One Area of Improvement for each Boston Celtics Player: Bigs
Where can each member of the Celtics big man rotation improve?
It’s time to wrap up the “Areas of Improvement” mini-series. Today, we’re looking at the bigs. Let’s jump right in.
Al Horford | Show more of his passing range
Ok, this one is kind of a cop-out. Horford is nearly 40. I don’t expect him to add new wrinkles to his game. As long as he’s keeping his body in tip-top shape and is being the locker room leader we know him to be, the Celtics are in a great spot.
Still, if I’m pushed for something I want to see from Horford, it’s definitely his passing. He’s been one of the more underrated big men passers throughout his career, despite having a long list of highlight-level dimes to his name throughout his millennia in the league.
I think I’ve pointed out this play at least 25 times since it happened. Usually, when I add it to an article, it pinpoints Horford’s selfless playstyle. However, it’s also a good example of his passing ability and court recognition. He sees actions early. He makes quick decisions. He also has the skill and body control to make passes on the move.
Horford had 168 assists last season. He averaged 25.5 passes per game, with 4.1 of them classed as potential assists.
Horford will likely spend some additional time at the 5 next season as he covers for the recovering Kristaps Porzingis. With him at the top of the perimeter in delay actions, he will have plenty of opportunity to showcase his passing, processing speed and court vision. I’m not saying he needs to become Nikola Jokic or anything, but he has all the tools to be more of a quarterback that what we’ve seen from him in recent years.
Kristaps Porzingis | Health
Is this another cop-out? Probably. BUT, it’s also true. The best improvement Porzingis can make this season is remaining healthy. We’ve all heard the saying, but let me reiterate…Availability is the best ability.
Porzingis will undoubtedly sit one game of back-to-backs — just the same as he did last season — and that’s fine. The bigger concern is his being healthy for the playoffs. There’s no denying that Boston is a better unit when he’s on the floor. His spacing unlocks Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and his size gives the Celtics another dimension on both sides of the court.
Assuming Porzingis is out until late December or early January, he will likely play near 40 regular-season games once you factor in back-to-backs and potential rest days. That should be more than enough to get his back up to fitness and have him ready for the playoffs.
The last thing anyone wants is for Porzingis to miss more time once he returns. That’s why, for me, at least, health is the only improvement worth listing here.
Neemias Queta | Defensive positioning
This is typical for young bigs, especially ones with size or explosivness. Queta is prone to finding himself out of position on defense. Mazzulla primarily tasked him with playing in a deep drop, using his size and length to create a rim deterrent. However, his defensive upside quickly diminished when Neemy was dragged out of the paint or forced to rotate.
Moments like in the above clip were common from Neemy last season. He often questioned his positioning and adjusted, leaving space for the offense to attack. In fairness, the above play is one of his more egregious mistakes from last season, but it does a great job of illustrating my point.
Neemy will undoubtedly continue in his role as a drop defender next season. There will be times when teams look to manipulate his positioning and attack him off the dribble. There will be other times, Neemy reads the floor wrong and drops too deep, leaving too much space for an easy three.
If Neemy can improve his defensive positioning while remaining disciplined when switched onto a ball-handler, his chances of consistent minutes will quickly increase. At the moment, he struggles with guarding second, third and fourth-side actions*1 as the more the ball is swung, the less consistency he has in his positioning and keeping track of the evolutions of a play.
The same can be said for knowing when to drop and when to step up and guard on the perimeter. As you can see in the second clip, Neemy can be hesitant to leave the paint due to his limitations when being forced to change directions. However, improving his confidence and staying in front of his man when back peddling should help his overall defensive upside.
Luke Kornet | Defensive rebounding
For a 7-2 big man, Kornet’s defensive rebounding numbers leave a lot to be desired, averaging just 1.9 (defensive) boards per game for his career and 2.3 last season. According to Cleaning The Glass, Kornet grabbed just 14.3% of available defensive rebounds when on the court last season.
Interestingly, Kornet is one of the better box-out bigs in the NBA. The Basketball Index ranks him in the 90th percentile among bigs for box-out rate but in the 29th percentile for defensive rebound success rate.
I know that Kornet taking more threes will likely be higher on your list of improvements for him, but considering his role on the team2, it’s unlikely we'll see that become a consistent weapon.
As such, asking Kornet to become a more reliable threat on the defensive glass makes sense. It will take some pressure off the rest of the team while allowing the Celtics greater control during games, especially if they’re looking to dictate the tempo.
If Kornet can improve his defensive rebounding numbers and get them closer to 4 per game, he will likely end the season with career-high numbers on the glass — as once you include his work on offense, he could be around 6 boards per night. That should help him in contract negotiations next year — especially if he has two championship rings on his fingers.
Xavier Tillman | Corner three’s
Tillman has never shown much upside in terms of scoring. He’s a career 57.4% free-throw shooter and hit 69.5% from the line during his collegiate career. Free-throw shooting is usually indicative of overall shooting potential, especially in bigs.
However, Tillman already brings solid defense, screening and positioning to the table, so his next step is to add a consistent offensive threat to his game. He doesn’t possess the size to be a consistent issue at the rim and won’t get the green light to develop a middie, so it makes sense he works on his three-ball.
Ideally, Tillman will develop a corner three, as he projects to spend a significant amount of time at the 4, allowing him to camp out as a catch-and-shoot threat if he’s not springing guys free with his screens or DHO tasks.
Tillman went 9-of-24 from the corners during his rookie season but quickly saw his usage as a perimeter threat dwindle. If he wants to become a two-way threat on this Celtics team, his best chance comes with developing a reliable three-point shot. As such, that has to be the improvement we hope to see from him this year.
Final thoughts
That wraps up the “one improvement” mini-series. Let me know what improvement you would like to see from each roster member, and feel free to shoot some ideas over for the next mini-series to help bridge the gap between now and the start of pre-season!
I will also start doing some live chats via the substack app. I’ll send more details once I have a date and time for the first one!
Each time the ball is swung from one side of the court to the other, the count increases. So, if the ball starts on the left wing and gets swung to the right, that’s a second-side action. If it gets swung back to the left, it’s a third-side action. Back to the right? Fourth side…The count continues to rise until the end of the possession when it resets and starts again on the next play.
It’s common knowledge that Kornet was a willing 3-point shooter during the early years of his career. However, those attempts came almost exclusively from the corners.
Rookie season…64 of his 71 attempts came from the corners
Sophomore season…152 of his 179 attempts came from the corners
Third season…77 of his 100 attempts came from the corners
Fourth season…17 of his 21 attempts came from the corners.
Mazzulla prefers to use Kornet around the top of the perimeter, with him operating above the break, in the slot or on the wing. As such, he leans into being a creation hub via screening actions and DHO’s. Unless Mazzulla starts asking Kornet to work more out of the corners, I doubt we see him implement a consistent 3-point shot to his game, as above the break threes have never been a staple for him.