Would a Vucevic Trade Fix the Celtics' Front Court Issues? A Deep Dive
That's why a recent trade idea from NBC Sports Boston Media Editor, Josh Canu, via Chris Forsberg's "Ramp to Camp" article, caught my eye. Canu suggested moving Anfernee Simons in a straight swap for Nikola Vucevic.
The Boston Celtics front court continues to consume a significant amount of my mental bandwidth. Going from Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet to Luka Garza, Chris Boucher and Neemias Queta (who is a holdover from the last two years) is a tough sell.
Sure, there are reasons for optimism. Queta shone during his six-game stint at EuroBasket. Garza looks like a potential buy-low, sell-high addition, and Boucher is a solid contributor.
And then, there's the Xavier Tillman of it all.
You may have noticed I left Tillman off the front-court lists above. That's because we don't know his current health status. Clearly, he's been dealing with some issues since arriving in Boston, and even if he's healed up, there's a chance those problems could crop back up.
Still, we also have to approach the season with a harsh dose of realism. The truth is, this front-court rotation is unproven, inexperienced and could thrive or struggle to keep pace.
That's why a recent trade idea from NBC Sports Boston Media Editor, Josh Canu, via Chris Forsberg's "Ramp to Camp" article, caught my eye. Canu suggested moving Anfernee Simons in a straight swap for Nikola Vucevic.
"Both players are on expiring contracts, the Bulls get a younger player, and the Celtics get a starting center and some cap relief as well," Canu wrote. "Not the sexiest move, but a move that works and is attainable."
I like and dislike this trade idea equally. Therefore, I thought it would be a good offseason exercise to examine the pros and cons of the hypothetical move.
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Why A Vucevic Trade Could Help The Celtics
The first question to ask here is whether Queta needs to be Boston's starting center. Could he be just as, if not more impactful, as a high usage backup? Would having a veteran big man to lean on increase the Celtics' chances of success?
And, more importantly, does Vucevic's floor-spacing raise the Celtics' ceiling enough that he would be worth swapping out Simons for?
All of the above are fair questions. In fact, they're questions that would need to be answered by Brad Stevens and his front office team before picking up the phone to the Chicago Bulls.
However, let's set them aside for a moment. Let's focus on what Vucevic could bring to the rotation.
Floor spacing
If Mazzulla is going to continue implementing a perimeter-heavy offense, having a big that can spread the floor and knock down their shots will be a key factor in how successful the half-court offense will be.
Last season, Vucevic attempted a total of 320 threes, nailing 129 of them, for a 40% conversion rate, excluding garbage time attempts, according to Cleaning The Glass. That ranked Vucevic in the 85th percentile of bigs. It is worth noting that perimeter jumpers accounted for only 29% of his offensive shot profile.
According to NBA Stats, Vuecevic averaged 4.4 three-point attempts per game, with all of them coming off the catch. He took a total of two pull-up threes off the bounce, going 1-of-2.
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If Mazzulla is going to be building his offense around Jaylen Brown this season, a floor-spacing five would be ideal. After all, Brown needs space to attack off the catch and to work his magic in the mid-range. Vucevic would add the perimeter threat at the five, making it far more challenging when teams look to send two at Brown.
Interestingly, Billy Donovan consistently found ways to generate high-quality looks for Vucevic last season. 3.7 of his 4.4 attempts per game came when he was wide open. He converted those looks at a 40.7% clip.
On paper, Vucevic's perimeter threat makes perfect sense as an addition to the Celtics roster, especially after losing both Porzingis and Horford, who provided a consistent shooting threat off the catch.
Mid-range scoring
42% of Vucevic's offense comes from the mid-range. He's not the same level of post threat as Porzingis, but he still averaged 3.7 post-ups per game last season, with 1.5 of those ending in a shot, where he averaged 54.5% from the floor.
For reference, Porzingis averaged 3.9 post-ups, taking shots on 2 of them a night, hitting 58.3%.
Where Vucevic has a bit of an advantage is that he's incredibly confident when facing the basket in the mid-range. He's got a smooth jumper around the elbows and free-throw line extended, and a reliable short mid-range game to counter when teams take away the rim.
Cleaning The Glass tracks short "short mid-range" attempts, which are between 4 and 14 feet from the basket. Vucevic has sat in the 55-57% range in that region of the last three seasons, with between 30-35% of his mid-range shots coming from that distance.
Here are a few clips of his short mid-range game
First, we have a short mid-range floater...
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Next up in the face-up jumper from the post....
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And, finally, who doesn't want to see a nice turnaround jumper early on a Tuesday morning?
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Rebounding
With Jayson Tatum sidelined due to injury and a lack of experience in the front court, the Celtics could use some additional rebounding. According to CourtSketch, ranked in the top-15 players for rebounds per game last season, averaging 10.1 per game.
When he was on the floor last season, Vucevic gobbled up 22.3% of his opponents' missed shots. He's a glass-eating machine and has no problem grabbing boards in traffic.
I'm a big believer that the first step to controlling the tempo of a game is having an advantage on the glass. Therefore, a big man who has gravitational pull for rebounds will always be a welcome addition, assuming they can provide additional value elsewhere on the floor, of course.
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Now, don't let those numbers fool you, Vucevic can still have butter fingers at times – I think that's normal for any player, especially when playing at the highest level. But for the most part, he's got a knack for securing the ball – on both sides of the floor.
In fact, 2.4 of Vucevic's 10.1 rebounds per game last season came on the offensive end.
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I actually have quite a lot of faith in Queta's ability to be a valuable rebounder for the Celtics next season. However, that doesn't mean the idea of adding another high-level glass eater isn't an appealing idea...
Passing ability
An underrated aspect of Vucevic's offensive game is his ability to spot a pass and make the read. From the film I've seen, he's got a solid passing range, both out of the delay and when on the move. Perhaps that's why he averaged 3.5 dimes per game last season, and 3.4 throughout his tenure with the Bulls.
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The above clip is a good starting point when talking about Vucevic's passing ability. His shooting threat means Brook Lopez has to stay high once the Bulls' big man receives the pass. As such, there's more room for Ayo Dosunmu as he slips his back screen for Josh Giddey. From there, it's a simple execution for Vucevic, straight out of the Donovan playbook – this is a variant of the "Gator Action."
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This clip, from later in the same game, showcases some of Vucevic's downhill playmaking. He starts the action by spacing the floor in the weakside slot – an alignment that is becoming incredibly common in the NBA, especially with non-shooting bigs.
Once he engages in a slot cut and takes control of the loose ball, Vucevic's footwork and post-skill allow him to create a line-of-sight to Giddey in the far corner. Solid read. He doesn't panic. Gets the assist. A veteran move, from a veteran big man.
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And of course, if you're going to be a big man in the Celtics system – or at least the system from the last few years – you need to have some passing chops out of the roll. You can get a good feel for that in the above clip, where Vucevic gets the early pocket pass, uses his interior scoring gravity to draw help off the corner, and makes the read to the open man.
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Finally, Mazzulla likes his bigs to have some skill when running hand-off actions. So, it's only fitting that I pull a clip of Vucevic getting an assist via a "Chicago/Zoom" action, right?
In truth, being a good playmaker is about more than generating assists. You can make the right reads and still not have them register in the box score – whether your teammate scores the rock is outside of your control. Still, Vucevic has no problem redirecting the ball when the opportunity arises.
Furthermore, since arriving with the Bulls, he's flashed a decent range of passing ability, and if he were to land on the Celtics, Mazzulla would undoubtedly find ways to use that to the team's advantage.
I'm quite a big fan of PBP Stats' assist network visualizer. I find it's a great way to see which players have a strong on-court connection in terms of potential two-man games, etc.
When looking at this image, the thicker the lines, the stronger the assist network is. So, Vucevic's best connection was with Giddey, with both finding each other consistently. There's a connection with Zach LaVine and Coby White, too.
What do those three have in common? Yup, they were all primary scorers for the Bulls. So, it's fair to assume Vucevic would quickly build a connection with Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, right? I would sure hope so.
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Why A Vucevic Trade Wouldn't Help The Celtics
Ok, we've looked at the reasons why I would be open to a potential Simons for Vucevic swap. Now, let's look at why I would rather Stevens look elsewhere.
Contract status
Vucevic, like Simons, is entering the final year of his deal. He will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer. Therefore, Stevens would be swapping one expiring deal for another.
The Celtics would save $6.2 million by making the trade, as Simons is set to earn $27.6 million this season, and Vucevic is at $20 million. But, in a straight-up deal, all Boston is doing is trading one expiring for another, with no additional assets coming their way.
I tend to look at Simons' and any potential deal that includes him as an extension of the Jrue Holiday trade. So, naturally, I would prefer some tangible assets heading back to the Celtics. Of course, that may not be realistic given Simons' current salary, his contract status, and the fact that he's likely overpaid for the role he will assume on most non-rebuilding teams.
Perhaps the Celtics would look to re-sign Vucevic. Or maybe they would be open to the short-term partnership as a way to fix a weakened front-court. And maybe, for some of you, the expiring deal would be an attractive prospect, yet without an additional asset, this is a check in the negative column for me.
I don't see the value in taking away developmental minutes from Queta and Garza for a veteran big man who will be heading for the exit door next summer.
Defense
Here's the crux of the issue. For all the good Vucevic can provide on offense, his defense can leave a lot to be desired. Sure, he's got good size and is fairly mobile when guarding in space, but overall, he is far from a strong defender.
According to Dunks and Threes, Vucevic was an average defensive presence among bigs last season, earning a +0.1 Estimated Plus/Minus. CourtSketch has his defensive LEBRON at -0.06 and a -2.4 net rating when on the court.
While those three advanced metrics sound unfavorable, in actuality, Vucevic ranked near the 50th percentile among bigs across all of them. He's not an awful defender, but he's also nowhere near an upgrade over what the Celtics already have in the front court (on that side of the ball).
But let's dig deeper into where those defensive limitations really show up.
Rim Protection Concerns: Despite standing 6'10" with solid length, Vucevic has never been much of a shot deterrent. His block rate of 1.1% last season ranked him in the 26th percentile among centers. When opponents attacked the rim with Vucevic as the primary defender, they converted at a 69.9% clip, scoring on 5.4 of their 7.1 attempts per game – well above league average for shots at or near the rim.
That's a far cry from what the Celtics lost in Horford and Porzingis, where both could either alter shots or force difficult attempts through angle control. Even Queta, in his limited minutes, has shown more rim protection upside than what Vucevic brings to the table.
Struggles when guarding the PnR: Vucevic has consistently struggled in drop coverage, often finding himself caught between helping at the rim and staying attached to his man. According to NBA Stats, opponents shot 43.3% when Vucevic was switched onto the ball-handler in PnR situations. If he stayed attached to the roll man, that success rate fell to 39.2%.
Vucevic is a viable drop defender who does well at staying in front of guards when they're getting downhill. However, his inability to provide a legitimate block threat, coupled with his lack of hip flexibility when changing directions, makes him a viable target in PnR situations – something which Mazzulla would loathe.
Transition Defense: Vucevic has never been a picture of athleticism. It's not his game. He isn't a rim-running big. The downside is, as he's got older, he's lost even more of a step, making it difficult for him to be a defensive weapon in transition.
Unfortunately, NBA stats don't provide defensive transition stats for individual players, so we can't look at the direct numbers there. However, kind of surprisingly, the Bulls were one of the better transition defensive teams, holding opponents to 51.5% shooting. I would assume that is in spite of Vucevic, rather than because of him.
At least with Queta, you're getting a two-way impact along with potential upside for him to keep improving. And, Garza could be just as average of a defender if given the opportunity.
Long-term fit, or lack of
Any move to add a new talent to the front court should hit at least one of these three check boxes:
The player is, or could become, a star at their position
There's a clear upside and an upgrade on both sides of the ball
They're young enough to become part of the next championship core, either as a starter or off the bench.
Vucevic doesn't fill any of those boxes.
The Celtics are a retooling team. Taking flyers on aging veterans in the final stages of their careers doesn't make sense. Vucevic needs to land with a contender. He's been in the league for 14 years. If the Bulls move him, it should be for an opportunity to challenge for a ring.
Final Thoughts
Look, I get the appeal. I really do.
On paper, swapping Simons for Vucevic addresses some glaring concerns with Boston's front court. You get a proven floor-spacer who can knock down catch-and-shoot threes at a high level.
You add a veteran presence who understands how to operate in the mid-range and can grab boards in traffic. And yes, his passing ability would fit nicely into what Mazzulla wants to do offensively.
Unfortunately, in reality, basketball isn't played on paper.
When I step back and look at this move through the lens of what the Celtics are trying to accomplish, it feels like a lateral move disguised as an upgrade. Sure, Vucevic brings offensive skills that would help in the short term. But his presence would hinder the development and growth of Queta and Garza. He's also not a long-term solution in the middle of the floor.
A few extra wins on the season aren't worth the cost in talent development.
It's an opportunity cost. Every minute Vucevic plays is a minute that Queta and Garza aren't developing. Every defensive possession he labors through is another where the Celtics are building a switchable, high-intensity identity.
The Celtics don't need a quick fix. They need sustainable, long-term growth to anchor their current retooling process. Adding Vucevic is the kind of move a team makes when they're looking to add depth and get over the top, not when they're starting to rebuild a rotation.
If the Celtics are going to move Simons, it should be for a player who checks at least one of those three boxes I mentioned earlier – someone who can be a star, provides clear two-way value, or fits the age curve of their future core.
Vucevic, for all his offensive skills, doesn't check any of them.
Sometimes the best move is the one you don't make.
This feels like one of those times.
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