Game day notes, NBA news, and some Sunday musings
A little bit of everything to end the week.
It’s 10 am UK time. I’m sitting at my desk, overthinking what to write about. It often feels like we’re rehashing the same topics at this point in the season. Trying to find a new angle, or have a fresh take.
I usually let my interests guide me. Today, that was Xavier Tillman. I wrote out four different intro’s to that piece. None of them stuck. Rather than force it, i’m going to let that percolate for a day or two, and then when it comes naturally, i’ll run with it. So, with that idea on the back burner, I went back to the drawing board.
It’s sunny out. In England, that’s rare for this time of year. Usually, I’m looking out at a wall of grey clouds and a neverending downpouring of rain. When we get that rare reprieve and the sun makes an appearance, my mind often buzzes with ideas of what to do.
I could hit up the park, shoot some hoops. Maybe I can take Henry (my 1-year-old English Bulldog) to somewhere new and we can explore. I could take the wife and kid to an outdoor shopping center. Or, I could uncover the grill and work on some barbeque. The options often feel endless. And that’s kind of like this newsletter. I’m my editor here. I choose the topics, and I run with them. That leads to a lot of noise and buzz from the internal narrator.
So, I thought f— it. If my mind is flitting between options, that’s how today’s newsletter is going to be structured, too. Let’s dive in.
Game day Notes
☘️ Kristaps Porzingis is questionable for tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors.
The Celtics have significant depth at the center position. Al Horford will undoubtedly move into the starting lineup if Porzingis sits out. One of Tillman or Luke Kornet will get elevated into Horford’s spot as the first big off the bench, and the other will operate as the third center in the rotation.
If the Celtics rule Porzingis out, his presence will be missed. I mean, there’s a reason why so many view him as the Celtics X-Factor. His pick-and-pop game on the perimeter has unlocked Boston’s spacing. While his post-scoring and post-creation has added a new dimension to the Celtics offensive approach.
Still, it’s better to be cautious. For all we know, Porzingis is fine and simply being rested. Whatever the reasons are, the Celtics have a comfortable lead at the top of the East; they’ve earned the chance to rest guys when needed.
☘️Steph Curry and Brandin Podziemski are questionable. Andrew Wiggins is out
Steve Kerr’s team has been enjoying a resurgence in recent weeks. Moving Draymond Green into the middle of the floor and flanking him with Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins unlocked the roster’s versatility on both ends. However, Curry is still the key cog that makes everything tick. If he doesn’t play against the Celtics, it will be a major boost in Mazzulla’s team’s hunt for their 11th straight win.
According to recent reporting, Wiggins’ absence is due to a family issue. I’m not one to speculate or report on private matters; I find it kinda trashy. So, all I’m going to say is: some things are bigger than basketball. Prayers go out to Wiggins and his family in whatever they’re going through.
If Kerr keeps Klay Thompson coming off the bench, he’s going to be a real handful. Since having his role changed, Thompson has emerged as a legitimate scoring threat again, averaging 19.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2 assists. on 44.1% shooting from the perimeter. It’s worth noting that Thompson was moved back into a starting role against the Toronto Raptors. So, his spot on the bench appears to be fluid.
Golden State are aiming to crack the top-six in the West. They need every win they can muster. I doubt Curry will sit out unless it’s absolutely necessary.
☘️A lack of rim protection could see the Celtics getting downhill
We saw it against the Philadelphia 76ers last week. To be honest, we’ve been seeing it since before the All-Star break. The Celtics have become more fluid with their offensive approach. When teams have legitimate rim protection, we see more emphasis at the three-point line. It pulls bigs away from the rim and opens things up later in the game. However, when no legitimate rim protector is on the floor, the Celtics relentlessly attack the paint.
Even writing this out, it sounds logical. It’s a “well duh” kind of statement. Yet, in recent years, the fluidity in Boston’s offensive approach hasn’t always been there. That’s why there have been so many discussions surrounding the heavy emphasis on perimeter shots and why Mazzulla came under so much scrutiny last season and to begin this campaign.
According to Cleaning The Glass, the Warriors struggle to defend the rim, allowing 67.1% shooting within four feet of the basket. That puts them in the 21st percentile for rim defense. Synergy has them in the 20th percentile when guarding layups. Boston boasts multiple slashers and guards that can snake their dribbles via screening actions. They have all the tools necessary to get downhill with consistency and force. Given the Warriors’ struggles with protecting the cup, the Celtics could often look to pound the rock home.
To further strengthen the idea of the Celtics attacking the rim, the Warriors are among the better teams when guarding the perimeter. They’re holding teams to 1.06 points per possession, which equates to 35.5% shooting, placing Golden State fourth in the league for perimeter defense. I’m a big believer in taking the path of least resistance; for the Celtics, that would be the rim.
☘️The Warriors excel in two main areas: at the rim and on the perimeter.
Golden State is 6th in the NBA for rim scoring, converting at a 69.9% clip. They’re also sixth in the NBA for three-point percentage, dropping 38.5% of their looks.
The Celtics are fifth in three-point defense, limiting teams to 35.8% shooting. They’re first in corner three defense, holioding teams to 34.9%. And they’re third in defending the rim, limiting teams to 62.5% shooting — all per Cleaning The Glass.
So, unlike the Celtics, Golden State isn’t coming into this game with a clear-cut advantage in their scoring profile. They will find elite-level resistance everywhere they like to generate their offense. If Curry isn’t part of that rotation, the Warriors will have a difficult time breaking down Boston’s half-court offense — even with Chris Paul running the show as the lead ball-handler.
Some Eastern Conference talking points
🏀 The New York Knicks continue to improve their roster. They added OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks between December and February. Now, they’re adding Shake Milton to their rotation. I’m not expecting Milton to be a difference-maker. He does, however, provide additional scoring and is another body in Tom Thibodeau’s wing rotation. Right now, I have the Knicks, assuming they get healthy, as a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference. The fact they keep adding to their roster, and continue to build a championship-level team, can’t be ignored. This was a good depth addition for them.
I continue to see discussion surrounding Jalen Brunson’s lack of size as a reason New York can’t contend. We as Celtics fans know all-too-well that isn’t the case. After all, it was 5-foot-9 Isaiah Thomas who set this team on its current trajectory. We were all confident he could be a championship-level guard. So, the same rules apply to Brunson — he’s been the Knicks’ most important pickup in over a decade.
🏀 The Milwaukee Bucks have gone 5-0 since returning from the All-Star break. That includes an impressive win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. However, their current run feels like fool’s gold. Yes, they beat Chris Finch’s Western Conference-leading team. But, besides that, they’ve beat the Charlotte Hornets twice, and the Chicago Bulls. That’s not exactly the sternest of tests. Fortunately, we’re going to get a better look at whether the Bucks have turned a corner in their upcoming stretch of games.
The Bucks will face the LA Clippers (twice,) Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings between now and the middle of March. How they fare against the increased competition level will give us a clearer picture of their progress under Doc Rivers and whether they’re emerging as a legitimate playoff contender or pretender.
🏀 The Cleveland Cavalier’s rapid surge up the Eastern Conference standings has seen them being discussed as dark horse candidates to make the conference finals. Yet, since returning from the All-Star break, they’ve been a .500 team. Wins over the Washington Wizards, Dallas Mavericks, and Detroit Pistons have been offset by losses to the Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers and Chicago Bulls.
Playoff success is the best way for Cleveland to pitch Donovan Mitchell on remaining with the franchise beyond his current contract. His future continues to be a distraction for the Cavaliers, as he continually avoids committing to the team or discussing his intentions. With Mitchell, the Cavaliers are moving in the right direction. They have talent in every position. Other high-level players could also be enticed to join and team up with Mitchell if they knew he was sticking around. For me, I’m not fully sold on the Cavaliers’ upside as a deep playoff team — maybe that will change as I start tuning into more of their games to get a better sense of where they’re at. They haven’t been a team I’ve been watching with consistency this season.
Sunday musing’s
Just one talking point today. Gilbert Arenas’ take on Europeans in the NBA is laughable. For those of you that have been fortunate enough to miss out on seeing the clip, or the quotes from the clip, here’s what he had to say.
“Get rid of all Europeans,” Arenas said. “You go to college to learn defense. What college do Europeans go to? They have no athleticism. They have no speed, no jumping ability. They are a liability on defense. They are 150 Euros in the league today… name the top defenders. None! Just Rudy [Gobert] and the Greek Freak. Other than that, they are offensive players. They aren’t defensive players, right?”
But wait. There’s more.
“The NBA took away aggression to open up to the EuroLeague,” Arenas said. “When they first started to get here, it was too rough for them. They didn’t make it. They softened the rules. They didn’t soften the rules for Americans. They softened the rules to open up internationally. So when they are saying that Euros are going to run the league in the next five years… why do you think that? More threes, more passing. This isn’t our league, this is the Euro style.”
First, it’s not like European players haven’t created a track record of being defensively sound. Marcin Gortat was a physically imposing big man that played some respectable defense, he’s Polish. Marc Gasol is a former Defensive Player of the Year winner, and he’s Spanish. Giannis is an elite defender. Rudy Gobert is a multi-time DPOY winner. Kristaps Porzingis is one of the better-shot deterrents in the NBA. In his prime, Nic Batum was a solid wing defender, too. Boris Diaw. Tony Parker. The list can go on.
Second, let’s not act like American players aren’t also primarily geared toward offense. Generational defensive talents are rare. Legitimate two-way wings are rare, even if we speak about them like they’re easily found around the league. The best offensive players are the most prominent names around the league. That’s how the media sells the game. That’s how the NBA continues to grow its brand. Offense sells. Highlights draw new eyeballs and bring in new fans. It has nothing to do with European talent and everything to do with how the modern NBA markets itself as an entertainment industry. There’s nothing wrong with that. Which is why I don’t get Arenas’ rhetoric here.
Anyway, here’s the full video if you want to check it out.
Pledges
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Previewing the Warriors game
If you’re looking for more pre-game coverage, my co-hosts Will Weir and Greg Maneikis recorded a podcast with Sam Edfandiari of The Light Years Podcast…You can check it out here.
Watching the game
I’ll be joining Will & Greg to watch the game tonight in a Playback room. So, if you’re a fan of my X’s and O’s content and want to watch a game live with me — which I don’t get a chance to do very often due to the time difference — come and join us! We won’t have the link until the room is live, but if you hop on to the Discord Channel, you will get a notification once we share it!
I’m excited to do this because it will be something different, and that’s always fun!
Finally, don’t forget to share!
I’m a big believer in word of mouth. As someone active across social media, I see people promoting their own content all the time, as I’m sure you do, too. Yet, I always take notice when I see people promoting someone else’s work. That’s a huge stamp of approval, and it drastically increases the chances of me checking out that person’s work.
So, if you like a post or a segment from within the post, please consider sharing. X, IG, FB, BlueSky, Threads, Reddit, Sons of Sam Horn, Mastodon — wherever you are active, shares are integral, and they can have a huge impact.