Thunderbolt and lightning, very very frightening
In what could be the Celtics last big regular-season game, we're about to witness two of the best teams in the league going toe-to-toe.
The Boston Celtics face the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. It could be the last big game of the season. Yes, there are still games against the New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks on the schedule, but by that point, the best record in the NBA will be secured, and there will literally be nothing to play for.
So, tonight’s game could be the last semi-competitive matchup before the playoffs begin. Still, tonight is a big game, and as has become tradition ahead of big games, we’re going to look at some data about the Thunder and figure out what we can expect from the matchup—and, more importantly, what the Celtics need to do to secure a win.
Oklahoma: By the numbers
The Thunder ranks fourth in offensive rating, averaging 118.7 points per 100 possessions. They’re also fourth in defensive rating, limiting opponents to an average of 111.5 points per 100 possessions. Mark Daigneault’s team has a net rating of +7.3, good for second in the NBA.
That offensive and defensive balance has seen the Thunder emerge as a genuine threat out of the Western Conference. Despite lacking genuine veteran leadership, they’re playing a balanced brand of basketball and executing at an elite level.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is undoubtedly the head of the snake. However, Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams have all proven themselves as future stars in the NBA, too—Giddey and Williams both took leaps this season.
Offensive Shot location frequency
This is where the Thunder’s offense is coming from and how frequently they look to attack those spots. The higher the league ranking, the more frequently the Thunder are attacking those spots vs. other teams in the league.
Around the rim: 33.1%, 17th in the league
Mid-Range: 32.1%, 8th in the league
Short mid-range: 22.6%, 13th in the league
Long mid-range: 9.5%, 9th in the league
3-Point: 34.8%, 19th in the league
Corner 3s: 9.4%, 17th in the league
Non-corner 3s: 25.5%, 20th in the league
Offensive Shot location efficiency
This is how accurately a team is shooting from each location on the court - the higher the league ranking, the better the Thunder are at scoring in those areas.
Around the rim: 67.5%, 14th in the league
Mid-Range: 47.3%, 3rd in the league
Short mid-range: 48.2, 3rd in the league
Long mid-range: 45.2%, 6th in the league
3-Point range: 39.6%, 1st in the league
Corner 3s: 41.2%, 6th in the league
Non-Corner 3’s: 38.9%, 1st in the league
Putting that into context
The Thunder have a balanced shot diet. They shoot almost 33.3% from each location, which means they do not favor any specific area of the floor. Instead, they attack each level at a consistent pace, making them incredibly difficult to scheme against.
They’re also one of the best scoring teams in the league. Granted, they’re middle of the pack when it comes to finishing around the rim, but they’re elite in the mid-range and from deep (where they rank 1st in conversion rate.)
Given the talent at their disposal and the speed at which SGA plays, finding ways to impact their shot profile is going to be difficult. For Boston, the most logical option is to try and funnel the Thunder toward the rim; that’s where they’re weakest in scoring and one of the Celtic’s strongest areas of the floor on defense. Still, funneling a genuine three-level scoring team isn’t going to be easy, especially with the amount of dribble penetration at their disposal.
Defensive shot location frequency
This is where opposing teams look to generate their offense against the Thunder’s defense - the lower the league ranking, the more frequently teams are attacking those spots.
Around the rim: 33.2%, 14th in the league
Mid-range: 29.1%, 8th in the league
Short mid-rage: 20.6%, 9th in the league
Long mid-range: 8.5%, 15th in the league
3-Point range: 37.7%, 25th in the league
Non-Corner 3’s: 12.6%, 30th in the league
Corner 3: 25.1%, 3rd in the league
Defensive shot location success rate
This is where opposing teams find success on offense - the lower the league ranking, the more successful teams are from those spots.
Around the rim - 61.5%, 1st in the league
Mid-Range - 42.4%, 8th in the league
Short mid-range - 42.8%, 13th in the league
Long mid-range - 41.5%, 8th in the league
3-Point range - 36.7%, 14th in the league
Non-Corner 3’s - 36.5%, 17th in the league
Corner 3’s - 37.1%, 6th in the league
Putting that into context
The Celtics need to avoid falling into bad habits here. The Thunder will let you shoot the three to your heart’s content. They rank 25th in the league for 3-point attempts made and 14th in the league for 3-point attempts scored against them. Their rim defense and mid-range defense are both solid, so it likely makes teams want to attack the path of least resistance.
On paper, this is fine. The Celtics like to get their 3-point shots up and are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. However, process is king. Boston is at its best when creating rhythm by attacking the rim, and the Thunder have the best rim defense in the NBA. They’ll let you get there, but they make life incredibly tough around the cup. So, it’s going to be interesting to see if the Celtics stick to the process that’s been generating high-quality looks or if they fall into the trap of early threes off single screens and limited movement.
We’re going to see a solid chess battle on both ends of the floor. The Celtics are a solid three-level defensive team. They have great gap help. Good size around the rim. And some of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. The Thunder will dare you to shoot, and Boston loves to shoot. We’re in for an interesting game.
Setting the Stage for the Celtics
One of the best ways to consistently generate great spacing is to operate with an empty corner in early offense. The Celtics did this against the Charlotte Hornets on Monday and consistently found driving lanes to generate kick-out opportunities to angles to attack via cuts and drives.
There are two different ways Boston has been making use of playing via an empty-side action.
The pinch post
The “pinch post” is an action that was heavily featured in the triangle offense and still has a place in the modern NBA. The action is designed to get a player (usually, but not always a big man) on the post, mid-post or block, with no other player filling the nearest sideline. As such, it’s essentially an empty corner elbow action.
In the above clip, Luke Kornet is fed the rock in the pinch post. From there, Payton Pritchard cuts off a stagger screen and then sinks in to fill the corner and attack off the dribble. For Boston, these actions work well for two reasons.
As a team, they are one of the most post offense heavy teams in the NBA. They’re used to working out of that area on the court and have multiple go-to actions once the ball has been entered in.
The Celtics have numerous perimeter shooting threats that can nail a jumper off the catch. They also have some elite slashers that can attack closeouts. And, they have smart decisions makers at every position.
We also see Kristaps Porzingis consistently attacking out of pinch post actions when facing up to his defender.
I will admit the pinch post usually occurs higher up the court. Often, it’s around the elbow or near the slot. Still, the principle remains the same, and the Celtics do a solid job of creating out of these actions. They have size and playmaking across the board. The Thunder are 8th in the league for defensive mid-range frequency — that means they do a good job of pressuring ball-handlers in the middle of the floor. The Celtics will be looking to draw two and then find the open man — good process,
Empty corner actions
This is pretty much what it says on the tin. The Celtics have found significant success when running empty corner pick-and-rolls. Mazzulla’s game plan featured this action heavily to begin the season. As the year wore on, Boston moved away from it. Yet, with the season winding down, we’re starting to see the Celtics run more actions with an empty corner, likely to get some rhythm there.
Based on what we've seen from them this season, here are a few different ways the Celtics could attack the additional spacing an empty corner action provides.
Empty corner drag screen
Wide pin-down, big man rolls into space after emptying the corner
Wide pin-down into empty corner PnR
Empty corner chase
Empty corner grenade DHO
And, of course, the standard empty corner PnR
As you can see, not every empty corner action has to start with the corner being empty. You can run plays during half-court sets to remove the corner shooter (such as the pin-downs shown above). The aim is to remove the low help, thus creating an easier driving lane and forcing the defense to rotate over to provide resistance, at which point the offenses spacing is at a premium and can stretch out the defending team, forcing some tough decisions.
If the Celtics want to generate consistently high-quality looks from all three levels, working with empty corners will be a solid strategy to begin with.
Pulling the big man out of the paint
Oklahoma’s rim defense is surprising, considering they’re not the biggest of teams. That means they’re likely attacking live dribbles with well-timed stunts, good gap help, and funneling ball-handlers toward Holmgren and Bismack Biyombo. As such, it’s likely we see the Celtics operate out of delay actions on the perimeter.
“Delay” is just a fancy way of saying a team is in five-out spacing with the big man at the top of the perimeter with the ball in his hands. Al Horford is an impressive passer. Porzingis has proven he has some playmaking chops, too. Most importantly, though, being in the delay forces the defending big to step up toward the perimeter or at last at the nail.
The aim is to then run some off-ball screening actions to generate mismatches and look to exploit the space behind the defense via cuts, screens, and drives.
I’ve also been a big fan of the following action, where the Celtics are in delay and then run double wide pin downs to create a ton of off-ball movement.
There will undoubtedly be other routes to attack the Thunder’s defense and look to generate advantages. However, I would expect to see one of the empty corners, pinch or delay actions being featured. Of course, I could be wrong. We’re talking about NBA coach’s here, they are vastly more knowledgable. I could also talk all day about actions, strategy and tactics. I digress.
Three questions I have heading into the game
Who draws the SGA assignment?
Jaylen Brown has been vocal about his desire to take on the most difficult defensive matchups this season. He did a fantastic job when guarding Zion Williamson over the weekend. Still, SGA is a drastically different opponent than Zion. Brown will need to lean into his athleticism and explosiveness as he tries to stay in front of a top-three guard in the NBA — assuming he’s cleared to play. If Brown does struggle, I would expect to see Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum both take turns with that assignment. Mazzulla will undoubtedly iterate through his options.
Will the Celtics rest anyone?
Mazzulla has been pretty consistent in his resting policy since the Celtics secured the top seed in the Eastern Conference. As such, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if he decided to sit one or more of his primary rotation. However, judging by the team’s current injury report, the only major question mark heading into the game is Brown, who is currently listed as questionable.
Of course, players can still be added to the injury report. However, with this game being one of the final few big matchups of the season, I’m hopeful that we see a full-strength rotation — even if it’s the last time we see that until the playoffs.
Will we see some zone?
We haven’t seen much of Boston’s 2-1-2 spy zone defense since the team returned from the All-Star break. Heading into the season, Mazzulla spoke of his desire to have some curveballs in his pocket. I would be interested to see how the zone defense would look against an elite offensive opponent, even if just for a few possessions. After all, the more data the coaching staff can gather on that system, the better. I do doubt we see it, though. Like really doubt it. Maybe we see the 2-1-2 press, though — we saw that against Charlotte and it worked well.
Some more preview stuff
If you still want more Celtics/Thunder discussion to fill your day, Will Weir (one of my co-hosts on the Green With Envy Podcast) and I dove into the matchup in our latest preview podcast. You can watch that via the embedded video below.
Wrapping it up
Win or lose, the result doesn’t have a huge impact on the Celtics. One way or another, they’re likely to secure the best record in the NBA and with it, homecourt advantage throughout the entire postseason. The result also doesn’t dictate how the team’s chances of winning a championship this season are shaping up, regardless of what the debate shows will tell you.
Still, I’m hoping for an elite basketball game with multiple counters to each other's systems and players getting hot or cold. Two of the best teams in the world will be facing off tonight. There’s nothing much riding on this game besides pride and bragging rights. I’m excited to see how both rosters look against each other. Most importantly, I’m curious who can force the first adjustment and take control of the game.
I’ll be back tomorrow with some thoughts from the game.
If you’re new here and enjoyed what you read, please consider subscribing — either to a free or paid plan. These previews are usually for paid subscribers. However, as i’ve been absent for the past two days, I wanted to make it free for everyone. Enjoy that game; thanks for rocking with me; catch y’all in the AM.
Another phenomenal article Adam! I become such a better coach because of you