Has First Quarter Dominance Shifted for the Celtics
Jaylen Brown has been Boston's king of the first quarter this season. Has that started to change, or are there other factors to consider?
The Super Bowl is over. All-Star weekend is rapidly approaching. That means there’s a break in the schedule coming up. Everyone needs it. The NBA calendar comes at your fast once the season is underway. It feels like when you finally lift your head, two-thirds of the season has passed you by.
It’s ok to be happy about the break. I know I am. It gives you time to catch up on games you haven’t gotten around to. You can dive into some numbers a little deeper. Or, you can finally watch that Netflix series, play that game, or take that hiking trip that you’ve been putting off since October. FWIW, I just finished Griselda; it was pretty solid.
I’m also excited for the when the season gets back underway. That’s when teams and players begin ramping up their production. When things are taken up a notch, and we start sprinting toward the playoffs. It’s a fun time.
We’re not at the All-Star break just yet, though. The Celtics have two more games before that happens. Both of which are against the Brooklyn Nets. Boston should win both of those games. The question is whether they can stay focused with the All-Star break on the horizon. We should have the answer soon enough.
That leads me to today. Throughout the month of February, it feels like we’ve seen Jaylen Brown’s role in the first quarter change. For most of the season, he’s been the primary offensive option in the opening 12 minutes. He’s thrived in that role. He’s been that guy.
Since the start of February, it feels like Kristaps Porzingis has taken the reigns in the opening exchanges. So, today, I wanted to take a deeper look at whether that is the case or whether it’s just the Celtics being savvy with how they attack other teams based on lineups, mismatches, and creating advantages to exploit later in the contest.
Brown has thrived as the featured first-quarter scorer
In the 49 games Brown has played this season, he’s averaged 7.2 points in the first quarter, shooting 52.4% on his field-goal attempts and 37.5% from the perimeter. One of the reasons Brown has been so impressive during the opening stretch of games is because of his willingness to pressure the rim and lean into his explosive athleticism.
The spacing within Boston’s starting five is ideal for Brown’s slashing ability. The above clip shows him attacking via a “stampede cut,” which is an off-ball cut where a player is already cutting toward the rim when they catch the ball.
There’s too much talent within that starting unit. You can’t help off anyone on the perimeter. That often leaves Brown in 1-on-1 matchups as he looks to attack the cup.
For Brown, being 1-on-1 when getting downhill is ideal. He’s strong enough to hold off most defenders. His first step is explosive enough to trap guys on his hip. And his improved handle allows him to navigate the lane en route to the restricted area.
Having a player who can set the tone in the opening stretch of a game is a luxury. Especially when that player is an All-Star-level guy who can scale their production throughout a game. Furthermore, this role has empowered Brown. He’s hunting his shots more. He’s navigating to his spots on the floor, especially in the mid-range. He’s focusing on playing to his strengths.
Being a featured scorer within the Celtics system has worked wonders for Brown — especially in terms of his first-quarter scoring. What’s interesting, though, is how that role appears to have slightly changed this month.
Kristaps Porzingis has been leading the way as Boston’s first-quarter threat in February, averaging 7.4 points in 10 minutes of playing time. Brown is second with 6.8 points, with Tatum third with 6 points. Still, it’s not that Joe Mazzulla has changed Brown’s role — even though it does feel like that during stretches — it’s that Porzingis has enjoyed some favorable matchups to begin the month.
First us was the Los Angeles Lakers, who were without Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Then came a Memphis Grizzlies team lacking any legitimate talent due to their widespread injury issues. The Atlanta Hawks were up next. However, they didn’t have Clint Capela. A Daniel Gafford-less Washington Wizards became Porzingis’ next victim, followed by the Miami Heat on Sunday.
It just so happens that Boston has faced five teams that are either without their starting center (or a center at all) or have a negative match-up against Porzingis to begin the month. It makes sense, then, that you would play through your versatile 7’2’’ big man. Part of being an elite team is having options and being fluid enough to use those options based on match-ups and advantages.
Why would you want Brown attacking the paint against Miami when you could be playing through Porzingis, forcing Bam Adebayo into some tough spots, and heaping pressure onto Erik Spoelstra to make a change to his defensive system? The same can be said against the Wizards. Yes, Brown could have dominated early in the game. Yet, Porzingis had a clear size and skill advantage. Sometimes, the path of least resistance is the path that makes the most sense.
We could make a similar argument for each of the games listed above.
Look at the height difference. Watch how easily Porzingis shoots over Kyle Kuzma after he takes a dribble to get to his spot. There’s almost no resistance on the shot attempt. Why ask Brown to fight his way to the rim when you have such a clear advantage elsewhere on the floor?
Who are the top first-quarter scorers in the NBA?
Joel Embiid - 11.7 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 9.8 points
Luka Doncic - 9.7 points
Anthony Davis - 8.1 points
Devin Booker - 8.0 points
Donovan Mitchell - 7.8 points
Julius Randle - 7.8 points
Nikola Jokic - 7.5 points
Anthony Edwards - 7.3 points
Giannis - 7.3 points
Jaylen Brown - 7.2 points
Jalen Brunson - 7.2 points
Kevin Durant - 7.1 points
Mikal Bridges - 7.1 points
Desmond Bane - 6.9 points
Things will look different against the Brooklyn Nets
Porzingis isn’t going to have that advantage against the Nets. Nic Claxton is athletic, explosive, and doesn’t mind getting physical. It’s Porzingis’ first tough match-up of the month. With that in mind, I would expect things to revert back to Brown during the opening quarter, with Tatum, Holiday, and White all featuring throughout the night.
There’s also another reason why things should look different over the next two games. Mazzulla has been consistent with his rest protocols for his two primary big men. Porzingis has been sitting out the first night of back-to-backs, while Al Horford has been on the bench for the second night.
So, it should come as no surprise to see Porzingis’ name on the injury report this morning.
Yes, Porzingis hurt his back against the Heat. He had to leave the court while the medical staff assessed him. He did return to the game, however. So, he could be genuinely dealing with some soreness and discomfort. Either way, his likely absence tracks with what we’ve seen from the Celtics this season. And that opens the door for Brown to re-assert himself as the team’s featured scorer in the opening stage of the game.
You may be asking yourself why Brown being used as the primary scoring option to open games matters. After all, there are three other quarters to play, and the Celtics have an abundance of scoring talent throughout the roster. It would be a fair question.
For me, it’s not so much about Brown racking up points or boosting the Celtics on the scoreboard. It’s about featuring him as a star of the team, irrespective of the other talent around him. It’s about showcasing his elite skillset while giving him reps to develop his playmaking and ball-handling. It’s not a coincidence that this season is Brown’s most complete year in terms of all-around performances.
Mazzulla has found a way to empower one of his stars. Brown is repaying that empowerment with exceptional effort on the defensive end and a relentless approach to scoring the ball. Everybody’s winning. Still, you’ve got to tip your cap to the Celtics’ willingness to alter their formulae when advantages present themself. Which is what we’ve seen them do over the past two weeks.
Sticking with Brown for a moment
Late in the fourth quarter, as the Celtics were fighting to keep the Heat at arm’s length, Brown found himself getting tangled up with Duncan Robinson. What followed has since split the fanbase.
There are two camps in this discussion. The first camp sees Robinson’s decision to tangle up with Brown as an egregious act. It’s not a basketball move. Whatever Brown does to free himself from Robinson is fair game because if you slide your arm behind a player’s back, you’re putting yourself at risk.
The second camp believes that Brown put a little too much sauce behind his dismissal of Robinson’s arm and is lucky he didn’t break it in the process.
“Miami’s known for being physical,” Brown told the media after the game. “Miami’s known for getting away with that stuff, kind of mucking up the game. At the end of the day, you gotta protect and own your space. I felt like Duncan Robinson knew what he was doing there. I bet you he won’t do it again.”
Eddie House has also defended Brown’s actions.
“I don’t think Jaylen is a dirty player,” House said. “Things are happening, and you feel a certain way. You feel like teams have been getting away with a little extra at times. Then, when you do yours, it might look dirty, but at the same time, you gotta stand your ground.”
I bring this up because the online discourse surrounding this play appears to have split the fanbase. So, I’m curious where everyone sits with this. Leave a comment and let me know your thoughts; just please keep your interactions with each other respectful.
The launch of a mini-series
Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, we’re entering into buy-out season. We’ve already seen the Lakers add Spencer Dinwiddie and the Oklahoma City Thunder shore up their center rotation with Bismack Biyombo.
It’s fair to expect Brad Stevens to get involved, too. He made a point of keeping a roster spot open during both of his recent trades. First, he sent out Lamar Stevens when adding Xavier Tillman. Then, out went Dalano Banton following the addition of Jaden Springer.
Boston is slightly limited with the players they can target. As a second-apron team, they’re restricted to signing players who were earning under the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception before being bought out — so Dinwiddie was never an option for the C’s. Still, there are some genuine options to upgrade the back end of the roster.
So, over the next week or two, the Green With Envy Podcast will be doing some 10-15 minute dives into potential players Boston could target on the buy-out market. The episodes will be designed around how that specific player could fit with the C’s and why their arrival would or wouldn’t work. We kicked this off with a look at Danilo Gallinari yesterday.
Our first post on Substack
Over the weekend, I made a snap decision. I’d been building this newsletter on the Ghost CMS. However, it was getting more and more expensive, and I wasn’t ready to turn on a paywall. So, despite opening up the “tip jar” earlier in the day, I decided it was best to migrate over to Substack.
I like it here. There are some awesome community features that I’ll be taking advantage of moving forward. And the writing software is fun and easy to use. Now, I can focus on building this thing up and coming up with new ideas for segments and things to explore.
Take today, for example. First-quarter scoring felt like a random thing to explore, especially when Brown has only seen his role reduce for a couple of games. I thought it would be fun, though. So, here we are. As I said over the weekend, I’m still trying to figure out how game coverage could look so that it doesn’t cross over with the 10 Takeaways I do for CelticsBlog. Happy to take your ideas on board if you have any! We could even try it out tomorrow!
For now, though! Thanks for rocking with me! And enjoy the game tonight!