Our first mailbag
Answering questions from The Celtics Chronicle community
Yesterday, I dropped a message in the Substack Chat (If you’re not part of this, download the app!) asking for some mailbag questions. Honestly, I didn’t know what to expect. However, there was an encouraging response with some very good questions.
So, with that in mind, let’s dive in.
Timk17: What sort of contract do you see Jrue Holiday receiving for 2024 and beyond? (Yes I'm being deliberately vague, knowing there are a lot of different angles to approach this. ;) )
Wow, a tough one right off the bat! Let’s start by looking at Holiday’s current deal. He has a player option for next season worth $37.3 million. Next season, he will be turning 34.
Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that Holiday is expected to be part of Team USA’s 12-man roster for the 2024 Olympics in Paris. MassLive Brian Robb believes his addition to the national team could expedite contract discussions between Holiday and the Boston Celtics front office.
"Holiday’s commitment to Team USA could be viewed as a sign that he feels like his long-term future will be settled well before Team USA begins training camp in late June," Robb wrote. "It would be a somewhat risky scenario for a veteran player coming off a deep playoff run to suit up at camp without having their future settled by that point with NBA free agency not set to begin until June 30th."
Let me preface this by saying that I’m not a cap guy. Still, I’ll give it a shot.
My take: The Celtics wait until Holiday is extension eligible, which is sometime in early April. A four-year deal with the final year being a player option makes sense. Given his age, the Celtics would likely look to reduce his salary but could reward him for sticking around. Something like a four for $72 million is a potential avenue.
That would provide Holiday with some additional security in the final stage of his career. An annual salary of $18 million would be a valuable trade chip in the current market, giving Boston some optionality on the back end of his contract if they decide to pivot toward a younger rotation in year three or four of the deal.
Holiday has discussed his desire to remain with the Celtics beyond his current contract.
“I’d like to be here,” Holiday said. “I feel like I’m getting more and more comfortable, loving the guys, loving the organization and loving the city.”
Boston is a second-apron team. They have a supermax contract negotiation on the horizon with Jayson Tatum. The ownership group will undoubtedly be willing to pay the tax for a contending roster. However, there has to be a line. That’s why $18 million per year makes sense to me. It’s (hopefully) enough to keep Holiday on the team and allow flexibility in the future.
If Brad Stevens can get Holiday to agree to a lower salary, perhaps in the $10-$15 million per year range, that would be a huge win. After all, he’s turning 34 next season. There will undoubtedly be a decline toward the back end of that contract. The key is making Holiday feel valued for the impact he’s made this season and will likely have in the coming years while also projecting age-related decline and limitations in the final year or two of the contract.
Dana Lukens: If you were Joe Mazzula, what would you do to prepare the team for the playoffs?
My take: Honestly? I feel like he’s already doing it. He’s implementing little wrinkles into the game plan to try and get the kinks ironed out before the postseason. The most prominent example of this would be the “2-1-2 Spy” zone defense the Celtics have been experimenting with. We’re seeing that coverage for fleeting moments within games. But, over time, the coaching staff is compiling film on those possessions that the roster can learn from.
For me, the regular season is an opportunity to get reps in a variety of situations and actions. For instance, earlier this season, the Celtics used a heavy diet of empty-side pick-and-rolls. Once the team became adept at running actions to create those empty sides and consistently created advantages, Joe Mazzulla began implementing new ways to attack and stretch a defense. Empty-side’s became a tool rather than a focus.
Still, if I were in Mazzulla’s shoes, once this national TV stretch is in the books, I would start shortening the rotation — not permanently — but enough to get some reps with the playoff group and to get them used to the new substitution patterns, rotations, and minutes distribution.
Overall, it’s hard to pick fault with how Mazzulla and his coaching staff have navigated this season. They’ve been fluid in their playcalling, smart in managing minutes, and hold the best record in the league. This team is ready for playoff basketball.
Michael Ouyang: If you were the Bucks, for example, how would you approach the KP mismatch creation problem, which it feels like unless KP himself just has a bad night, I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone come up with a way to stop yet.
My take: It’s been tough for opposing teams to try and hunt a mismatch against the Celtics. There are multiple switchable defenders on the roster, most of whom excel when guarding across multiple positions. However, I’ve been curious about what would happen if a team started playing Boston at their own game.
What happens if Porzingis is tasked with guarding a physically imposing big on the block? Doesn’t it make sense for teams to attack his high center of gravity by getting physical and going at his chest? Or, what if teams started running actions to switch Porzingis onto shifty, explosive guards while having Holiday or Derrick White switch onto a roller with size?
These are all things the Celtics do with consistency. Using the Milwaukee Bucks as an example, how would we feel if Doc Rivers consistently fed Brook Lopez on the block or tasked Giannis with attacking Porzingis on switches? It’s those types of matchups that he could struggle with, and it would force Mazzulla to adjust. It’s also why Brad Stevens moved to bring in Xavier Tillman, who brings the strength and physicality that was missing in that center rotation.
Of course, the Celtics have been excellent when “Peel Switching” this season, which has limited opposing teams’ chances of hunting mismatches or potential advantages. So, consistently getting those switches or matchups isn’t an easy task.
To round out this thought, I wanted to look at Porzingis’ defense by position to get a feel for the versatility he’s shown this season. The data is courtesy of the Basketball Index.
Porzingis primarily operates as a drop big. It makes sense that his primary match-up is an opposing center. However, as we can see, he sometimes switches onto the wing and has been rotating over to forwards both on close-outs and, most likely, as a helper on their drives.
So, for me, it’s not about attacking Porzingis as much as it’s about finding ways to force the Celtics defense into uncomfortable situations. You’re not going to find consistent success by looking for scoring chances on your first set; you need to run a second and third play each time down the floor; otherwise, as we’ve seen, this Celtics team is going to grind you to a halt.
Daniel Lubofsky: How has Joe Mazzulla progressed as a coach in year 2? Does he call timeouts?
First of all, I want to give a shoutout to Daniel. He’s my former colleague from CelticsBlog, although he’s primarily a Knicks fan. Don’t hold that against him, though! What I will say is that, in my opinion, Daniel produces some of the best satirical commentary on the NBA. So, if you’re looking for some light-hearted, humorous and current satire surrounding some of the bigger topics around the league, I highly recommend checking out his TikTok page.
My take: Mazzulla has made massive strides this season. He appears more comfortable in his role, has developed a fun relationship with the media, and has been earning praise from his team. To me, the most important aspect of Mazzulla’s second year was whether he could get his roster to buy into his methods and accept sacrifices for the good of the franchise. He’s done that. He passed that test with flying colors.
A significant part of Mazzulla’s success so far this season has been that he’s got his own coaching staff in place. He also had the opportunity to design and fine-tune his offensive and defensive systems during the summer, which wasn’t the case when he was thrust into the role last year.
In regards to the time-outs part of your question, Mazzulla had a fantastic interview with The Athletic’s Jared Weiss earlier this week. The discussion surrounded Mazzulla’s recent visit to Manchester, England — where was my call, Joe? I’m hurt. During the interview, Mazzulla revealed his love for soccer and how he’s taken inspiration by looking for crossovers in terms of technicality, the flow of the game, and ball movement. And he also discussed how soccer has influenced his time-out strategy.
“That’s where my timeout philosophy started. I think soccer coaches are the best teachers, because once the game starts, you can’t call a timeout,” Mazzulla said. “The ability to create a system where your guys can operate and function based on the ebbs and flows of the game and how the game is going is really important. You have to empower your players to understand exactly how the game’s going and how quickly you can self-correct to either stop a run or create your own run.”
Having so much talent on one roster can be a difficult task. It comes with its own set of pitfalls you must navigate. Mazzulla has done that expertly. I’m a big fan of what he’s achieved so far this season and remain hopeful he can continue impressing during the summer. Also, I love some of his offensive and defensive sets.
Drew: Would you rather Neemy get the open roster spot or some other buyout veteran?
My take: Neemy has produced in his limited opportunities this season. At times, he’s looked like a potential momentum shifter. At others, he’s simply been on the floor. That’s to be expected, though. He’s a two-way guy for a reason. He’s a project player. Still, coming into the February 14 trade deadline, I was expecting Brad Stevens to convert Neemy’s contract and for that to be the only business we saw unfold.
I was wrong. Stevens added Xavier Tillman and Jaden Springer. The addition of Tillman changed the outlook of what’s left of Neemy’s season. Tillman’s addition removed the need to add another big, and likely ended the hope of the high-motor big man receiving a full-time contract from the Celtics. I’m a fan of balance.
Right now, the Celtics have four bigs on their primary roster: Porzingis, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and Tillman. Adding Neemy feels like it would be overkill. That’s 33% of your team comprised of centers.
As such, I’m leaning more toward adding a veteran to the buy-out market. Otto Porter Jr’s name appears to be the most prominent within social media circles. Patty Mills could emerge as bench depth at the guard position behind Payton Pritchard. And just to clear this up, recently-released forward Marcus Morris is not a target, as his $17 million contract was over the non-taxpayer veteran minimum, making the Celtics ineligible to acquire him due to the restrictions placed on second-apron teams.
Of course, Stevens could decide that Neemy offers more upside than those veterans. At this point, we could see his contract converted. Personally, I wouldn’t be mad at that, but I also don’t see the need for it to happen.
TimK17: As the #1 seed gets closer and closer to being secured, do you anticipate the Celtics resting players against some potential playoff opponents (OKC, Denver, Bucks, etc) rather than give them more material for the film room?
My take: I don’t see the Celtics taking a “rest players against contenders” approach. My reasoning is simple: I would assume that teams have access to every game played around the league. Resting guys against potential playoff opponents may limit specific films in terms of matchups, but they’ve already played each other at least once.
However, I expect the Celtics to start resting some of their core players during the season's final weeks. I guess it will be similar to what we’ve seen from their handling of Porzingis and Horford this season. Tatum might sight out one night, Brown another, etc. I’m not expecting it to be major changes, not until the final few games, at least.
As long as the coaching staff are approaching things with the postseason in mind — which they undoubtedly will — I can’t imagine them taking unnecessary risks. They’ve worked too hard to put themselves in this position.
Drew: Are there any sets or specific actions that you would like the Celtics to use more in the postseason?
My take: I’ve been a big fan of Mazzulla’s offensive sets this season. I’m also a fan of how Boston is running a principled-based offense rather than relying on specific actions. As such, the Celtics have been running a “series” out of each set. For example, their “Ram” series has had multiple variations such as “Ram Pop,” “Ram Veer,” and even “Ram Ghost.” The point of a principled offense is that the players read the defense and the flow of the game and then call out their own actions on the fly.
As such, the Celtics’ offense has been increasingly unpredictable. I’ve loved their Horns series - which I broke down a little in this post. And I’ve become a fan of “cross” and “flex” actions when working on the interior. Still, If I had to choose an action or one series that I would like to see more of, it would be “Iverson” and specifically “Iverson Loop,” which Ime Udoka found success with.
I’ve dug deep into my Instagram archives to find the below breakdown of what an “Iverson Loop” looks like, and how it’s executed.
I also came across this “Iverson Spread” that I forgot about, so will share that, too.
Outside of the “Iverson” series, I wouldn’t mind seeing some more Dive or Gut DHOs (which were prominent to begin the season.) Still, we’re talking about NBA coaches here. They’re incredibly smart and incredibly talented. They will know what is going to work far better than I would. Still, I’m excited to see some new pages out of Mazzulla’s playbook when the postseason begins!
A reminder from yesterday
Yesterday evening, I sent an email noting that, as of Monday, I will be turning on paid subscriptions. I detailed my reasoning in the email. The short of it is that after starting this newsletter, I’ve quickly realized the lack of income from losing one of my outlets was hitting harder than I anticipated. Some of that is due to the worsening exchange rate on my end, and some of it is that life is expensive these days.
As I noted in the post, I’ve set a goal of building this newsletter, and I’m too stupid to believe it’s not possible. In fact, I’m stupid enough to believe that success is inevitable. If you’ve pledged a subscription, that pledge will become active when I turn on the paid option on Monday morning. If you've changed your mind, you can remove a pledge by following this link.
There will still be multiple free posts per week for those who prefer to stay on the free tier. However, if you’re able and willing to move into the subscription tier, please consider pledging now so that your subscription becomes live on Monday. I’ll have more on how the split between free and paid is going to work once the paid option is active.
Just as a reminder, all subscriptions - both free and paid — are incredibly appreciated.
Please keep sharing
I’m a big believer in word of mouth. As someone active across social media, I see people promoting their own content all the time, as I’m sure you do, too. Yet, I always take notice when I see people promoting someone else’s work. That’s a huge stamp of approval, and it drastically increases the chances of me checking out that person’s work.
So, if you like a post or a segment from within the post, please consider sharing. X, IG, FB, BlueSky, Threads, Reddit, Sons of Sam Horn, Mastodon — wherever you are active, shares are integral, and they can have a huge impact.
A change in shot diet?
Against the New York Knicks on Saturday, Feb. 24, the Celtics took 35 shots from deep. That’s just under 10 fewer attempts than their season average of 42.3. Then, against the Philadelphia 76ers, who were missing Joel Embiid, Boston took 22 attempts from deep. That’s TWENTY less shots from the perimeter.
The shift toward a more balanced shot profile began before the All-Star break. And while the shot disparity against the Sixers was likely an anomaly due to the lack of a genuine rim protector, it did raise some eyebrows, given the additional focus on post-scoring and rim pressure in recent weeks.
So, in yesterday’s episode of the “Green With Envy” podcast, Will Weir, Greg Maneikis and I dissected Boston’s shooting numbers on the season and tried to explore how an altered shot diet could benefit the Celtics between now and the end of the season.
One last thing
This was the first mailbag since launching this newsletter. I enjoyed all the questions and the different ways I looked at everything. If you want more of these, let me know! And if you weren’t able to get a question submitted in time, hopefully, we can chat some more and make this a re-occurring segment.
Have a great weekend, everybody! And enjoy tonight’s game against the Dallas Mavericks. I’ll be back tomorrow with some thoughts and my usual 10 Takeaways over on CelticsBlog!