it wouldve been nice if we got a comp showing what luke, sam or al does so we clearly see if letting Jrue go is the right move or not.
Yes i know those 3 are all in danger of leaving. However, on sams part, hes not gonna be priority. Dumping him does nothing. We are still at minimum 26M over the 2nd apron next year. Dumping Sams contract doesnt fix that. Nor does dumping PP in addition to that.
Theres only 5 players we can dump to get under the 2nd apron: jt, jb, d.white, kp and jrue. As you said the Js are untouchable. I agree unless JB asks out. D.white IMO is also untouchable. So its down to KP and Jrue. The more replaceable player there IMO is jrue. Hes older too. now, the follow up question here is a comp of KP vs. jrue. Is KP the one thats easier to replace with neemi, luke or al?
Win another or not I believe Sam and KP or Jrue will be gone, but don't we have to match salaries in a deal, and when over the cap can't aggregate multiple players for 1, so there's some additional work to do? Only Al's $9.5M drops off , Hausers $10M kicks in, D White an $8M bump, JT $10M. Holiday's $32M, $35M, $37M over the next 3 are looking to be a big overpay, like Al with Philly? I expect Al will retire. Think we have seen it looks like Schierman can fill Sam's role for a lot less. Luke could chase a big dollar offer with his level of play that the C's cant match
I expect Al to continue playing. Hes still playing at a high level. I think 2 more years. Just a question of can we convince him to take a discount (vet min) to stay. Agreed on baylor. The scenario where we move sam on top of jrue is in case we need to allocate more money to al AND luke above what i stated earlier.
Luke can certainly do what you said but IMO unless he is offered a significant upgrade over what we can pay him (say 10-12M), he stays. It was reported someone offered him the TPMLE last offseason (5M) and luke decided to sign with us for the vet min. Hes not going to uproot his family for a paltry increase (3+M). since we can offer him 6M if jrue is dumped, hes not leaving unless someone decides to use their MLE on him.
if we dump jrue for a vet min (32M), this gives us an extra 6M to work with for increasing luke and Al's extensions. maybe al takes the vet min then we can resign luke to 6M per.
IMO supermaxes are always overpays but they were a necessary evil. JB looks to be an overpay. Jrue is an overpay given his age. D.white IMO is our most valuable contract and shouldnt be traded. I'm not worried about extending KP as he has already verbalized being willing to take a discount to stay in boston. He already turned down an 80M offer from brad and signed for 60M in his recent contract.
Same being gone does nothing cap wise. Even when combined with PP. So i doubt hes traded unless we want to bring a certaib player in. one of kp, jrue, jb, jt or d.white is enough. I think its going to be jrue but i've seen people have valid arguments for KP and JB.
The cap situation next year as per spotrac is we are approximately 18M over the 2nd apron with 11 players locked in. We have to fill in those last 3 spots with rookies/vet mins. That would cost approximately 8M. this assumes al, luke and craig are gone or assumes luke and al have resigned for vet mins.
this means we need to get rid of someone making at least 26M. Thats only jb, jt, d.white, kp or jrue. Sam and pp only combines for 18M.
What type of comparison did you want, considering all of the guys you just named play completely different roles in different positions? How are you supposed to quantify that in terms of VORP?
The Celtics just swept an entire road series for the first time in history, and apparently that's still not enough.
The 6-0 road sweep here is irrelevant. Happy for the win. The question i have is for the offseason. I'm trying to figure out if ownership does decide get to get us below the 2nd apron, who should be the guy who's cut?
I think similar to what you did for Jrue but show al, luke or sam as well. The different roles and positions IMO dont matter as when i've seen Joe sit we've seen him start one of these 3. We've ether gone double big or triple wing. Hes also started pp but that was just 1 game so i'm skipping that.
basically, i was hoping to see, if we had to lose one due to 2nd apron, is losing jrue really that devastating? if yes, how does losing KP instead compare to that? I guess the real question i:m trying to get answered is if we had to get rid one of the 5 starters, who should it be and why? While keeping in mind their possible replacements in terms of production, structure, etc.
Role 100% matters in the context of comparing players, as does position. How can you compare what Luke does to what Jrue does in this context? Like that changes everything, from rotations, to sub patterns, to actions, to defensive structure.
I think this is missing the forest for the trees. but also perhaps this is your answer. Jrue is someone we must never give up/trade. My question can be simplified to: factoring everything (role, performance, age, replacements, etc), due to 2nd apron constraints, if we have to get under the 2nd apron (which means give up 1 of jb, jt, jrue, kp or d.white), who do we give up and why?
if your answer is not jrue, not jt, not jb if i'm understanding your initial comments correctly its between KP and d.white. who between those 2 then?
As fans, it's sometimes hard to avoid "what have you done for me lately" syndrome when evaluating players. Jrue's numbers and consistency are not the same as last year. But for outsiders, it's difficult to factor in things like injury, fatigue (Olympics), work ethic, locker room contributions, etc. Adam's analysis helps shed light on some of the other intangibles that don't show up in a box score.
Over the past 10 games, Holiday's PPG, 2p%, assists and rebounds are nearly identical to last season. He's turned the ball over 9 times in 334 minutes. He's a +10.5. 3-pt% is still up and down. He was 2-for-5 and 5-for-7 the last 2 games. Maybe tonight will say something about whether or not this is the start of a trend.
At the end of the day, this Celtics team isn't careening toward the trade deadline with major question marks. They aren't under any pressure to make corrections right now. Hopefully we're celebrating #19 in 2.5 months. If not, management will have to take a hard look at what exactly went wrong and choose a path to fix it.
it wouldve been nice if we got a comp showing what luke, sam or al does so we clearly see if letting Jrue go is the right move or not.
Yes i know those 3 are all in danger of leaving. However, on sams part, hes not gonna be priority. Dumping him does nothing. We are still at minimum 26M over the 2nd apron next year. Dumping Sams contract doesnt fix that. Nor does dumping PP in addition to that.
Theres only 5 players we can dump to get under the 2nd apron: jt, jb, d.white, kp and jrue. As you said the Js are untouchable. I agree unless JB asks out. D.white IMO is also untouchable. So its down to KP and Jrue. The more replaceable player there IMO is jrue. Hes older too. now, the follow up question here is a comp of KP vs. jrue. Is KP the one thats easier to replace with neemi, luke or al?
Win another or not I believe Sam and KP or Jrue will be gone, but don't we have to match salaries in a deal, and when over the cap can't aggregate multiple players for 1, so there's some additional work to do? Only Al's $9.5M drops off , Hausers $10M kicks in, D White an $8M bump, JT $10M. Holiday's $32M, $35M, $37M over the next 3 are looking to be a big overpay, like Al with Philly? I expect Al will retire. Think we have seen it looks like Schierman can fill Sam's role for a lot less. Luke could chase a big dollar offer with his level of play that the C's cant match
I expect Al to continue playing. Hes still playing at a high level. I think 2 more years. Just a question of can we convince him to take a discount (vet min) to stay. Agreed on baylor. The scenario where we move sam on top of jrue is in case we need to allocate more money to al AND luke above what i stated earlier.
Luke can certainly do what you said but IMO unless he is offered a significant upgrade over what we can pay him (say 10-12M), he stays. It was reported someone offered him the TPMLE last offseason (5M) and luke decided to sign with us for the vet min. Hes not going to uproot his family for a paltry increase (3+M). since we can offer him 6M if jrue is dumped, hes not leaving unless someone decides to use their MLE on him.
if we dump jrue for a vet min (32M), this gives us an extra 6M to work with for increasing luke and Al's extensions. maybe al takes the vet min then we can resign luke to 6M per.
IMO supermaxes are always overpays but they were a necessary evil. JB looks to be an overpay. Jrue is an overpay given his age. D.white IMO is our most valuable contract and shouldnt be traded. I'm not worried about extending KP as he has already verbalized being willing to take a discount to stay in boston. He already turned down an 80M offer from brad and signed for 60M in his recent contract.
Same being gone does nothing cap wise. Even when combined with PP. So i doubt hes traded unless we want to bring a certaib player in. one of kp, jrue, jb, jt or d.white is enough. I think its going to be jrue but i've seen people have valid arguments for KP and JB.
The cap situation next year as per spotrac is we are approximately 18M over the 2nd apron with 11 players locked in. We have to fill in those last 3 spots with rookies/vet mins. That would cost approximately 8M. this assumes al, luke and craig are gone or assumes luke and al have resigned for vet mins.
this means we need to get rid of someone making at least 26M. Thats only jb, jt, d.white, kp or jrue. Sam and pp only combines for 18M.
What type of comparison did you want, considering all of the guys you just named play completely different roles in different positions? How are you supposed to quantify that in terms of VORP?
The Celtics just swept an entire road series for the first time in history, and apparently that's still not enough.
The 6-0 road sweep here is irrelevant. Happy for the win. The question i have is for the offseason. I'm trying to figure out if ownership does decide get to get us below the 2nd apron, who should be the guy who's cut?
I think similar to what you did for Jrue but show al, luke or sam as well. The different roles and positions IMO dont matter as when i've seen Joe sit we've seen him start one of these 3. We've ether gone double big or triple wing. Hes also started pp but that was just 1 game so i'm skipping that.
basically, i was hoping to see, if we had to lose one due to 2nd apron, is losing jrue really that devastating? if yes, how does losing KP instead compare to that? I guess the real question i:m trying to get answered is if we had to get rid one of the 5 starters, who should it be and why? While keeping in mind their possible replacements in terms of production, structure, etc.
Role 100% matters in the context of comparing players, as does position. How can you compare what Luke does to what Jrue does in this context? Like that changes everything, from rotations, to sub patterns, to actions, to defensive structure.
I think this is missing the forest for the trees. but also perhaps this is your answer. Jrue is someone we must never give up/trade. My question can be simplified to: factoring everything (role, performance, age, replacements, etc), due to 2nd apron constraints, if we have to get under the 2nd apron (which means give up 1 of jb, jt, jrue, kp or d.white), who do we give up and why?
if your answer is not jrue, not jt, not jb if i'm understanding your initial comments correctly its between KP and d.white. who between those 2 then?
As fans, it's sometimes hard to avoid "what have you done for me lately" syndrome when evaluating players. Jrue's numbers and consistency are not the same as last year. But for outsiders, it's difficult to factor in things like injury, fatigue (Olympics), work ethic, locker room contributions, etc. Adam's analysis helps shed light on some of the other intangibles that don't show up in a box score.
Over the past 10 games, Holiday's PPG, 2p%, assists and rebounds are nearly identical to last season. He's turned the ball over 9 times in 334 minutes. He's a +10.5. 3-pt% is still up and down. He was 2-for-5 and 5-for-7 the last 2 games. Maybe tonight will say something about whether or not this is the start of a trend.
At the end of the day, this Celtics team isn't careening toward the trade deadline with major question marks. They aren't under any pressure to make corrections right now. Hopefully we're celebrating #19 in 2.5 months. If not, management will have to take a hard look at what exactly went wrong and choose a path to fix it.