similar defense and offense; it’s the variations and slight wrinkles that will stand out the most — for me, at least.
What thoughts have you got about what could be different? I’m curious…It could be a fun conversation!
MDR asks:
What is your must-consume regular content and your best timeless content…. Hoops only.
My take:
I went back and asked if this was about stuff I consume, which MDR confirmed it was.
I like coaching content a lot. I find them to be great learning resources, and I’m fascinated by the mindset and different approaches coaches take to develop players or get the best out of a team. For that kind of stuff, my must-haves are:
They have a podcast and a newsletter (I’m on the free plan.)
Brad Stevens has been on their pod a couple of times. Always worth a listen
I’m a big fan of
- is a can’t miss
This one isn’t so much of a coaching resource, but she’s one of the best basketball minds in the public domain…And that’s Caitlin Cooper, primarily her “Basketball, She Wrote” on Patreon.
I also enjoy:
“The Dunker Spot” podcast with Nekias Duncan and Steve Jones.
All The Smoke
And I did LOVE the Lowe Post…Waiting to see what Zach Lowe does next.
As you’ve probably noticed, no Celtics content is listed here. The reason is simple: I want my thoughts, opinions and takes to be my own. If I’m listening to or watching other people’s shows, I find myself looking into their topics and exploring their thoughts. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I find my most authentic analysis comes from abstaining from other Celtics content where possible. I do think there is a significant amount of talented people covering the team, though, so I tend to read a lot of stuff after I’ve put my thoughts out there…
Still, if I do tune into another Celtics podcast, it’s Locked On Celtics. John Karalis has always been so generous with his time whenever I’ve had questions or needed advice. My guy Keith Smith and his NBA Front Office show for league-wide stuff.
In terms of evergreen content…Dude, I’m a basketball movies guy. That’s my evergreen stuff. I’ve watched Coach Carter like a million times. Above the Rim, He Got Game, Hoosiers, White Men Can’t Jump 1 & 2, Space Jam — you name it, they live in my rotation, week after week, month after month, year after year, decade after decade.
What content do you all enjoy consuming? Am I missing out on some awesome stuff?
That’s it for today folks. I’ll be back tomorrow with some thoughts ahead of the Knicks game and to answer the remaining questions from the mailbag!
Knicks are low on wing depth as well as center.
"What content do you all enjoy consuming?" Game 5 2024 NBA Finals - again and again and again.