The Luka Doncic conundrum

Some fleeting thoughts on potential defensive matchups for Doncic

Luka Doncic will be the best player in the NBA Finals. I don’t think that’s a hot take. He’s a top-2 talent in the NBA. Therefore, one of the biggest questions surrounding the Celtics’ upcoming matchup is how Joe Mazzulla’s team will look to limit Doncic’s impact.

The truth is, there’s no one way to guard Doncic. In the same way, there’s no specific way to guard Jayson Tatum or any other top-10, top-20 talent in the league. Instead, teams have to iterate through multiple systems. Throw different looks. Stick with what works and be willing to change things up before the coverage becomes stale and the star figures things out.

Mazzulla has an advantage here. The Celtics have elite defensive tools, from Derrick White and Jrue Holiday to Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford. Everyone brings some version of elite defense to the table. Most importantly, everyone is versatile. You can ask each of them to flow into different looks and not be concerned with potentially over-stretching your team.

We’ve seen the Celtics be fluid with their defensive coverages all season.

• Switch 1-though-5.

• Switch 1-through-4 with the big man in drop.

• 2-3 Zone.

• 2-1-2 Spy Zone.

• Throwing Ice covering on side PnRs.

• Using Tatum as a roamer.

• Putting Tatum as the rim protector with Porzingis roaming.

• Playing up-to-touch.

• Straight man-to-man

I could keep going. That’s how versatile Boston is on the defensive end. That’s how open Mazzulla has been to experimenting with different coverages and adding reps to each system.

Against Doncic, the Celtics will need all of those looks and more.

“I think we're going to see a lot of different guys take turns on Luka,” Keith Smith said in today’s episode of the Celtics Chronicle podcast. “And a handful of different guys take turns on Kyrie as well. I think Luka is the head of the snake, if you will. You're not going to stop him. I'm not going to suggest that. It's ridiculous that anybody thinks he can be shut down.

But you just want to make him have to work. Make it difficult on him, and make him have to make reads, try to turn him into a playmaker — which he is a very willing one, but try to get him in positions where he's just seeing different stuff. I think you're going to see a lot of different looks from Boston.”

I agree with Keith, here. I think we’re going to see a bunch of different coverages and matchups for Doncic. And that’s going to be the crux of today’s piece. I’m not pretending like I know what to expect. In fact, part of the fun is learning on the fly. Seeing how things unfold and taking note of all the different chess battles on the court.

Instead, I’m going to throw out three ideas that feel logical. We might not see them in Game 1. We might not see them at all. But we’ve got some days to fill, and this felt like a fun exercise.

The cross match

The common consensus coming into this series is that Brown will likely draw the first assignment in guarding Doncic. That makes sense. Brown is athletic, has solid size and has emerged as a high-level on-ball wing defender throughout the season. The question is whether you want Brown navigating a flurry of ball screens throughout the series. After all, all that contact can wear you down, especially if the game gets physical.

Perhaps this is where cross-matching could come into play. We’ve seen Holiday hold his own when guarding opposing bigs this season. We’ve also seen Mazzulla cross-match Holiday onto opposing bigs to remove any advantage when a switch occurs on the PnR.

Having Brown guard Doncic and then switching the PnR and having Holiday jump onto him, would be a tough system to deal with. Holiday is one of the best defenders in the entire league. He’s strong enough to deal with Doncic’s physicality, quick enough not to get blown-by, and talented enough to make life tough for the Mavericks star.

Of course, Holiday may find himself jumping out to defend Irving, too. It all depends on who has the PnR run for them. Either way, forcing a switch away from Brown — or even White (likely in Irving’s case) and being met with Holiday is a daunting task. Factor in Porzingis waiting around the rim and Tatum providing gap help, and this scheme could create some problems that Dallas must solve.

Switch 1-through-4 with the big man in drop.

The most common defensive system we’ve seen this season. Put Porzingis or Horford in drop, and have everyone else switch actions elsewhere on the floor. When the top-6 rotation is out there, Dallas will struggle to find someone to pick on. If I had to wager a guess, it would be Horford who is hunted the most. Porzingis will likely get tested, too, as the Mavericks look to gauge how fit he is and whether his lateral quickness is at a decent level.

If we extend that rotation to the 8 players we’ve seen throughout the postseason, Pritchard may find himself being tested, too. In truth, though, Boston is one of the best defensive teams for a reason. Even their weakest link is still a reliable defensive piece.

For all of the priase the Celtics offense has garnered this year, it’s the defensive end that is the identity of this roster. They’ve proven it time and time again.

Of course, Doncic will want to get switches. He will thrive in any space afforded to him and will exploit any gaps that arise as the defense rotates over. He will have ideas of who he can gain an advantage over. Whether the Celtics look to pre-switch actions remains to be seen, but it could be a good way of switching on contact without giving up the advantage.

No matter what happens, this will likely be a staple of how the Celtics set up. It’s been a core part of their system all year. At this point in the season, you trust in the work you’ve put in, stay true to yourself, and double down on what’s got you here.

Straight man-to-man coverage

Guarding straight up could be a viable option for the Celtics. This season, they haven’t been a team that frequently sends two at the ball. Instead, they switch or trust their talent to stick with their opponent. Having Brown, White or Holiday operate in the rearview of Doncic could be an opportunity to try and test his poise at this level with this amount of pressure. It’s his first time in the NBA Finals. These lights shine brightly.

I wouldn’t bet on Doncic wilting, though. He’s too good and too much of an assassin for that. Still, different looks are the best way to keep him on his toes and guessing. Brown feels like the ideal matchup when going man-to-man (or in most actions, to be fair) because he can absorb Doncic’s contact without being dislodged off his line.

The key with playing man — or any other primary coverage — is knowing when to send help and when to stay home. Doncic feasts off drawing defenders and finding open shooters. There’s a reason why Dallas is so good at cooking teams out of the corner on the catch.

As such, any help defense should come at the nail or higher up the floor, allowing other defenses to sink and fill or split the difference on the weak side. Ideally, though, Boston will experiment with ways to shrink the floor or limit the Mavericks from pushing the pace. Some 2-1-2 presses could be for very short spells throughout the game.

This weeks schedule

Between now and Friday morning, I will look at some Mavericks games. I will dive into how they generate their offense and how their defense holds up against different actions or play styles. I’m unsure whether I will stick with the Timberwolves series or go back through the tape and rewatch the matchups with Boston…That will be a game-time decision — feel free to give me your thoughts in the comments section.

These breakdowns will all be for paid subscribers. The special offer on annual plans is still running for a few more days. Grab yourself a steal.

Catch everyone tomorrow!