Monday Mailbag

Plus some thoughts ahead of the Portland game and a quick look at two plays that Celtics fans seemed to enjoy.

It’s Monday! So, you know what that means! Another Monday mailbag.

This will be a featured segment each week, available to both paid and free subscribers. I like doing these to start the week for two reasons.

1. It allows me to interact with everyone.

2. It gives me ideas for posts later in the week.

So, every Sunday, I will post a thread on the Substack app, where I will be taking all your questions. If you don’t have the app, get it. It’s free and has some cool features. I also want to start posting there more frequently, so having a good-sized audience to interact with would be fun.

Outside of the mailbag, we’re also going to look at the Trail Blazers and the two plays the Celtics ran against the Phoenix Suns that everybody talked about yesterday. Those plays were very similar but had some core differences.

Finally, just a reminder that paid subscriptions are now turned on. If you want regular posts sent directly to your inbox for the price of a coffee each month, consider upgrading from a free plan. And, if you’re not already subscribed, why not test out the newsletter with a free subscription to see how you like it?

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The Mailbag

Rui Monteiro Mascarenhas: I’m curious on your thoughts on the double big with Al and Al jr 😏(Tilllman) and how Luke keeps on getting great minutes, when he is up. Who is the 3rd big? Can we anticipate that for the next games, based on matchups?

My take: I’ve been pondering this question since Brad Stevens added Tillman to the rotation ahead of the trade deadline. Both he and Luke Kornet are capable of being the third big man in the rotation. However, their skill sets are totally different. Right now, I think that Kornet has an advantage. He knows the system. He’s proven he can produce for the team off the bench. He fits the mold in terms of size and allows the Celtics to stick with a drop-big man protecting the rim when looking to contain the PnR.

Kornet is valuable on the defensive end when the matchups work in his favor. He can move his feet well, does a solid job of containing ball-handlers and rolling bigs, and consistently finds himself in a good position to contest a shot or get his body into the paint. On offense, he’s a reliable screener, provides vertical spacing in the dunker spot, is good at timing his rolls and mirroring the ball-handler, and has great positional awareness, knowing when to short actions, when to clear out, and when to duck in to provide a passing lane or open up a drive.

Tillman, on the other hand, brings physicality and positional versatility. Unlike Kornet, you feel comfortable watching Tillman operate in a switch-everything system. He’s reliable when defending the perimeter and can bang with bigger, stronger dudes in the post. He fills a void in the rotation that had been a concern whenever Boston faced one of the more physical teams in the league. On offense, Tillman provides an interior presence and is a reliable screener and roll guy. He will need to improve his perimeter game if he wants to stick in the rotation down the stretch, though, as the Celtics’ offensive system is predominately based on the elite spacing they have available.

With all this being said, I expect Mazzulla to continue to go with a matchup-based decision between Kornet and Tillman. The beauty of having both bigs on the bench is that it allows the Celtics to construct their center rotation based on their opponent’s strengths. It also means that Kornet and Tillman are pushing each other to be their best version as they look to secure additional minutes heading into the playoffs.

Susan Murphy: Now that Queta is available, I'd like to see him get more minutes. What do you think Adam? He definitely needs to polish up his inside shot ... especially the hook, but I think he's a diamond in the rough. To be honest, I kept dozing during last night's game, so didn't see if he got any time last night.

My take: I enjoyed Neemias Queta’s minutes, production and development earlier in the season. However, with the addition of Tillman, I don’t envision us seeing much more of him unless there’s a prolonged injury to one of the bench bigs. That’s always the risk when you’re a developmental talent who joins a contending team on a two-way contract. Right now, Queta is behind all the main roster's bigs.

Mazzulla’s remit is to get this team ready for a championship run. He will want to give Kornet and Tillman more minutes. It doesn’t make much sense to continue developing Queta at this point. He isn’t eligible for the postseason (due to being on a two-way), which removes any urgency to get him up to speed over the remaining stretch.

The only way I can see this changing, in terms of consistent minutes, is if Stevens converts Queta’s deal and uses him to fill the final roster spot. Personally, I’m against doing that. It doesn’t make sense to have five bigs on the roster. Other areas could use some emergency depth on the deep end of the bench.

All we can likely hope for at this point is that we get some Queta minutes during garbage time and toward the end of the season when players start to sit out games for additional rest.

Tim Yoon: If you were Mazzulla, what would be your approach for the remainder of the season given the easier strength of schedule?

My take: The Celtics have 19 games left. At this point, the Celtics know who they are as a team, the systems and principles they like to execute on both sides of the floor, and what their playoff rotation is going to look like, assuming everyone is healthy. Of course, Mazzulla will have some aces up his sleeve that we haven’t seen yet — or so we would hope.

With that in mind, I think the next 19 games is about tightening things up. That means reiterating through some of the sets we’ve seen this season, going back to some defensive strategies that haven’t been a core part of their approach since the All-Star break — such as the 2-1-2 spy zone defense — and a one-through-five switching system. Treat the final stretch as a kind of refresher course in certain approaches that may be needed on the fly during a playoff series.

In terms of rotations, I think it’s smart to keep them tight and playoff-ready. It’s too early to start thinking about resting guys. That, for me, comes during the final week of the season. I wouldn’t mind seeing another stretch of experimentation, though. Try some different combinations. See how different bench rotations work. Toy with minutes distribution. Whatever it takes to be sure this team and the coaching staff are entering the postseason with as much data as possible.

Overall, though. I think the hard work has been done. The foundations have been laid. And the winning habits we often hear about are already set. The next 19 games are essentially the cooldown. It’s the light stretching and gentle cardio at the end of a rigorous gym session. Or, perhaps it’s the breather after a tough warmup before a monster session gets underway. The concept stays the same whichever way you look at it: the next few weeks are the prelude. Stay healthy. Execute. Continue to learn.

Tim K: Did the Denver loss tell us anything about the Celtics defense that we didn’t already know?

My take: I don’t think so. Not from that specific game, at least. I think the off-ball defense has been concerning since the Dallas Mavericks game. The Celtics have struggled with containing and picking up off-ball cutters for a few games at this point. It’s how Aaron Gordon found success during the game and how opposing teams are opening up lanes to attack.

The Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams this season. Their communication has been exceptional. You don’t get to their level without communicating and working for each other.

I also think it’s worth contextualizing that this was a game against the reigning champions and the best player in the world. Denver is exceptionally good, well-drilled, and diverse. I never expected the Celtics to shut down the entire Nuggets offense. However, it’s clear there’s some work to do if we’re going to feel confident heading into a potential NBA Finals series against this team. That all begins with accepting there is no matchup for Nikola Jokic and finding ways to shut down his passing lanes and limit the rest of Denver’s offensive weapons.

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A quick glance at the Portland Trail Blazers

The injury report

Portland:

• Malcolm Brogdon - OUT

• Jerami Grant - Questionable

• Shaedon Sharpe - OUT

• Jabari Walker - OUT

• Robert Williams - OUT

Boston

• Jayson Tatum - Questionable

• Kristaps Porzingis - OUT

• Svi Mykhailiuk - OUT

• Jrue Holiday - Questionable

• Jordan Walsh - OUT

• Derrick White - Questionable

For any of you who are concerned regarding Porzingis’ absence, it’s worth remembering that he’s consistently sat out of games on the first night of back-to-backs. He may also have sat out of the Suns game due to rest protocols. Nevertheless, the more cautious the Celtics are with KP, the better.

Watch out for Anfernee Simons

Simons has emerged as the best player on the Trail Blazers roster. He’s shining as a featured scorer in Chauncey Billups’ rotation and is shooting the heck out of the ball. He’s averaging 22.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He’s shooting 43.1% from the field and 38.9% from deep.

Put simply, Simons is a legitimate offensive threat. He missed a significant stretch of games to begin the season but has been back on his ish over the past month or so. In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 21.5 points and dishing out 6.2 assists. Expect to see him shooting a healthy amount of threes, too. He’s averaging 8.5 attempts per game over his last 10 outings.

The majority of Simons’ work comes on the perimeter, with the 3-point shot accounting for 45% of his overall offense. A further 12% comes from the long mid-range, telling me he’s comfortable taking a couple of dribbles to attack close-outs. He’s also willing to attack the floater area, with short mid-range looks adding a further 20% to his offensive output.

The Celtics will need to contain Simons on the perimeter and have helpers ready to dig and pressure his drives. If he looks to beat close-outs, Boston needs to decide whether they want to send help or pressure the shot from behind.

Deandre Ayton is coming into this game off his best performance for the Blazers

Deandre Ayton had arguably his best performance of the season against the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. He dropped 30 points and chipped in with 19 rebounds. That’s the type of production the Blazers were hoping for when they acquired him from the Phoenix Suns during the summer.

With Porzingis out, Ayton will likely be matched up with Horford. He will have a size advantage. However, ageless Al is a master of controlling angles and getting under his bigger opponents. We may also see Tillman get some minutes against Ayton as the Celtics look to limit his impact around the rim and test out how he handles physicality.

On offense, Ayton’s lack of versatility could be a problem for Portland. Horford will primarily operate on the perimeter. The Celtics will deploy a five-out system that forces Ayton to leave the paint and guard around the free-throw line extended. If Billups deploys a deep drop, the Celtics will smoke that coverage in the mid-range. The Trail Blazer may find their rim protection compromised and will need a good help-defense scheme to counter Boston’s cutters and bully drives from the slot.

Still, Ayton is a talented big man. If he replicates his production from the weekend, the Celtics will be facing a good test of how they can adjust and problem-solve on the fly.

Hearing from someone who covers the Blazers

I sat down for a quick preview podcast with Jeremy Brener of SB Nation to get a bit more insight into Portland’s approach and what to expect. You can watch that in the below video.

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Taking a look at two similar but different plays

These two plays were run in the fourth quarter. The similarities and success of having the screener operate as an inverted roll man had Celtics fans praising Mazzulla's inventiveness and Boston's execution.

The first action is “Horns Flare.”

The second is a variation out of Boston’s “Chin Series.”

Both plays are designed around what happens with the screen receiver. In the first play, Derrick White flares off the screen. That allows the switch to occur, giving Brown a mismatch as he rolls to the rim and ensuring he has the physical advantage. He also draws help off the corner, forcing White’s defender to now split the difference and be pulled out of position.

In the second clip, the Celtics run a “Chin action.” Essentially, it’s the same principle as a Horns Flare, but the screen receiver cuts on the non-ball side of the play. When Brown does this, he engages Jrue Holiday’s defender, forcing a stunt and opening up the nail. That allows Holiday to enter into the short roll and forces the Suns’ defense to send the weak-side low-man as a helper. Of course, that then opens up the kick-out to Al Horford, who is now open in the corner and ends in a three.

The beauty of having different actions from the same entry alignment is that it forces the defense into some tough spots. They can’t try and pre-empt what Boston is going to do. Another option we may see between now and the end of the season is having the screen receiver UCLA cut, which would be a ball-side cut after the screen, which could lead to a screen-the-screener action or blow open the coverage by having two scoring threats in the middle.

Mazzulla’s offensive system has been both fun and impressive this year. I liked both of the above actions. I’m especially fond of putting guards and wings in screening sets and having them operate as inverted roll men, as that gives you better processing speed off the catch and is likely a more versatile offensive threat due to their ability to attack off the dribble and make quicker passing reads.

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