It's time to answer a Celtics Mailbag

Answering your questions.

The Boston Celtics are out West. They face the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks over the next week. For a team that has been stuttering over the last month and a half, this road swing could be a blessing in disguise or a reason for the magnifying glass to get a little closer.

I didn’t cover either of the games over the weekend. A sickness bug swept through my house like Jayson Tatum's euro-stepping to the lane. It cut through us like butter. I’m much better today, though.

Yesterday, I sent out a little note asking for mailbag questions and potential observations or frustrations that anyone wanted to share. So, let’s dive right in!

Rob Version 1.0 asked: Is it time to bring Jrue off the bench and start PP?

My Response: I get the point here. Pritchard has been having a career year in terms of scoring the ball and has shown legitimate improvements in becoming a three-level threat. On the flip side, Holiday has struggled in recent weeks, with some of those struggles bleeding into his defensive production. 

However, I would caution against making that change.

The Celtics need a scoring punch off the bench. Holiday, for all of his upside and two-way talent, is more of a connector than a sparkplug. Joe Mazzulla also heavily leans on him when looking to cross-match on defense, which I hope will increase in frequency.

I would also be concerned that Pritchard’s opportunities would decrease if he was part of the starting lineup. Of the 2260 possessions he’s played in this season, only 439 of them have been with both Tatum and Brown on the floor. The rest of the time, Pritchard is sharing the court with one of the Jays, allowing him additional freedom to attack defenses with an aggressive mindset.

Putting Pritchard with both Tatum and Brown would take the ball out of his hands more. It would put pressure on him to move the rock quickly, and his self-creation would suffer.

Furthermore, the Celtics defense tends to regress when this trio share the floor — regardless of what big is tasked with protecting the rim. With Pritchard, Brown and Tatum sharing the court, the Celtics are allowed 115 points per 100 possessions. Swap Pritchard for Holiday, and that number drops to 106.6 per 100. Yet if we keep the 6MOY front-runner on the floor with a flurry of rotations, the Celtics are at 112.9.

What I’m getting at is that not only would the Celtics take a step backward defensively, but putting Pritchard in the starting five would likely limit his effectiveness on the offensive end.

Rob Version 1.0 followed up with: Once Drew clears concussion protocols, should we start playing him over Sam?

I’d caution against this, too. However, I do see your reasoning. Hauser’s struggles have been one of the biggest blows to the team this season. Hopefully, whatever is messing with his back will be sorted out before the playoffs.

Still, swapping out Hauser — a proven commodity on both sides of the floor — for Drew Peterson, who has rarely faced high-end rotation guys, is a risky dice roll. For all of Hauser’s struggles on offense, I thought Saturday was one of his best showings in terms of off-ball defense.

I get that Hauser’s biggest contribution to the roster is his floor spacing and being one of the best perimeter shooters in the NBA. And I also get that we haven’t seen his full value this season. However, I’m more comfortable running with the guy who has proven himself against elite opposition than I am with Peterson, who has shone in specific moments with minimal scope in terms of role.

Daniel Pak asked: I’ve noticed Jrue has had a significant drop off in production since last year. Are there stats to back this up, or am I being too hard on him?

My Response: Let’s start with some basics.

Holiday is down across the board in terms of box score stats from last season to this season. He’s shooting worse, he’s rebounding less, and he’s dishing out fewer assists. What’s worse, is he’s taking less of the shots that made him such a threat — such as from the corner, where he converted at a 60% clip last season.

What’s interesting is that Holiday is taking more shots on the perimeter this season — up by 8% and more around the rim — up by 4%, but that increased frequency isn’t paying off as much as we would like, except for around the rim, where he’s knocking down a career-best 72% of his attempts.

Focusing on the lineup data reveals an interesting picture. With Holiday on the floor, the Celtics outscored opponents by +6.5 points per 100 possessions, with 2264 possessions as a sample size. They also held teams to 109.6 points per 100 on defense, ranking them in the 83rd percentile of all NBA lineups.

Take Holiday out of those lineups, and the Celtics spike on offense. They’re outscoring teams by +13.3 points per 100, averaging 126.1 points per 100, although the defense takes a slight tumble to 112.8. There are 1702 possessions without Holiday, so we’re still looking at a significant sample.

Interestingly, as somewhat of a call-back to Rob’s question, almost all of those lineups have Pritchard in them — but rarely have both of the Jay’s.

To get a clear picture of whether Holiday has regressed, let’s look at last season’s lineup data with and without him. With him, Celtics outscored teams by +9 and held them to 112.9 per 100. Without him, everything spiked again, outscoring teams by +14.7 and holding them to 110.6 points per 100 on defense.

So, if the numbers are telling us the Celtics are better with Holiday off the court, what does that mean?

In truth, not much.

Lineup data has wild variances, most notably in who is and isn’t on the floor. More importantly, the numbers don’t account for the experience and connectivity a holiday brings.

Yes, Holiday has regressed in efficiency and made some mistakes in recent games. But his basketball IQ, positional versatility and championship experience have all been core to his contributions to the team. I get that he’s having a bit of a ‘down year,’ but so are a bunch of other guys.

To answer your question, though, yes, he’s regressed a little, and yes, there are stats to back it up. However, when we compare those stats to last season, not much has changed. In my opinion, the Celtics are better with Holiday on the court, but maybe he needs a role change to galvanize him for the second half of the season.

Jennifer Gladhill shared her frustration: Of course I’m frustrated with the amount of losses but I’m trying to stay optimistic. I’m sure every team out there watched tapes and tried to find the secret to beating the world champions. They all came prepared to win. I feel like our starting five are not as cohesive as they were last season, I’m guessing due to all the missed games by Porzingis and the others due to illnesses. I’m sick of everyone trashing them and Mazulla because if the losses, as long as we make the playoffs, I don’t think there is a team that could best us in seven.

My response: Hey Jennifer, nice to see a new name jumping into these mailbags!

I totally understand the frustration, and I genuinely think most of us are feeling that way. I agree that other teams spent the summer doing their due diligence and came into the season with new ideas on how to slow the Celtics down and disrupt their offense.

I think Mazzulla is being unfairly criticized right now. The Celtics have not been as fluid in their actions as they were last season, and the overall playbook appears to have regressed in scope and execution. Billy Calabrese and I spoke about this on a YouTube video yesterday.

I do agree that Porzingis’ delayed start to the season, coupled with Hauser’s struggles and Holiday missing games, have all played a part. And I do hope they figure things out in time for the playoffs. However, I’m a big believer in winning habits, and those are formed during the regular season. If the Celtics keep on stuttering and their offensive playbook doesn’t evolve, the postseason will likely be harder than we’re expecting.

Still, I hope that our frustration levels will return to a realistic level in the coming weeks.